中國(guó)gdp生產(chǎn)核算的基本情況及主要問(wèn)題the

1、中國(guó)年度生產(chǎn)法和收入法GDP核算 China’s Annual GDP Account by Production and Income Approaches,張冬佑國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局 國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)核算司 2010年3月16日Z(yǔ)hang DongyouDepartment of National Account, NBS16th March, 2010,主要內(nèi)容 Main Contents,一、產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)分類 Clas

2、sification of Industrial Sectors二、資料來(lái)源 Data Source三、行業(yè)增加值核算的具體推算方法 Specific Estimation Method of Industrial Value-added四、近期所做的主要改進(jìn) major improvements to be made 五、面臨的挑戰(zhàn) Challenges,,,,一、產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)分類 Clas

3、sification of industrial sectors,第一級(jí)分類直接采用國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局2003年制定的《三次產(chǎn)業(yè)劃分規(guī)定》，但在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中剔除國(guó)際組織部分。 The first level classification directly applies the “Regulation on Classification of Three Sectors ”promulgated by NBS in 2003

4、, but eliminating the international part in the third sector. 第二級(jí)分類基本上采用新國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)行業(yè)分類中的門(mén)類。 The second level classification basically applies the class categories in the new Classification of National Economic Ind

5、ustries.,產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)分類 Classification of industrial sectors,第三級(jí)分類基本上采用新國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)行業(yè)分類中的大類，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)分到中類行業(yè)，并增加了居民自有住房服務(wù)業(yè)。 The third level classification basically applies the section in the new Classification of National Economi

6、c Industries, putting real estate sector in group sectors and adding resident self-owned housing service. 第四級(jí)分類和第三級(jí)分類基本一致，同時(shí)根據(jù)多年來(lái)GDP核算數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)際需求情況，并參照其他國(guó)家的分類情況，對(duì)采礦業(yè)、制造業(yè)、電力、燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)進(jìn)行了細(xì)化 The fourth level clas

7、sification and third level classification are basically consistent, and at the same time, specifying the mining, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, gas and water by referring to the classificati

8、on practice of other countries.,年度GDP核算，按94個(gè)行業(yè)。 Annual GDP account, by 94 sectors.季度GDP核算，按14個(gè)行業(yè)。 Quarterly GDP account, by 14 sectors.,一、產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)分類（續(xù)） Classification of industrial sectors (cont.),二、資料來(lái)源 Da

9、ta source,國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù):普查數(shù)據(jù)，全面調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，抽樣調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)； National statistical survey data: census data, comprehensive survey data, sample survey data;部門(mén)財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：主要指2008年建立的18個(gè)部門(mén)服務(wù)業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況報(bào)表； Financial data of administrative de

10、partment: mainly refers to the financial statements of 18 service sectors established in 2008;部門(mén)行政記錄：財(cái)政數(shù)據(jù)，稅務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)人民銀行、保監(jiān)會(huì)、證監(jiān)會(huì)數(shù)據(jù)，工商局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，民政部數(shù)據(jù)等。 Administrative record of the sectors: financial data, tax data, dat

11、a of People's Bank of China, Insurance Regulatory Committee and Securities Regulatory Committee, of Industrial and Commercial Administration, and of the Ministry of Civil Affairs.,三、行業(yè)增加值核算的具體推算方法Specific estimation

12、 method of industrial value-added account,生產(chǎn)法 Production approach: 4個(gè)行業(yè)：農(nóng)業(yè)、林業(yè)、畜牧業(yè)、漁業(yè) Four industries: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing生產(chǎn)法和收入法混合 combination of production appr

13、oach and income approach： 工業(yè)中的39個(gè)行業(yè) 39 industrial industries 收入法 Income approach: 其余51個(gè)行業(yè) other 51 industries,三、行業(yè)增加值核算的具體推算方法Specific estimation method of industrial value-added account,季度 GDP

14、 Quarterly GDP 現(xiàn)價(jià)核算 Current price account 增加值率法：增加值＝總產(chǎn)出×增加值率 主要指標(biāo)外推法：增加值＝上年同期增加值 ×相關(guān)指標(biāo)速度 Method of value-added rate: value-added=t

15、otal output ×value-added rate Extrapolation method of major indicators: value-added= value-added of the same period of last year × the growth rate of relevant indicators 不變價(jià)核算 Constant price a

16、ccount 價(jià)格指數(shù)縮減和物量外推 Price index deflation and volume extrapolation,三、行業(yè)增加值核算的具體推算方法(續(xù))Specific estimation method of industrial value-added account (cont.),年度核算 Annual Account（一）直接計(jì)算法 Direct calculation m

