外文翻譯----財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文（設(shè)計(jì)）</p><p>　　外 文 翻 譯</p><p>　　Financial Risk Management</p><p>　　Although financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management a

2、re not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneou

3、sly, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest r</p><p>　　What Is Risk

4、?</p><p>　　Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, al

5、though they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.</p><p>　　Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has fin

6、ancial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.</p><p>　　Risk is the likelihood of

7、losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put anot

8、her way, risk is the probable variability of returns. </p><p>　　Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identify

9、ing exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.</p><p>　　How Does Financial Risk?</p><p>　　Financial risk arises through countless transactions of

10、a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the

11、 energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or other

12、wise</p><p>　　There are three main sources of financial risk:</p><p>　　1. Financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange ra

13、tes, and commodity prices.</p><p>　　2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions</p

14、><p>　　3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systems</p><p>　　What Is Financial Risk Management?</p><p&g

15、t;　　Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent

16、 with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of

17、directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.</p><p>　　Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy

18、 of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.</p><p>　　Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and s

19、trategies work to reduce risk within the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.</p><p>　　Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are traded widely among fi

20、nancial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates,

21、exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.</p><p>　　The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by

22、speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who see

23、k risk and its associated opportunities.</p><p>　　The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of finan

24、cial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are di

25、fficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.</p><p>　　The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requi

26、rements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarize

27、d as follows:</p><p>　　1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.</p><p>　　2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.</p><p>　　3、Implement risk management strategy in a

28、ccordance with policy.</p><p>　　4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.</p><p>　　Diversification</p><p>　　For many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only

29、 on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset’s riskiness, but also its contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio to which it is added. Organizations ma

30、y have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result of risk diversification.</p><p>　　In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities for diversificati

31、on, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a po

32、rtfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.</p><p>　　Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks. Diversification among counterparties may

33、 reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails. Diversification of customers, supplie

34、rs, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management’s control. Although the risk of</p><p>　　Risk Management Process

35、</p><p>　　The process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evo

36、lve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.</p><p>　　The risk manageme

37、nt process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessa

38、ry to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholde

39、rs and their objectives and tolerance for r</p><p>　　Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it mig

40、ht be possible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the organization’s exposure and risk. Alternatively, existing exposures may be managed with derivatives. Another strategy for managing risk is to

41、accept all risks and the possibility of losses.</p><p>　　There are three broad alternatives for managing risk:</p><p>　　1. Do nothing and actively, or passively by default, accept all risks.<

42、/p><p>　　2. Hedge a portion of exposures by determining which exposures can and should be hedged.</p><p>　　3. Hedge all exposures possible.</p><p>　　Measurement and reporting of risks

43、provides decision makers with information to execute decisions and monitor outcomes, both before and after strategies are taken to mitigate them. Since the risk management process is ongoing, reporting and feedback can b

44、e used to refine the system by modifying or improving strategies.</p><p>　　An active decision-making process is an important component of risk management. Decisions about potential loss and risk reduction pr

45、ovide a forum for discussion of important issues and the varying perspectives of stakeholders.</p><p>　　Factors that Impact Financial Rates and Prices</p><p>　　Financial rates and prices are aff

46、ected by a number of factors. It is essential to understand the factors that impact markets because those factors, in turn, impact the potential risk of an organization.</p><p>　　Factors that Affect Interest

47、 Rates</p><p>　　Interest rates are a key component in many market prices and an important economic barometer. They are comprised of the real rate plus a component for expected inflation, since inflation redu

48、ces the purchasing power of a lender’s assets .The greater the term to maturity, the greater the uncertainty. Interest rates are also reflective of supply and demand for funds and credit risk.</p><p>　　Inter

49、est rates are particularly important to companies and governments because they are the key ingredient in the cost of capital. Most companies and governments require debt financing for expansion and capital projects. When

