外文翻譯---隱蔽性通貨膨脹的影響及其應(yīng)用 (2)

1、<p><b>　　中文2640字</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文（設(shè)計）</p><p>　　外 文 翻 譯</p><p>　　外文出處 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,2008,173-182 </p><p>　　外文作者 Cengiz K

2、ahraman,Tufan Demirel,and Nihan </p><p>　　Demirel </p><p><b>　　原文：</b></p><p>　　Effects of Inflation under Fuzziness and Some Applica

3、tions</p><p>　　Abstract:This chapter presents the ways of incorporating the parameter fuzzy inflation to the engineering economy analyses. Inflation is a financial parameter difficult to estimate. The fuzzy

4、set theory gives us the possibility of converting linguistic expressions about inflation estimates to numerical values. In the chapter, discounted cash flow techniques including these fuzzy expressions and some numerical

5、 examples are given. The obtained results show the interval of the worst and the best po</p><p>　　1 Introduction</p><p>　　Inflation is an increase in the amount of money necessary to obtain the

6、same amount of product or service before the inflated price was present. With the inflation in anytime prices rise and the purchasing power decreases, it takes more dollars for the same amount of goods or services. Defla

7、tion is the opposite of inflation. It has the oppositeeffects, with deflation prices decrease and the purchasing power increases. With the deflation, it takes fewer dollars in the future to buy the same amoun</p>

8、<p>　　Most people are undoubtedly aware that inflation has to do with price increases. What is perhaps less well-known is that the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat over time. Originally the word in

9、flation was used to describe a characteristic of money – that its value was eroded. This happens when all prices in an economy rise at the same rate over time. When all prices rise at the same rate,households’ incomes (f

10、or example wages) increase as much as their expenses. This means that h</p><p>　　Over time, however, the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat. Today it is often used synonymously with the words

11、 price increase and can there by describe any kind of price rises, not just increases in all prices. For example, one often hears of wage inflation, domestic inflation or imported inflation. None of these terms mean an i

12、ncrease in all prices. Rather, they refer to rises in the prices of certain specific goods or services.</p><p>　　The most common and most well-known measure of inflation is the change in the consumer price i

13、ndex - the CPI. The CPI is a so-called cost-of-living index or compensation index. This means that the CPI measures how consumers’ cost of living changes over time. If consumers’ incomes increase at the same rate as thei

14、r cost of living, their utility will be unchanged over time. The CPI is often used for exactly this purpose - as a basis for adjusting pensions or determining how compensation clauses in</p><p>　　To adjust f

15、or the effects of inflation in project evaluation, most authors prefer to use a general index, such as the Consumers Price Index. The reason is as follows: Since it is the investors' real income or purchasing power t

16、hat we seek to enhance,there is a slight advantage in choosing an index of Consumer Goods' prices such as the CPI. </p><p>　　The changeable value of currency is the reason of inflation. With the inflatio

17、n the currency value goes down. The inflation and deflation can be occurred as higher prices for food, cars, and other purchased commodities and services for the people. On the other hand for the business and government,

18、 inflation has eroded the purchasingpower of savings and earnings, if interest rates and salary raises have not kept pace with general price trends. </p><p>　　Inflation types are shown below:</p><

19、p>　　Cost push inflation: Increases in producers’ costs that are passed along to customers,sometimes with disproportionate escalations that push prices up. </p><p>　　Demand-pull inflation: Excessive spendi

20、ng power of consumers, sometimes obtained at the expense of savings that pulls prices up.</p><p>　　When the literature is searched, we can see that there are few works on fuzzy inflation.Kahraman and Tolga (

21、1995) examine the effects of fuzzy inflation rate on aftertaxrate calculations. De and Goswami (2006) present an EOQ model with fuzzyinflation rate and fuzzy deterioration rate when a delay in payment is permissible.<

22、/p><p>　　2 Relation between Inflation and Interest</p><p>　　Inflation affects everyone with some degree. The degree of inflation affects the consequences when inflation is mild, the economy prosper

23、s. When inflation is moderate,increased demand pulls prices still higher. When inflation is severe, prices rise much faster than wages do. When inflation is hyperinflation (this is the most dangerous level of inflation),

24、 this uncontrolled inflation destroys a nation’s economy (Park2006). Hyperinflation is a problem in countries where political instability, over</p><p>　　Most of the engineering economists are more interested

25、 in the effects of inflation than its causes and corrections. Due to inflation, a dollar assumes different values at different times. The dollars do not have the same value for yesterday, today and tomorrow. The engineer

