俄羅斯出口增長的二元邊際與影響因素研究.pdf

1、These years, globalization progresses and investment are mobile, thus, it is ever moreimportant for economists and policy makers to understand driver forces of exports growth atthe micro-level: which products are being p

2、roduced and exported the most? Which firmspopulate the domestic economy? Are they successful in exporting? How are industriesinfluenced by exogenous shocks and policy problems?
　　Through the use of descriptivestatisti

3、cs and econometric analysis, this paper estimates and observes the trade performance ofRussia at the export level using micro-data.The case of Russia is interesting since the lastdecade and financial crises exposed suffi

4、ciently the vulnerability of Russia's export growthwhen it faced the external shocks.Basing on the Amurgo-Pacheco and Pierola's definitionand method, we applied the HS-4 international trade data for 2007-2012 years to de

5、scribe andanalyze the dual margin of Russia's export.We found out that Russia export growth mainlydepends onthe intensive trade margin, the share of extensive margin is very poor.Theobvious bias to the intensive margin o

6、f Russia helped us to see and understand the wick sidesof Russia's export structure and why it is easily affected with external shocks.
　　Moreover, we utilized the Gravity Model of Trade in order to understand the rea

7、sonbehind Russia's export flows.We tried to find out if the common gravity variables havesimilar effect on Russian exports the way they do for the most advanced states.As Russianexports consist mainly of raw materials, o

8、ne could assume that they behave differently fromthe exports of western countries.After examining the main sources of Russian growth inrecent years, we investigated the question of whether and under which conditions Russ

9、ia,being the resource-based economy, can sustain the proper growth performance.After this, wediscuss the required policies for successful development further.
　　The main findings of the paper are the following.Like ma

10、ny other countries, the growthof size of foreign markets and decreasing the trade costs (such as distance between thepartners) have notable positive effect on the change in probability to have more diversifiedand raised

11、export level.The Index of Freedom has also very significant effect among otherobserved determinants.All in this, the export performance of my country can be associatedwith internal problems with trade-related incentives