經濟專業(yè)外文翻譯---軟件產業(yè)和印度的經濟發(fā)展

1、<p><b>　　外文翻譯之二</b></p><p>　　The Software industry and India’s economic development</p><p>　　Asish Arora Suma Athreye</p><p>　　American Indian</p>&l

2、t;p>　　Information Economics and Policy, Vol.1(2001)</p><p>　　4. The growth of software and human capital formation: public and private investments in training and the rewards to an engineering education&l

3、t;/p><p>　　Though India has one of the largest numbers of scientists and engineers it also has some of the lowest rates of literacy in the world with 52% of the total working population that cannot read or writ

4、e. As Table 3 showed, despite the large total numbers of engineers, the numbers of engineers per million of population was smaller in India compared to several other countries. There is correspondingly an over-reliance o

5、n the existing stock of trained but underemployed engineers, for whose services a</p><p>　　A very large fraction of the employees of Indian software firms are graduates of engineering college. Most of the In

6、dian software firms interviewed by Arora et al. (2000) reported hiring only engineers. Data from a sample of nearly 60 software firms indicates that over 80% of their employees had an engineering degree. Only 13% were no

7、n-engineers trained in software development.14 In interviews, many firms categorically stated that they hired only engineers.</p><p>　　This preference for engineers was unremarkable, and of little consequenc

8、e, at the start of the industry, when its demand was small relative to the annual supply. India graduates over 160,000 engineers of all varieties. The sharp and sustained growth of the Indian industry has meant that by 1

9、998-99, the number of employees has climbed to nearly 250,000, and estimates suggest that this may have crossed 400,000 in 2000-2001. If the industry continued to grow at 50% per year, then even allowing for </p>

10、<p>　　These projections are consistent with other evidence. Wages in the software industry have grown at over 20% per annum and attrition rates are high. When asked in 1998-99 to list the top 3 problems they faced,

11、more than half of all firms (out of a sample of over 100 firms) irrespective of age, size or market orientations (either export or import) selected manpower shortage and employee attrition as the most serious problem aff

12、ecting them (Arora, et. al, 2000). Despite paying substantially above I</p><p>　　The public policy response has been to emphasize increased investments in engineering colleges, increased emphasis on informat

13、ion technology in engineering curricula and the creation of institutes of information technology (IIIT) along the lines of the better known Indian Institutes of Technology. Though superficially reasonable, this is not th

14、e answer. These investments are unlikely to have a significant affect on supply in the short run. Moreover, expanding such capacity faces the problem that</p><p>　　1995. Concurrently, the number of engineers

15、 with postgraduate training has also risen only slowly, from a little over 12,000 in 1987-89 to a little over 17,000 in 1990-92. Surveys of India’s premier technological institutions-the Indian Institutes of Technology (

16、IITs) show that a very large fraction of postgraduates from those institutions enter the Information Technology (IT) sector, in some cases as many as 90%!</p><p>　　Moreover, Table 6 below shows that the bulk

17、 of the Indian engineering capacity is located in just a few states – Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Further, the table also shows that the bulk of the capacity here is accounted for by “self fina

18、nced” colleges, where students receive a much smaller subsidy, if at all, compared with the state financed colleges. An interesting and hitherto unexplored question is the reason that the organizational innovation of sel

19、f- financing coll</p><p>　　We believe that although investments in engineering education are necessary, a bigger part of the solution lies in a more efficient use of existing human capital resources. Implici

20、t in the discussion thus far is that only engineering graduates are well suited to perform the tasks required. This assumption appears to have shaky foundations. First, the bulk of the engineers working in the industry a

21、re not, in fact, trained in software engineering, computer science or related disciplines. Further, </p><p>　　When pressed, most of the managers agreed that they did not require engineers: Bright graduates f

22、rom any field could, with proper training, do what was needed. It seems that the preference for engineers is in some cases a way of signaling quality to customers. As one CEO put it “Take somebody from a good college (an

23、y of the top 20 colleges in India), give him 3 months of orientation and they are ready to take up a programming assignment. I don’t need all these engineers…. But I don’t want to be </p><p>　　(From Sloan Re