17、ethod利用基礎(chǔ)資料直接計(jì)算該行業(yè)的總產(chǎn)出和增加值。 Directly calculating the total output and value-added by basic material.在農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)、鐵路運(yùn)輸業(yè)、郵政業(yè)、金融業(yè)、社會(huì)福利業(yè)等51個(gè)行業(yè)采用直接計(jì)算法，占94個(gè)行業(yè)的55％，占GDP 的63％。 Applying direct calculation method in the 5

18、1 sectors including agriculture, industry, railway transportation, post service, finance, and social welfare , taking 55% in the 94 sectors and 63% in GDP.,三、行業(yè)增加值核算的具體推算方法(續(xù)) Specific estimation method of industrial va

19、lue-added account (cont.),（二）增加值外擴(kuò)法 The method of value-added extrapolation首先利用基礎(chǔ)資料計(jì)算增加值，然后利用基準(zhǔn)年度（普查年度）基礎(chǔ)資料計(jì)算的增加值占該行業(yè)增加值的比重進(jìn)行外擴(kuò)，得到該行業(yè)的增加值。 First of all, the basic data is used to calculate value-added, and t

20、hen the ratio of value-added get from the basic data of basic year (census year) to the value-added of the whole sector is applied to extrapolate to get the value-added of the sector. 在建筑業(yè)、批發(fā)零售業(yè)、住宿餐飲業(yè)等31個(gè)行業(yè)采用增加值外擴(kuò)法，占94

21、個(gè)行業(yè)的33％，占GDP的33％ The value-added extrapolation method is applied in 31 sectors including architecture, retail and wholesale, and accommodation and catering.,三、行業(yè)增加值核算的具體推算方法(續(xù)) Specific estimation method of ind

22、ustrial value-added account (cont.),（三）相關(guān)指標(biāo)推算法 Estimation of relevant indicators以基準(zhǔn)年度（普查年度）總產(chǎn)出或增加值為基礎(chǔ)，利用能夠反映行業(yè)發(fā)展的一些指標(biāo)的發(fā)展速度，做為總產(chǎn)出或增加值的發(fā)展速度，進(jìn)行外推，得到該行業(yè)增加值。 Taking the total output and value-added of basic year (cen

23、sus year) as the basis, and applying the growth rate of the indicators reflecting the development of the industries as the growth rate of total output and value-added, to extrapolate and get the value-added of the indust

24、ry. 倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)業(yè)、計(jì)算機(jī)服務(wù)業(yè)、居民服務(wù)業(yè)等11個(gè)行業(yè)采用相關(guān)指標(biāo)推算法，占94個(gè)行業(yè)的12％，占GDP 的4％ The estimation method of relevant indicators is applied in the 11 sectors including storage, computer service and resident service, taking 12% in the 94 s

25、ectors and 4% in GDP.,四、近期所做的主要改進(jìn)Improvements to be made,（一）個(gè)體經(jīng)營(yíng)戶增加值核算方法發(fā)生變化 Changes have been taken place in the account method of the value-added of self-employed個(gè)體經(jīng)營(yíng)戶增加值根據(jù)稅收資料和清查戶數(shù)間接推算。 Indirect

26、 Estimation is made to the value-added of self-employed according to the tax data and the number of individual business. 基本方法是：首先計(jì)算每個(gè)行業(yè)的戶均稅收額，然后利用各行業(yè)普查戶數(shù)乘以戶均稅收額得到每個(gè)行業(yè)的稅收收入，再除以這個(gè)行業(yè)的規(guī)定稅率得到總產(chǎn)出，最后利用相關(guān)行業(yè)小規(guī)模企業(yè)的增加值率計(jì)算得到增加值。

27、 Basic method: First, the average individual business tax revenue of each sector is calculated, and then the tax revenue of each industry is get by the equation of number of census households multiplied by average

28、 individual business tax revenue, and after that the total output is get by being divided by the regulated tax rate, and at last, the value-added is calculated by applying the value-added rate of small-scaled enterprise

29、s of relevant industries.,四、近期所做的主要改進(jìn)（續(xù)） Improvements to be made (cont.),（二）改進(jìn)金融業(yè)總產(chǎn)出的計(jì)算方法Optimizing the calculation method of the total financial output 間接計(jì)算的銀行中介服務(wù)產(chǎn)出采用了2008年聯(lián)合國(guó)SNA推薦的參考利率法，即間接計(jì)算的銀行中介服務(wù)產(chǎn)出等于銀行從事存款活

