滑坡預(yù)測預(yù)報(bào)模型比較分析.pdf

1、哈爾濱工程大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文滑坡預(yù)測預(yù)報(bào)模型比較分析姓名：許春青申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：結(jié)構(gòu)工程指導(dǎo)教師：王濱生20110305滑坡預(yù)測預(yù)報(bào)模型比較分析AbstractChinaisalandslidepronecountry，andlandslidehascausedenorinouslossesoflifeandpropertyeveryyearLandslideasaveryseriousandwidespreadglobalnat

2、uraldisasterhasbecomeamajorproblemwhichcannotbeignofedLandslideforecastingandpredictionisoneofthemosteffectivemethodsandwaysteducelosseswhichhasimportantguidingsignificanceforthepreventionandmanagementoflandslides，theref

3、ore，forecastingandpredictionoflandslideshasaveryimportantengineeringvalueandsignificanceInthethesis，thetheoriesandmethodsoflandslidehazardforecastingandpredictionhavebeensystematicallyreviewedonthebasisofextensivereading

4、Firstly，onthebasisoftheformationmechanismandthenaturedevelopmentofevolutionaryprocesses，theinfluencingfactorsandthetypesoflandslidehavebeensummarizedandclassifiedsystematicallySecondly，onthebasisoftheresearchoflandslidef

5、orecastingandprediction，theprogramoflandslideforecastingandpredictionhasbeenobtainedBasedonthecurrentdevelopmentofthelandslideforecastingandpredictionthemodelingtheoryofmodelsoflandslideforecastingandpredictionhasbeendes

6、cribedafteraseriesofsystematicresearchandanalysis，moreovertheapplicationsandadvantages／disadvantagesofeachmodelhavebeensummedupThemodelshavebeencategorizedandobtainedthemodelclassifu：ationtablesFinally，usingthematerialof

7、thetypicalHuangCiLandslideExampleinYongJingCounty，GanSuProvince，China)，onthebasisofthedeterministicgreyGM(1，1)modelandnondeterministicsynergymodel，thecomparativeanalysisresultshavebeengivenbythenumericalexampleKeywords：l