24、port, Arora et al 1999)</p><p>　　This is a clear instance of a “race to the top”. With limited market power, Indian software exporters try to distinguish themselves from the competition by pointing to the qu

25、ality of their processes and people, and when possible, their experience.</p><p>　　Firms also have quality concerns. Some managers we interviewed believe that an engineering education imparts a set of proble

26、m solving skills, methods of thinking logically and learning tools that help quick adaptation to changes in technology, domains and tasks. Since Indian firms provide services across a range of platforms and domains, this

27、 is an important asset. Another important consideration has to do the quality signaling in the labor market. The Indian education system is such that compet</p><p>　　If so, this is certainly an inefficient a

28、llocation of resources.17 Indeed; the software industry has been growing in part by drawing away engineers from other industries. In our interviews we came across a number of instances of engineers with highly specialize

29、d training (such as VLSI design or satellite systems) working on tasks such as database design or development of business application software. Quite a few senior level engineers were drawn from a variety of public secto

30、r research and deve</p><p>　　The clearly increasing payoffs to human capital are also inducing greater investment in human capital. The Indian middle class has always relied upon education, particularly prof

31、essional education such as engineering or medicine as means of economic advance. However, with a slowly growing economy, the returns to such investments have not been very high. The precarious state of public finances ha

32、s limited the ability of the central and state governments to expand tertiary education. The rapid gro</p><p>　　Private training institutions train individuals specifically for work in software development.

33、NASSCOM sources estimated that there were 3800 such training firms in 1998, in what was then a $300 million market, although together NIIT and Aptech are believed to have 70% of the software training market. Private trai

34、ning institutes are also important for helping existing software developers acquire new skills. Many engineers also undertake further training in software development on their own from </p><p>　　It is also n

35、oteworthy that this is a private sector response to a market opportunity, namely the demand for training in specialized skills. In the US and elsewhere, for profit firms compete with a variety of public institutions, suc

36、h as state and community colleges in the US. In India, the rapid growth of private training institutes testifies to the changed economic climate and the channeling of entrepreneurship into economically productive areas a

37、way from mere rent-seeking. This change, too, ow</p><p>　　To sum up the foregoing, we believe the evidence indicates that until recently, an excess supply of trained engineering talent was a significant sour

38、ce of competitive advantage for Indian firms. By the same token, it provided few incentives for firms to economize on the use of skilled engineering talent. Instead, the growth of the industry and high salaries have attr

39、acted not only newly graduating engineers but also engineers, managers and other professionals from other industrial sectors.</p><p>　　Despite this, the explosive growth in the software industry has lead to

40、a stage where firms recognize that skilled engineers, software professionals and good managers are a scarce resource. Moreover, faced with a number of attractive options including a move overseas, these talented engineer

41、s and managers are looking for more money and a more professional and rewarding work environment. In turn, this entails a variety of organizational changes we discuss below.</p><p>　　軟件產業(yè)和印度的經濟發(fā)展</p>

42、<p>　　Asish Arora Suma Athreye</p><p><b>　　美國 印度</b></p><p>　　《信息經濟學和政策》，2001年第一期</p><p>　　4、軟件行業(yè)的發(fā)展和人力資本的形成：在教育方面的私人和公共投資和工程教育回報</p><p>　　盡管印度擁有世

43、界上最多的科學家和工程師，但是其由于52%的工作人員無法讀寫，而同時成為世界上識字率最低的國家。正如表3所示，盡管有大量的工程師，但是印度每百萬人口里工程師的數量還是低于其他一些國家。由于緩慢增長的干預型經濟不能產生對工程師的足夠需求，相應的就有對現存但未被雇用的工程師的過度依賴。</p><p>　　大部分的印度軟件公司的職員都畢業(yè)于工程學院。根據Arora et al. (2000)的報告，大部分被訪企業(yè)只雇

44、用工程師。60家軟件公司的調查數據顯示，超過80%的公司雇員有工程師學位，只有13%是在軟件發(fā)展中被培訓起來的非工程師。在采訪中，很多公司明確表示他們只雇用工程師。 </p><p>　　在軟件行業(yè)發(fā)展的初期，由于需求遠遠小于每年的供給量，這種對工程師的偏好并不明顯或者不導致什么后果。印度總共有160，000各種各樣工程類畢業(yè)生。印度產業(yè)穩(wěn)定而快速的發(fā)展意味著在1998年和1999年間，被雇傭者的數量將會累計到近

