中國的人民幣匯率變動對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響 以對日出口為例【外文翻譯】

1、<p><b>　?。?011屆）</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)設(shè)計（論文）</p><p><b>　　外文翻譯</b></p><p>　　The Effect of China's RMB Exchange Rate Movement on Its</p><p>　

2、　Agricultural Export: A Case Study of Export to Japan</p><p>　　1 Introduction</p><p>　　Since the reform of Chinese RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in July 2005, Chinese RMB has been in fre

3、quent fluctuations and appreciating gradually. In this context, close attention has been paid to the impact of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's export. Since each industry has its own characteristics, th

4、e exchange rate movements may have different effects on different industries. Therefore,as Klein (1990) pointed out, the impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on exporttrade</p><p>　　hen as for China, wh

5、at is the effect of RMB appreciation and associated risks of</p><p>　　volatility1 on its agricultural export? A study on this issue has important academic and practical significance. On one hand, there are s

6、till no clear-cut theoretical and empiricalconclusions on trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations among the economiccommunity. Moreover, the vast majority studies have probed the trade effects ofexchange rate fluctua

7、tions in developed countries and have neglected the study on thosein developing countries like China. Developing countries have the characteris</p><p>　　Based on the above understanding, this paper, taking C

8、hina’s agricultural exports to Japan as an case, attempts to explain the impact of RMB exchange rate level changes and volatility on China's agricultural exports.</p><p>　　2 Brief literature review</p

9、><p>　　The study on the impact of exchange rate changes on agricultural trade is launched</p><p>　　first by Schuh (1974), which made the fundamental argument that the exchange rate was</p>&

10、lt;p>　　1 Exchange rate volatility may be defined as the risk associated with unexpected movements in the exchange rate(McKenzie, 1999). an omitted significant variable in economic analysis of the U.S. farm sector. Aft

11、er his pioneering research, a considerable amount of researches evaluated quantitatively the impact of nominal and real exchange rate on agricultural trade. In recent years, the representative research results includes S

12、usanti (2001), (2003), Gervais, Larue & Olivier (2004), Mathew, Terry </p><p>　　Some researchers sought the evidence of negative effects of exchange rate movements on agricultural trade in the level of p

13、roducts. From the early investigation of Robert & Richard (1981) on American wheat, cotton and soybean to recent investigation of Jose, Kranti & Koo (2006) and Li & Li(2005) on soybean, the researchers invest

14、igated the impacts of exchange rate movements of a number of countries on their major agricultural trade flows including barley, wheat, pork, cotton, coffee, cocoa, livi</p><p>　　In an era of floating exchan

15、ge rate system, there are conflicting arguments in theory on if the volatility risk of exchange rate impedes international trade: some models find support for the negative hypothesis yet other models have been derived to

16、 support the positive hypothesis. The results of empirical studies which have focused on the exchange volatility are no less confusing but most of them support the negative effects. Sheldon (2003), Gervais, Larue & O

17、livier (2004) etc. indicated that th</p><p>　　Third, developing countries should receive more concern in future studies. There is still a big difference of the exchange rate system between the developing cou

18、ntries and developed countries, and agricultural exports have played a more important role on developing countries’ economic development.</p><p>　　This section will construct a model on the basis of Kawai (1

19、981), Fabiosa (2002), Barkoulas & Baum et al (2002), Dekle & Jeong (2006). The impacts of both exchange rate level changes and the risk of exchange rate volatility will be incorporated into the model.</p>

20、<p>　　Data sources and processing</p><p>　　This paper employs bilateral agricultural exports from China to Japan on a monthly basis from January 2002 to April 2007. Seasonally adjusted real agricultural

21、 export revenue with base month January 2002 equals nominal export revenue in U.S. dollar deflated by the consumer price index (CPI) of the U.S. and the export price index. CPI comes from the International Financial Stat

22、istics and Direction of Trade of the IMF, nominal export revenue and the export price index from the Monthly Statistical </p><p>　　The monthly average of bilateral nominal exchange rate, defined as the RMB p

23、rice of the Japan yen, is calculated based on the bilateral nominal exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar and the Japan yen against the U.S. dollar. The data come from ERS of the United States Department of Agricu

24、lture. The exchange rate volatility is calculated by GARCH(1,1) model. Foreign price level equals the CPI of Japan from the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of International Affairs and Communications of</p><

25、p>　　中國的人民幣匯率變動對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響 以對日出口為例</p><p>　　摘要：本文試圖研究中國人民幣匯率變動和農(nóng)業(yè)出口波動之間的關(guān)系，文中構(gòu)造了一種模型來分析人民幣匯率變動對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口面臨兩個約束，包括中國特定的匯率制度和技術(shù)性貿(mào)易壁壘的影響 / SPS 的農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易。人民幣匯率變動的貿(mào)易凈額影響依賴于匯率水平比較的模型顯示更改 （升值或貶值) 的影響和匯率風(fēng)險影響。中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口以日本為例，這份