26、ing economists have to predict the dollars’ values and organize their works by concerning with inflation and also they have to research what would happen if inflation became high level such as moderate or severe.</p&g

27、t;<p>　　2.1 Inflation Measurement</p><p>　　The measurement of inflation is difficult because the prices of different goods and services do not increase or decrease by the same amount, they change at d

28、ifferent times by the different amounts. The calculation of a general inflation rate can be changed by geographical differences in prices and different buying habits of consumers.</p><p>　　The whole sale pri

29、ce index, producer price index, and consumer price index are used for the measurement of inflation rates. The consumer price index is the most commonly used technique for the inflation rate measurement.</p><p&

30、gt;　　The whole sale price index (WPI): This index measures inflation at the whole sale level for both consumer and industrial goods.</p><p>　　Producer price index (PPI): This index measures average changes i

31、n prices receivedby producers of all commodities. On the other hand PPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid for selected goods and services used by producers(Blank and Tarquin 2002).</p><p>　

32、　Consumer price index (CPI): For calculation of CPI, prices for goods are obtained monthly and are averaged according to demographic distributions. Then the prices are weighted according to the expenditure proportions of

33、 the typical family (Park2006). CPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid for selected goods and services used by ultimate consumers (Blank and Tarquin 2002). In CPI seven different things are measured as f

34、ixed market basket of goods, foods and beverages,housing, app</p><p>　　2.2 Impact of Inflation</p><p>　　The analysts have to be interested in the impact of inflation on economic evaluations. The

35、re are two basic methods for researchers in the literature for consideration of inflation in their calculations.</p><p>　　Constant (real) dollars: All cash flows are converted to money units that have consta

36、nt purchasing power for eliminating inflation effects. It is generally easier to estimate future costs in constant dollars because the estimator is familiar with today’s values. On the other hand there are two weaknesses

37、 limiting the usefulness of the constant dollar: tax effects are ignored and no provision is made for differences inescalation rates among price and cost components (Biermann and Smidt 1990). It </p><p>　　Fu

38、ture dollars: In the amount of money units that are called future dollars actually exchanged at the time of each transaction for estimating cash flows. Future dollars are sometimes called then-current dollars, nominal do

39、llars, or actual dollars. It is denoted as “A$”</p><p>　　It is a simple matter to convert estimates in real dollar flow to actual dollar flow when inflation is assumed to be a constant rate. To make comparis

40、ons between monetary amounts which occur in different time periods, the different-valued dollars must first be converted to constant value dollars in order to represent the same purchasing power over time (Sharp-Bette an

41、d Park 1990).</p><p>　　As an economic evaluation, when the rate of inflation increases, there is a corresponding increase in the market interest rate. Inflation is differential rather than uniform. Goods’ an

42、d services’ prices do not always change proportionately. Including the effect of inflation is a second-order refinement for economic evaluations; the first-order refinement was the inclusion of the effect of taxes on bas

43、ic cash flow.</p><p>　　For eliminating weaknesses of the constant dollar approach, the analysts can use after-tax actual cash flow comparisons. In the literature, there are three different comparisons for ac

44、tual cash flows:</p><p>　　No responsive charges in after-tax analysis.</p><p>　　Multiple inflation rates in an after-tax analysis.</p><p>　　After-tax modified cash flow comparison.&

45、lt;/p><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　隱蔽性通貨膨脹的影響及其應(yīng)用</p><p>　　摘要：這個章節(jié)主要包擴隱蔽性通貨膨脹分析方法。通貨膨脹是一個難以估計的財政參數(shù)。隱蔽性通貨膨脹理論告訴我們?nèi)绾伪磉_通貨膨脹以及如何用數(shù)值表達隱蔽性通貨膨脹。在本章節(jié)中，忽略了現(xiàn)金流量的影響，表述了隱蔽性的概念以及列舉一些數(shù)據(jù)。結(jié)果顯

46、示在考慮了隱蔽性通貨膨脹后的最壞可能結(jié)果和最好可能結(jié)果結(jié)果的差距。</p><p><b>　　一、簡介:</b></p><p>　　通貨膨脹概念指的是貨幣的增長沒有與之對應(yīng)的相同數(shù)量的產(chǎn)品或者服務(wù)，在通貨膨脹下物價是當前物價。在通貨膨脹時期，隨著物價上升貨幣購買力會減少，將來將花費更多的美元才得到和今天相同數(shù)量的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)。通貨緊縮是通貨膨脹的對立面起到相反的效果