45、250.000，預計將會在2000到2001年間突破400，000。即使軟件產業(yè)每年以50%的增長率增長，甚至假設生產力提高，軟件產業(yè)似乎還是會將出現工程師供不應求的局面。（參考 Arora, Asundi 和 Fernandes,《2000年細節(jié)》。） </p><p>　　這些預言得到證據支持。軟件產業(yè)的工資率每年以20%的增長率在增長，同時人員損耗率也是相當的高。當在1998年至1999年間，當軟件產業(yè)被問

46、及列舉他們發(fā)展所面臨的三大問題時，超過一半的公司（以超過100的公司為樣本），不考慮公司的時間、規(guī)模和市場導向（出口或者進口），都不約而同的選擇了人員緊缺和人員損耗作為他們所面臨的最嚴重的問題。盡管愿意償付遠遠高于印度標準水平的工資, 很多企業(yè)最終還是發(fā)現難以吸引并且留住優(yōu)秀的軟件開發(fā)人才。</p><p>　　公共政策對此做出的反應是加強在工程學院上的投資，重視工程課程上的信息技術，和信息技術機構（IIIT）以

47、及更有名的印度技術機構的創(chuàng)建等。盡管從表面上來看這些舉措是合理的，但是實際上這并不能解決問題。這些投資根本不可能在短期內能顯著改善工程人員供給。同時，如此大規(guī)模擴容導致軟件產業(yè)發(fā)展趨向于抽調工程碩士和博士。一份最近對印度工程研究生教育的調查顯示，工程博士的數量已經從1987年的675位下降到1995年的375位。同時，擁有碩士頭銜的工程師的數量也只是緩慢增長，從1987-89年間的12，000位增長到了1990-92年間的17，000位

48、。對印度技術機構理工學校的調查顯示，大量的該校畢業(yè)生進入信息技術部門工作，有時甚至高達90%。</p><p>　　另外，表6顯示印度大部分工程學校集中在少部分的幾個州——Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh。同時其中大部分都是私立大學，在這些學校的學生收到的補助遠遠小于就讀于州立大學的學生。但是，私立學院并未能在國家的其它部分擴散開來是一個有

49、趣而費解的現象。我們只能大概的估計這部分歸因于文化和政治因素，部分取決于在其它州人力資本投資的低收益率。并非巧合的，南部和西北在經濟上確實是更發(fā)達。 </p><p>　　我們認為，盡管在工程教育方面的投資是必需的，但是解決問題的更有效的辦法應該是依賴于對現有人力資源的合理利用。在這場爭論中的隱含假設是只有工程類畢業(yè)生才能勝任軟件開發(fā)任務。這個假設技術顯然是不合理的。首先,大部分現在軟件產業(yè)工作的工程師事實上都是

50、沒有接受過在軟件工程、電腦科學或者相關領域等的訓練。其次，很大一部分工作是涉及到商業(yè)應用，數據庫等。事實上，最初大量的工作涉及到從一個運行平臺（通常如維護）到另一個運行平臺（如Unix平臺）的運用。這些工作只要求對軟件開發(fā)工具相當熟悉，但并不要求對電腦結構和運行系統(tǒng)具有很深的認識。最后，大部分的工作其實都是由一個個具有較低技術復雜性的小工程組成的。Arora et al（2000）在他們調查中發(fā)現，公司最重要的出口工程的中等規(guī)模是150

51、個人，但平均有510人。這表明典型的出口工程甚至更小。更有甚者，大約一半的工作在印度國內執(zhí)行，剩下的則在美國。</p><p>　　當迫于無奈，很多經理也表示他們并不需要工程師：聰明的畢業(yè)生只要經過適當的培訓，是能很快勝任何工作的。但是似乎對工程師的偏好是出于對顧客傳遞產品質量信號的考慮。正如某一CEO所說，“雇傭任何一個優(yōu)秀學府的畢業(yè)生（印度排名前20的大學中的任何一所），給他們三個月的培訓，他們就能夠勝任項目