26、文件是一個實證的考試。GARCH (1，1) 模型被指定為衡量匯率波動及日常生活活動能力結(jié)構(gòu)中斷虛擬變量回歸估計基于結(jié)構(gòu)中斷單位根測試的結(jié)果。結(jié)果顯示人民幣對日元貶值將促進(jìn)出口增長，同時阻礙出口，和匯率波動積極促進(jìn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口到日本。出口對匯率波動的影響卻比導(dǎo)致一個負(fù)面的凈影響出口的匯率水平的小得多。此外討論了實證結(jié)果中所涉及的政策問題。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵字： 交換率 ；農(nóng)業(yè)出口 ；中國</p>

27、<p><b>　　引言</b></p><p>　　人命比匯率形成機制的改革在2005年7月一直頻繁波動。在這種情況下關(guān)注人民幣匯率變動對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響。每個行業(yè)都有自身的特點，匯率的變動對不同行業(yè)也有著不同的影響。因此，如 · 克萊因 (1990 年) 實際匯率波動對出口貿(mào)易的影響必須進(jìn)一步追究到商品級別中。一般來說，與普通農(nóng)產(chǎn)品制成品相比，它具有一種初始成本較

28、低并需要長期合同投資的特殊的行業(yè)性質(zhì)。人們普遍承認(rèn)匯率變動對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響是不同制成品貿(mào)易。謝科技 McCorriston （2002 年） 確認(rèn)實際匯率的不確定性與其它行業(yè)相比，在農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易上有更大的負(fù)面影響。然而對中國來說，在借鑒什么是 volatility1時研究人民幣升值對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口有什么影響。這一問題的研究有重要的學(xué)術(shù)和現(xiàn)實意義。然而現(xiàn)在任然沒有明確的理論與實證說明匯率波動對貿(mào)易的影響，此外絕大多數(shù)研究只探測了匯率波動在發(fā)達(dá)國

29、家中對貿(mào)易的影響，而忽視了對中國這樣的發(fā)展中國家的的研究。發(fā)展中國家與發(fā)達(dá)國家有不同的匯率制度，健全的外匯期貨市場，缺乏有效的金融衍生工具受到出口商的重要限制等。在中國，有兩個重要的制約因數(shù)：第一，中國運行特定的外匯管理系統(tǒng) ；第二，中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品</p><p><b>　　二 文獻(xiàn)回顧</b></p><p>　　匯率變化對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響研究是第一次發(fā)人起達(dá)爾 （1

30、974 年） 作出根本的匯率是 1 匯率波動可能被定義為與匯率 （1999 McKenzie) 意外運動相關(guān)的風(fēng)險說法。美國農(nóng)業(yè)部門的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析中省略了重要變量。他開拓的研究后大量研究的定量評估名義及實質(zhì)匯率對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響。近幾年的代表性研究成果包括奧利維耶熱爾韋，Larue 科技 · （2004 年） （2003 年） （2001 年） Susanti 馬修 ·，特科技 Agapi （2006） 等 … …不同的

31、實證方法和匯率變量被使用在這些研究中，達(dá)到共識： 匯率波動的影響大大妨礙了農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易流動，并與其他部門相比，這種負(fù)面影響是更明顯。一些實證文獻(xiàn)比較不同的匯率變化對農(nóng)業(yè)部門和其他部門。起，謝科技 McCorriston （2002 年） 和謝 （2003 年） 顯示不同的匯率變化影響機械、 化工、 其他制造業(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)。與其他部門相比，對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的負(fù)面影響，遠(yuǎn)比貿(mào)易總額或其他任何特定的部門研究。唐納德，毛里西奧科技 Bittencourt 報

32、 (2005 年) 發(fā)現(xiàn)不同部門間的匯率波動的影響，對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易大大不利。一些文獻(xiàn)只檢</p><p><b>　　三 數(shù)據(jù)來源和處理</b></p><p>　　本文采用雙邊農(nóng)業(yè)出口從中國到日本從 2002 年 1 月至 2007 年 4 月的每月基礎(chǔ)上。經(jīng)季節(jié)性調(diào)整的真正農(nóng)業(yè)出口收入基本月 2002 年 1 月等于名義出口收入美元，出口價格指數(shù)與美國的消費價格指數(shù)

33、 (CPI) 的冷遇。消費物價指數(shù)是來自國際金融統(tǒng)計和方向的貿(mào)易，國際貨幣基金組織、 名義出口收入和出口價格指數(shù)從每月統(tǒng)計報告對中國農(nóng)業(yè)的導(dǎo)入和導(dǎo)出。基于雙邊名義匯率的人民幣對美元和日本日元兌美元計算的雙邊名義匯率計算定義為在日本日圓匯價人民幣價格平均每月。數(shù)據(jù)來自美國農(nóng)業(yè)部的雇員再培訓(xùn)計劃。GARCH(1,1) 模型計算方法是匯率波動。外國的價格水平等于日本綜合統(tǒng)計科國際事務(wù)與日本通信。外國的需求相當(dāng)于日本每月工業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)從，Euro