47、，當通貨緊縮時期，物價下降和貨幣購買力增加，將來將花費更少的美元得到和今天相同的數(shù)量產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)。通常情況下，政府面對通貨膨脹情況多于通貨緊縮的情況（Blank and Tarquin 2002,Sharp-Bette and Park 1990, Degarmo et al. 1990, G.nen 1990, Young 1993）。</p><p>　　毫無疑問，多數(shù)人認為通貨膨脹必伴隨物價增加。但很少有人知

48、道通貨膨脹一詞的意思已隨著時間的流逝發(fā)生改變了。最初通貨膨脹一詞用來描述價值被貶值的貨幣的特征。這發(fā)生在經(jīng)濟和物價同比增長的時候。所有物價以相同的比率上升時，家庭的收入（例如工資）增長和家庭支出相同。這表示家庭必須為相同的數(shù)量的商品支付更多的貨幣。然而，在物價上升相同比率時，家庭支出和實際的價值（效用）均不受其影響</p><p>　　隨著經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，通貨膨脹一詞的意思有所改變。現(xiàn)在通貨膨脹經(jīng)常被定義為當物價不同

49、增長時可以描述多種物價上漲，不只在所有物價相同比率增長的情況。例如，我們經(jīng)常聽說工資通貨膨脹，國內(nèi)通貨膨脹或進口通貨膨脹。這些并不意味著所有商品的價格都上漲。更確切地說，他們指的是某些特定產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)物價的上漲。</p><p>　　計量通貨膨脹的最多最常用的方法是消費者物價指數(shù) - CPI。CPI 是所謂的生活成本指數(shù)或補償指數(shù)。 CPI 是用來測量消費者生活成本隨著時間的變化而變化。如果消費者的收入和生活成本增

50、長相通，他們的效用隨著時間的流逝將是不變的。CPI 經(jīng)常被用來確定這樣的目標即用于調(diào)整養(yǎng)老金或確定協(xié)議的補償條款應(yīng)該怎樣的得到的補償數(shù)。</p><p>　　為調(diào)整項目評估中通貨膨脹的效果，多數(shù)作者喜歡使用一個常規(guī)的指數(shù)，例如消費者物價指數(shù)。理由如下：它是投資者的實際收入或我們試圖提高的購買力，這是使用CPI的一個好處。</p><p>　　貨幣的可變價值是通貨膨脹的原因。當通貨膨脹時，貨

51、幣價值下降。通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮更容易發(fā)生在如食物，汽車，等商品和服務(wù)物價上升時時候。在另一方面對商業(yè)和政府而言，如果利率和工資薪酬的增加沒有跟上一般物價的增長，那么通貨膨脹就會削弱了儲蓄和收入購買力。</p><p>　　通貨膨脹的類型如下：</p><p>　　成本推動通貨膨脹：生產(chǎn)者的成本增加轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費者,從而成本增長不成比例的拉動物價增長</p><p>　　

52、需求拉動通貨膨脹：過度的消費能力限制了儲蓄增長，從而帶動了物價的增長。</p><p>　　收索相關(guān)文獻，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)隱藏的通貨膨脹導(dǎo)致失業(yè)。Kahraman 和 Tolga（1995 年）計算了隱蔽通貨膨脹的稅后影響。De 和 Goswami（2006 年）發(fā)表了一個關(guān)于測量隱蔽性通貨膨脹率和延期付款后隱蔽程度的EOQ模型。</p><p>　　二通脹和利率之間的關(guān)系</p>

53、<p>　　通貨膨脹在一定程度上影響每個人。通貨膨脹程度決定了通貨膨脹的影響程度。在溫和通貨膨脹下，經(jīng)濟緩慢增長，日益增加的需求拉動物價。在惡性通貨膨脹下，物價上漲高于工資上漲。當處在惡性通貨膨脹時（惡性通貨膨脹是通貨膨脹之中危險水平最高的），不受控制的通貨膨脹摧毀一個國家的經(jīng)濟水平 ( Park2006 )。當一個國家政治不穩(wěn)定、政府過度支出、國際貿(mào)易失衡，等等（夏普-Betteand 公園 1990 年）將出現(xiàn)惡性通貨膨脹