50、 interest rates increase, the impact can be significant on borrowers. Interest rates also affect prices in other financial markets, so their impact is far-reaching.</p><p>　　Other components to the interest

51、rate may include a risk premium to reflect the creditworthiness of a borrower. For example, the threat of political or sovereign risk can cause interest rates to rise, sometimes substantially, as investors demand additio

52、nal compensation for the increased risk of default.</p><p>　　Factors that influence the level of market interest rates include:</p><p>　　1、Expected levels of inflation</p><p>　　2、Ge

53、neral economic conditions</p><p>　　3、Monetary policy and the stance of the central bank</p><p>　　4、Foreign exchange market activity</p><p>　　5、Foreign investor demand for debt secur

54、ities</p><p>　　6、Levels of sovereign debt outstanding</p><p>　　7、Financial and political stability </p><p>　　Yield Curve</p><p>　　The yield curve is a graphical represe

55、ntation of yields for a range of terms to maturity. For example, a yield curve might illustrate yields for maturity from one day (overnight) to 30-year terms. Typically, the rates are zero coupon government rates. </p

56、><p>　　Since current interest rates reflect expectations, the yield curve provides useful information about the market’s expectations of future interest rates. Implied interest rates for forward-starting terms

57、can be calculated using the information in the yield curve. For example, using rates for one- and two-year maturities, the expected one-year interest rate beginning in one year’s time can be determined.</p><p&

58、gt;　　The shape of the yield curve is widely analyzed and monitored by market participants. As a gauge of expectations, it is often considered to be a predictor of future economic activity and may provide signals of a pen

59、ding change in economic fundamentals.</p><p>　　The yield curve normally slopes upward with a positive slope, as lenders/investors demand higher rates from borrowers for longer lending terms. Since the chance

60、 of a borrower default increases with term to maturity, lenders demand to be compensated accordingly.</p><p>　　Interest rates that make up the yield curve are also affected by the expected rate of inflation.

61、 Investors demand at least the expected rate of inflation from borrowers, in addition to lending and risk components. If investors expect future inflation to be higher, they will demand greater premiums for longer terms

62、to compensate for this uncertainty. As a result, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate (all else being equal), resulting in an upward-sloping yield curve.</p><p>　　Occasionally, the demand for sh

63、ort-term funds increases substantially, and short-term interest rates may rise above the level of longer term interest rates. This results in an inversion of the yield curve and a downward slope to its appearance. The hi

64、gh cost of short-term funds detracts from gains that would otherwise be obtained through investment and expansion and make the economy vulnerable to slowdown or recession. Eventually, rising interest rates slow the deman

65、d for both short-term and lon</p><p>　　Source: Karen A. Horcher, 2005. “What Is Financial Risk Management?”. Essentials </p><p>　　of Financial Risk Management, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.pp.1-22

66、.</p><p><b>　　財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理</b></p><p>　　盡管近年來金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大大增加，但風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理不是當(dāng)代的主要問題。全球市場越來越多的問題是，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能來自幾千英里以外的與這些事件無關(guān)的國外市場。意味著需要的信息可以在瞬間得到，而其后的市場反應(yīng)，很快就發(fā)生了。經(jīng)濟(jì)氣候和市場可能會快速影響外匯匯率變化、利率及大宗商品價(jià)格，交易對手會迅速成為一個問題。

67、因此，重要的一點(diǎn)是要確保金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是可以被識別并且管理得當(dāng)?shù)?。?zhǔn)備是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作的一個關(guān)鍵組成部分。</p><p><b>　　什么是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？</b></p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)給機(jī)會提供了基礎(chǔ)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和暴露的條款讓它們在含義上有了細(xì)微的差別。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是指有損失的可能性，而暴露是可能的損失，盡管他們通常可以互換。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)起因是由于暴露。</p><p>　　