52、任務。事實上，我并不是完全需要這些工程師……但是我卻不想在我的顧客中以雇傭非技術工程大學的畢業(yè)生而出名。”（來自《斯隆報告》，Arora et al 1999）。 </p><p>　　這是一個“競賽至上”的最好例子。受限于市場影響力，印度軟件出口商們總是試圖通過人才和生產過程質量，甚至可能的話，人才經驗等方面來使自己在競爭中脫穎而出。</p><p>　　企業(yè)也有出于質量方面的考慮。一些

53、被采訪的經理表示受過工程類專門教育涉及到一系列問題解決技巧、邏輯思考的方法和學習工具，這些都有助于（雇員）快速適應在技術、領域和任務方面的變化。由于印度公司提供的是跨領域和平臺的一系列服務，因此這些能力是很重要的資本。另外一個重要的考慮是工程教育背景是勞動力質量的信號指示。印度工程類教育體系是非常嚴格的，因而成功獲得工程類學位的畢業(yè)生至少顯示了智力和勤奮能力。軟件公司可能因此更看重的是這些素質而不是具體大量的工程類知識。 </p&

54、gt;<p>　　如果事實如此，那么勞動力市場的分配必定是缺乏效率的。事實上，軟件產業(yè)的發(fā)展部分是通過吸引來自別的產業(yè)的人才來實現的。在我們的采訪中，我們遇到大量的具有高度專業(yè)背景（如VLSI 設計和衛(wèi)星系統(tǒng)）的人從事諸如數據庫設計和商業(yè)應用軟件的開發(fā)。甚至有些高級工程師是來自政府研究和發(fā)展機構。這樣一種資源轉換是同我們先前假設的軟件發(fā)展在印度所具有的相對優(yōu)勢所吻合的。當然，印度經濟存在很多扭曲的地方，這些都是在解讀市場信

55、號時所應該警惕的。除了上述提到的改變經濟活動的組成，市場對工程師和經理人日益增加的需求也將影響經濟活動的組織。正如我們在第六部分以更多筆墨討論的那樣，對受訓過的工程師和管理人員的需求增加也將影響資本和勞動力（或者更確切的說物質資本和人力資本）之間的平衡，從而引發(fā)組織革新。</p><p>　　對人力資本更多的回報也引發(fā)了對其更多的投資。印度的中產階級，總是依賴于教育，特別是諸如工程師和醫(yī)生的職業(yè)教育，作為改善經濟

56、狀況的一種手段。然而印度經濟的緩慢增長，使這類投資的回報率顯得并不很高。政府公共財政的謹慎狀態(tài)也限制了中央和州政府擴張第三方教育的能力。然而，快速增長的軟件部門迅速分散。在軟件產業(yè)內發(fā)展最迅速的部門之一既是私人培訓。</p><p>　　私人培訓機構對個體在軟件開發(fā)工作方面進行專門培訓。NASSCOM 估計，在1998年，有3800家類似于的培訓機構，而市場潛力卻是有30，000，000美元，盡管其中的70%相信

57、被NIIT和Aptech所占領。私人培訓機構在幫助在職軟件開發(fā)員獲得新的技術上也是非常重要的。很多工程師也參加私人培訓機構進修。私人培訓機構在印度城市的出現，使軟件開發(fā)人員獲得這些機構的認證和證書的變得更加可能。</p><p>　　同時值得一提的是，這是私人部門對市場機會——對特殊技能訓練需求的反應。在美國和其它的國家，公司為了利益會和各種各樣的公共機構（如公立大學）進行競爭。在印度，私人培訓機構的快速成長，表

58、明經濟環(huán)境的變化和企業(yè)家行為從純粹的尋租向經濟效率性領域轉軌。這種轉變至少間接上是歸因于軟件產業(yè)的快速發(fā)展。</p><p>　　綜上所述，我們認為，直到現在，證據顯示受過訓練的工程類人才的過度供給是印度公司一個巨大的競爭優(yōu)勢。同樣的，這種過度供給也將導致公司缺乏人盡其用的激勵。甚至，產業(yè)發(fā)展和高工資不斷不僅吸引著新畢業(yè)的工程師，還吸引了包括工程師、經理和來自其它產業(yè)部門的專家。 </p><