54、的問題。當一國政府經(jīng)濟上出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹時，首先該國信用貸款水平受到限制，其次工資水平受到限制，貨幣供給量減少，稅收增加需求減少或稅收減少需求增加，說服管理當局增加投資或提高工資水平來刺激生產(chǎn)力從而帶動商品供給，在另一方面，為了減少通貨膨脹，國家也可以通過控制銀行和公司來控制現(xiàn)金的流入量和流出量</p><p>　　比起通貨膨脹的原因和改進方法，大部分經(jīng)濟學(xué)家對通貨膨脹的影響更感興趣。由于通貨膨脹，一美元呈現(xiàn)不同的價

55、值在不同的時期：一美元的價值在昨天，今天和明天各不相同。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家必須預(yù)測美元的價值，開展工作關(guān)心通貨膨脹，而且他們必須研究：如果通貨膨脹程度上升到更高水平比如惡性通貨膨脹時，將會發(fā)生什么。</p><p><b>　　2.1通貨膨脹計量</b></p><p>　　通貨膨脹的計量是困難的，那是因為不同商品和服務(wù)的價格增加或減少的幅度不同，它們在不同時期發(fā)生不同的改變。

56、在計算一般通貨膨脹率時，會受到不同區(qū)域的物價水平和不同區(qū)域的消費習(xí)慣的影響。</p><p>　　批發(fā)物價指數(shù)(WPI)：這個指數(shù)以生成的所有商品和消費來計算通貨膨脹。</p><p>　　生產(chǎn)者物價指數(shù) (PPI)：這個指數(shù)從所有商品的生產(chǎn)者角度的計算物價的平均變化。另一方面， 生產(chǎn)者物價指數(shù)（PPI）也是用來計算用于生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品和提供勞務(wù)所支付的價格變動的一個綜合指標(Blank and

57、Tarquin 2002）。</p><p>　　消費者物價指數(shù) (CPI)：每月會根據(jù)人口分布水平情況計算物價的平均數(shù)。然后以這個物價平均數(shù)為基礎(chǔ)根據(jù)家庭情況和家庭支出比例 計算CPI的數(shù)值( Park2006 )。 CPI 是測量在為被最后的消費者使用的指定的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)被支付的物價方面的變化的一種合成物（Blank and Tarquin 2002）。在 CPI 計算時，將從七個不同方面計算：固定市場下的物價

58、水平，食物和飲料，住房，衣服和保養(yǎng)，運輸，醫(yī)療，娛樂，其他（教育，個人衛(wèi)生，等等）。CPI也體現(xiàn)了既定生活標準下的零售價格的變動影響</p><p>　　2.2通貨膨脹的影響</p><p>　　分析員關(guān)心評估通貨膨脹對經(jīng)濟的影響。有二種基本模式被用來計算通貨膨脹的影響。</p><p>　　不變幣值模式：通過將所有的現(xiàn)金流量以固定的物價水平和固定的購買力轉(zhuǎn)換為貨幣

59、來消除通貨膨脹的影響。通常情況下，更容易以不變的貨幣水平來預(yù)計未來的成本，因為這種預(yù)計建立在當前的價值水平上。另一方面使用不變幣值也存在兩個弱點：忽略了稅收影響和沒有提供物價和成本構(gòu)成 ( Biermann 和 Smidt 1990) 。這種模式表示為“R$”。</p><p>　　未來幣值模式：在稱為實際上為了估計現(xiàn)金流量在每筆交易時被兌換的將來價值金額的單位。被表示如“A$”</p><p

60、>　　這是一件簡單事情：在通貨膨脹呈現(xiàn)一個固定比率時，將在實際流通中的貨幣轉(zhuǎn)換為實際貨幣。為了比較不同時期的貨幣水平，不同的貨幣價值首先必須轉(zhuǎn)換為隨著時間的流逝但購買力不變的固定幣值（Sharp-Bette and Park 1990）。</p><p>　　作為一個經(jīng)濟預(yù)測值，當通貨膨脹率上升時，市場利率方面也相應(yīng)增長。通貨膨脹存在差別并非一致。商品的價格變動和服務(wù)的價格變動總是不成比例。通貨膨脹影響是對

61、于經(jīng)濟估計的再次改進；首次經(jīng)濟估計改進在與稅收的基礎(chǔ)現(xiàn)金流量。</p><p>　　為了改進不變幣值的缺點，分析師可以比較稅后的實際現(xiàn)金流量，因此有三種不同方法計算實際現(xiàn)金流量：</p><p>　　不考慮相應(yīng)費用的稅后分析</p><p>　　復(fù)合通貨膨脹率的稅后分析。</p><p><b>　　稅后現(xiàn)金流量比較。</b&