68、金融市場的暴露影響大多數(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)，包括直接或間接的影響。當(dāng)一個組織的金融市場暴露，有損失的可能性，但也是一個獲利或利潤的機(jī)會。金融市場的暴露可以提供戰(zhàn)略性或競爭性的利益。</p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的可能性事件來自如市場價(jià)格的變化。事件發(fā)生的可能性很小，但這可能導(dǎo)致?lián)p失率很高，特別麻煩，因?yàn)樗麄兺阮A(yù)想的要嚴(yán)重得多。換句話說，可能就是變異的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)。</p><p>　　由于它并不總是可能

69、的，或者能滿意地把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)消除，在決定如何管理它中了解它是很重要的一步。識別暴露和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形式的基礎(chǔ)需要相應(yīng)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理策略。</p><p>　　財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是如何產(chǎn)生的呢？</p><p>　　無數(shù)金融性質(zhì)的交易包括銷售和采購，投資和貸款，以及其他各種業(yè)務(wù)活動，產(chǎn)生了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。它可以出現(xiàn)在合法的交易中，新項(xiàng)目中，兼并和收購中，債務(wù)融資中，能源部分的成本中，或通過管理的活動，利益相關(guān)者，競爭者，外

70、國政府，或天氣出現(xiàn)。當(dāng)金融的價(jià)格變化很大，它可以增加成本，降低財(cái)政收入，或影響其他有不利影響的盈利能力的組織。金融波動可能使人們難以規(guī)劃和預(yù)算商品和服務(wù)的價(jià)格，并分配資金。</p><p>　　有三種金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要來源：</p><p>　　1、金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)起因于組織所暴露出來的市場價(jià)格的變化，如利率、匯率、和大宗商品價(jià)格。</p><p>　　2、引起金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行為有

71、與其他組織的交易如供應(yīng)商、客戶，和對方在金融衍生產(chǎn)品中的交易。</p><p>　　3、由于內(nèi)部行動或失敗的組織，特別是人、過程和系統(tǒng)所造成的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　什么是財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理？</p><p>　　財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是用來處理金融市場中不確定的事情的。它涉及到一個組織所面臨的評估和組織的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略、內(nèi)部管理的優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)和當(dāng)政策一致時的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。企業(yè)積極應(yīng)對金

72、融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以使企業(yè)成為一個具有競爭優(yōu)勢的組織。它還確保管理，業(yè)務(wù)人員，利益相關(guān)者，董事會董事在對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)鍵問題達(dá)成協(xié)議。</p><p>　　金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理組織就必須作出那些不被接受的有關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的決定。那些被動不采取行動的戰(zhàn)略是在默認(rèn)情況下接受所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　組織使用各種策略和產(chǎn)品來管理金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。重要的是要了解這些產(chǎn)品和戰(zhàn)略方面，通過工作來減少該組織內(nèi)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受能力和目標(biāo)范圍內(nèi)

73、的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的策略往往涉及衍生工具。在金融機(jī)構(gòu)和有組織的交易所，衍生物廣泛地進(jìn)行交易。衍生工具的合約的價(jià)值，如期貨，遠(yuǎn)期，期權(quán)和掉期，是源自相關(guān)資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格。衍生物利用利率，匯率，商品，股票和固定收入的證券，信貸，甚至是天氣進(jìn)行交易。</p><p>　　這些產(chǎn)品和市場參與者使用策略來管理金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，與由投機(jī)者用來提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的杠桿作用是相同。雖然可以認(rèn)為，衍生工具的廣泛

74、使用增加了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，衍生品的存在使那些希望通過把它傳遞給那些尋求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及相關(guān)機(jī)會的人降低了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　估計(jì)財(cái)務(wù)損失的可能性是非常令人滿意的。然而，概率標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的理論往往在金融市場的分析中不適用。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)通常不會孤立存在的，通常會和幾個風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相互作用，必須認(rèn)真考慮在發(fā)展中國家的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是如何產(chǎn)生的。有時，這些相互作用是很難預(yù)測的，因?yàn)樗鼈冏罱K取決于人的行為。</p><p>　　金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管

