[雙語翻譯]--股票外文翻譯--股市與消費以中國為例（原文）

1、 1STOCK MARKET AND CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA Leslie Hau Senior Honor Thesis, Spring 2011 Economics Department University of California, Berkeley Thesis Advisor: Professor Adam Szeidl Acknowledgements: I would lik

2、e to thank Professor Adam Szeidl for his insightful comments and valuable guidance throughout all stages of my study in preparation for this honor thesis. The responsibility of all mistakes in this paper is mine. Please

3、 address all correspondence to: hauleslie@berkeley.edu 3 theoretical knowledge or empirical research on these issues in China. Despite China being the World’s third-largest national economy, its stock market is still at

4、 an immature developmental level and its financial system is rather fragile (Goldstein & Lardy, 2005). In this paper, I would compare the stock market returns of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) to the Standard &am

5、p; Poor's 500(S&P 500). I would also apply the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to capture the conditional variance as a measure of the volatility in the SSE market. Then, I w

6、ould test the relationship between stock market returns, volatility, and the urban and rural residents’ private consumption expenditure. The analysis would inform us whether China’s stock market variability would affect

7、 China’s consumer expenditure similarly to that observed in more developed countries. A. The Stock Market “Wealth Effect” The stock market in China has developed rapidly since the early 1990s. Within two decades, the Ch

8、inese stock market has become one of the largest Asian stock markets in terms of her market capitalization (over $500 billion as in 2004). This also explains its marked dramatic surge of influence on China’s financial ma

9、rket. The growing importance of the Chinese stock market suggests that any fluctuation in the stock prices in China might have direct and significant effect on the real economy. One proposed popular mechanism is the st

10、ock market “wealth effect,” which suggests that a stock market boom would increase consumption pressure, whereas a decline in stock market wealth would cause a slowdown in economic activities (Deaton, 1992). Especially

11、in 2008, the international financial crisis led to tremendous loss to investors around the world, including those in the Chinese stock markets. While developed countries’ real economy has been shown to be seriously affe