30、動(dòng)獲得的間接收入加上從事貸款活動(dòng)獲得的間接收入。 The reference interest rate recommended by UN SNA in 2008 is applied to FISIM， e.g FISIM is equal to indirect income from deposit activity plus indirect income from lending activity. 銀行

31、業(yè)總產(chǎn)出和證券業(yè)總產(chǎn)出不再包含投資收益。 The total output of banking Industry and security Industry no longer include invest income.,四、近期所做的主要改進(jìn)（續(xù)） Improvements to be made (cont.),（三）完善證券交易印花稅的處理方法 Optimizing the treatment t

32、o the stamp tax of stock exchange 根據(jù)GDP核算原則，僅將機(jī)構(gòu)繳納的證券交易印花稅作為證券業(yè)的生產(chǎn)稅處理，個(gè)人從事證券買賣活動(dòng)繳納的證券交易印花稅不屬于證券業(yè)的生產(chǎn)稅。 According to the GDP account principle, only the stamp tax in stock exchange handed by institutions is t

33、reated as production tax, and the stamp tax in stock exchange handed by individuals involved does not belong to the production tax of security sector.,四、近期所做的主要改進(jìn)（續(xù)） Improvements to be made (cont.),（五）改進(jìn)了部分行業(yè)不變價(jià)增加值核算方法

34、The account method to the value-added of constant price of certain sectors is improved 金融業(yè) Finance --銀行業(yè):采用價(jià)格指數(shù)縮減法，利用存貸款利率和同業(yè)拆借利率構(gòu)建銀行業(yè)縮減指數(shù)； Banking: the deflator is established by price index deflation m

35、ethod and by applying the deposit and loan interest rate and inter-bank rate; --證券業(yè)：利用股票成交量的發(fā)展速度外推計(jì)算； Securities: volume extrapolating by applying the growth rate of stock exchange. --保險(xiǎn)業(yè)：采用物量外推與價(jià)格

36、指數(shù)縮減相結(jié)合的方法； Insurance: applying the combination method of volume extrapolation and price index deflation. --其他金融業(yè)：利用銀行業(yè)縮減指數(shù)縮減現(xiàn)價(jià)增加值獲得。 Other financial sectors: gained by applying the banking deflation

37、 index to deflate the value-added of current price.,四、近期所做的主要改進(jìn)（續(xù)） Improvements to be made (cont.),居民自有住房服務(wù) Owner occupied dwelling service 居民自有住房服務(wù)不變價(jià)增加值以居民住房面積作為物量指標(biāo)，采用物量外推法計(jì)算。 The value-added o

38、f constant price of Owner occupied dwelling service takes the resident living area as volume index and applies the volume extrapolation method to calculate.,四、近期所做的主要改進(jìn)（續(xù)） Improvements to be made (cont.),批發(fā)業(yè)不變價(jià)核算

39、 Account of wholesale trade at constant price 對(duì)于從事批發(fā)活動(dòng)的部分利用工業(yè)品出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)和原材料燃料動(dòng)力價(jià)格指數(shù)簡(jiǎn)單平均進(jìn)行縮減，對(duì)于與關(guān)稅有關(guān)的部分參考進(jìn)口價(jià)格指數(shù)進(jìn)行縮減。 To those engaged in wholesale activities, the simple average of the cost price of in

40、dustrial product and the dynamics price index of raw material and fuel is used to extrapolate, and to those related with the customs are extrapolated by referring to the export price index.,四、近期所做的主要改進(jìn)（續(xù)） Improvements to

41、 be made (cont.),教育、衛(wèi)生等非市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)的不變價(jià)增加值核算 Accounting the value-added of the non-market activities at constant price including education and health 根據(jù)不同的活動(dòng)內(nèi)容，利用相關(guān)指標(biāo)采用物量外推和價(jià)格指數(shù)相結(jié)合的方法核算。 According to diff

42、erent activity contents, the combination method of physical extrapolation and price index is applied to account.,五、面臨的挑戰(zhàn) Challenges,GDP核算的行業(yè)分類進(jìn)一步細(xì)化 Further specifying industrial classification of GDP Account充分

43、利用各部門(mén)行政記錄，全方位提高數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量 Fully utilizing the administrative record of various sectors, and comprehensively raising data quality如何發(fā)揮投入產(chǎn)出核算的框架作用 How to play the framework role of input and output account如何完