75、理是一個持續(xù)不斷的過程。隨著市場需求的變化和完善，戰(zhàn)略必須得到執(zhí)行。有關(guān)的修改反映不斷變化的市場利率，變化的預(yù)期營商環(huán)境，或例如不斷變化的國際政治條件。一般來說，這個過程可以概括如下：</p><p>　　1、識別并優(yōu)先考慮關(guān)鍵的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　2、確定適當(dāng)?shù)娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)容忍程度。</p><p>　　3、按照政策實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理戰(zhàn)略。</p>&

76、lt;p>　　4、按需要衡量，報(bào)告，監(jiān)控和改進(jìn)。</p><p><b>　　多樣化</b></p><p>　　多年來，公司資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)的可變性僅僅基于其回報(bào)。與此形成對比的是,現(xiàn)代投資組合理論不僅考慮了一項(xiàng)資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而且是經(jīng)濟(jì)體總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的組合。由于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)多樣化，組織可以有機(jī)會來降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　在投資組合管理方面，在一

77、定限度內(nèi)給個別部件組合提供了多樣化的機(jī)會。一個多元化的資產(chǎn)組合中包含的回報(bào)是不同的，換句話說，彼此之間的關(guān)系是弱或負(fù)面的?？紤]到一個投資組合的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是非常有用的，并且應(yīng)考慮改變或增加的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的總數(shù)。</p><p>　　多樣化是一個管理金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要工具。通過預(yù)設(shè)的組織，對手之間的多樣化可以減少突發(fā)事件對組織所造成的不利影響而引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。其中投資資產(chǎn)多元化減少了發(fā)行人失敗的損失程度。多樣化的客戶、供應(yīng)商和金融來源

78、減少了一個組織的貿(mào)易被外面變化控制的負(fù)面影響的可能性。雖然損失的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然存在，多樣化的機(jī)會可以減少大的不良結(jié)果。</p><p><b>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過程</b></p><p>　　金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過程中的戰(zhàn)略使一個組織去管理與金融相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是一個動態(tài)過程，應(yīng)逐步發(fā)展成一個組織和它的生意。它涉及和影響了許多方面，包括國債，銷售，營銷，法律，稅務(wù)，商品組織和

79、企業(yè)融資。</p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過程包括內(nèi)部和外部分析。該進(jìn)程的第一部分包括確定和排列金融機(jī)構(gòu)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和了解其相關(guān)性。有必要審查該組織及其產(chǎn)品，管理，客戶，供應(yīng)商，競爭對手，價(jià)格，行業(yè)的發(fā)展趨勢，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)，并在行業(yè)中的地位。也有必要考慮利益相關(guān)者和他們的目標(biāo)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受能力。</p><p>　　一旦清楚地了解這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的出現(xiàn)，就可實(shí)施適當(dāng)?shù)牟呗詴L(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理政策。例如，有可能改變

80、的地方，從而減少該組織的暴露和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。另外，可能對現(xiàn)有的衍生工具進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。另一種經(jīng)營戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是接受所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和損失的可能性。</p><p>　　有三個廣泛的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理辦法：</p><p>　　1、什么都不做，在默認(rèn)情況下，積極或被動地接受一切風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　2、對沖一部分，通過確定那些可以而且應(yīng)該進(jìn)行對沖的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p&g

81、t;　　3、所有可能的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對沖。</p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的計(jì)量和報(bào)告提供給決策者與信息執(zhí)行者決定和監(jiān)測的結(jié)果，在它的前面和后面都采取策略來減輕。由于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)程仍在進(jìn)行，報(bào)告和反饋可以用來精化系統(tǒng)的修改或改進(jìn)策略體系。</p><p>　　活躍的決策過程是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的重要組成部分。討論潛在的損失和為降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的決策提供了一個討論重要問題與各種關(guān)于利益相關(guān)者的觀點(diǎn)的場所。</p>

82、<p>　　財(cái)務(wù)比率的影響因素和價(jià)格</p><p>　　財(cái)務(wù)比率及價(jià)格受多項(xiàng)因素的影響。關(guān)鍵是要了解影響市場的因素，因?yàn)檫@些因素，反過來影響到一個組織的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　影響利率的因素 利率是許多市場價(jià)格的主要組成部分和重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)晴雨表。它們是由真實(shí)利率加上通貨膨脹的預(yù)期成分組成的，因?yàn)橥ㄘ浥蛎浗档土速J款人的資產(chǎn)購買力。離到期日越近，它的不確定性就越大。

83、利率也是資金的供給和需求和信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的反射。</p><p>　　利率對企業(yè)和政府來說是非常重要的，因?yàn)樗麄兪琴Y金成本的關(guān)鍵因素。大多數(shù)公司和政府債務(wù)融資需要擴(kuò)展和基建項(xiàng)目。當(dāng)利率增加，對借款人有顯著的影響。利率也影響到其他金融市場的價(jià)格，所以他們的影響是深遠(yuǎn)的。</p><p>　　對利率的其他組件可能包括一個風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)，以反映借款人的信用。例如，政治或主權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的威脅可能導(dǎo)致利率上升，有時很

84、大，因?yàn)殡S著投資者需求的增加，額外的補(bǔ)償違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也會增加。</p><p>　　影響市場利率水平的因素包括：</p><p><b>　　通貨膨脹的預(yù)期水平</b></p><p><b>　　總體經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況</b></p><p>　　貨幣政策和央行的立場</p><p>&

85、lt;b>　　外匯市場活動</b></p><p>　　外國投資者對債務(wù)證券化的需求</p><p><b>　　外債突出的水平</b></p><p><b>　　金融和政治穩(wěn)定</b></p><p><b>　　收益率曲線</b></p>

86、<p>　　收益率曲線產(chǎn)量是一種圖形法，表示的是一系列條件成熟。例如，一個收益率曲線可能說明產(chǎn)量在(一天一夜之間成熟)30年里的關(guān)系。通常情況下，利率是零息政府率。</p><p>　　由于目前的利率反映的是預(yù)期的，收益曲線提供了有關(guān)未來市場預(yù)期的利率的有用信息。前向啟動利率的默示條款可以計(jì)算收益曲線的信息。例如，使用一兩個年到期利率，預(yù)計(jì)的一年期利率在一年的時間開始時才能確定。</p>

87、<p>　　對收益曲線的形狀進(jìn)行了分析和對廣泛的市場參與者進(jìn)行監(jiān)測。由于人們對它的期望，它通常被認(rèn)為是未來經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的預(yù)測和可能提供的經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面有待改變的信號。</p><p>　　一般產(chǎn)量的收益率曲線向上傾斜是具有正斜率，就像貸方或投資者要求更高的利率因?yàn)橘J款期限和借款人的持續(xù)的時間更長了。由于期限至到期日，借款人違約的機(jī)會增加，貸款人要求相應(yīng)的補(bǔ)償。</p><p>　　利率構(gòu)

88、成的收益率曲線也受預(yù)期的通貨膨脹率影響。除了借款人的貸款和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的部分，投資者要求借款人至少達(dá)到預(yù)期的通貨膨脹率。如果投資者預(yù)期的未來的通脹率會變得更高, 他們將會被要求延長還款期限，以彌補(bǔ)這種不確定性產(chǎn)生的更多的保費(fèi)。因此，期限越長，利率越高(在其它條件相同的情況)，一個向上傾斜的收益率曲線就產(chǎn)生。</p><p>　　有時，短期資金的需求大幅增加，短期利率可能上升超過了長期利率的水平。收益曲線向下傾斜，這是它的