外文翻譯--外商直接投資的流入與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)

1、<p>　　1827單詞，2057漢字，6830英文字符</p><p><b>　　外文翻譯 </b></p><p><b>　　原文 </b></p><p>　　Foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth of China Material

2、Source:ScienceDirect,Vol.32,No.1,2010 Author: Mah, Jai</p><p>　　1. Introduction </p><p>　　It has often been argued that FDI inflow is one of the driving forces of economic growth in developi

3、ng countries. Historical evidences are mixed. Of the so-called four east Asian tigers, Hong Kong and Singapore succeeded in attracting huge amount of FDI; however, South Korea and Taiwan did not attract it so much .</

4、p><p>　　Since economic reform in 1979, China has recorded remarkable economic growth rates; for instance, the annual average real GDP growth rate was as high as 8.3 percent during 1979-2001. In the meantime, Ch

5、ina has actively tried to attract FDI inflows. FDI flows into China increased from US$ 0.9 billion in 1983 to US$ 46.9 billion in 2001 Table 1. Chen, Chang, and Zhang 1995 evaluated that FDI had contributed to China’s po

6、st-1978 economic growth by augmenting resources available for capital formatio</p><p>　　2. Factual background </p><p>　　The investment atmosphere in China had not been friendly to foreign invest

7、ors until 1978. A new policy towards foreign investment allowing foreign firms to operate in China was proclaimed in 1979, which granted foreign investment a legal status in China Chen et al., 1995: 692. The Special Econ

8、omic Zones SEZs were established in the coastal areas, which granted the investors administrative support and tax benefits like profit tax reduction Park, 2002: 21. The decision to open up China to the worl</p>&l

9、t;p>　　Since Deng Xiaoping’s Southern Trip in 1992, China began to strengthen the market economy. Preferential taxation schemes were provided to foreign investors as well Park, 2002: 23. Consequently, FDI flows into Ch

10、ina began to increase substantially in 1992. In late 1997, China introduced various measures to attract FDI, including import tariff reductions and began to pro- vide preferential tax measure to the finance sector in 199

11、9 Park, 2002: 26-30. Although China attracted huge amount of FDI infl</p><p>　　3. Empirical evidence on the causality between FDI and economic growth </p><p>　　Alguacil, Cuadros, and Orts 2002 e

12、xamined the Granger causality from exports and FDI to output in Mexico. Their empirical evidence supported not only the export-led growth hypothesis but also the existence of an FDI-led growth relationship. Basu, Chakrab

13、orty, and Reagle 2003 found the bi-directional causality between FDI and GDP for open economies, while, for closed economies, although causality was bi-directional in the short run, it ran mainly from growth to FDI in th

14、e long run. Cuadros, Orts,</p><p>　　To examine the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth in China, this section uses the annual data for China during the period 1983?2001. The augmented

15、 Dickey? Fuller tests show that the levels of FDI inflows and real economic growth rates are not stationary at 5 percent level of significance. Optimal lags are chosen by Akaike’s final prediction error FPE criterion FDI

16、 and real GDP growth rate are revealed to be integrated of order two and one, respectively, at 5 percent leve</p><p>　　The null hypothesis in Pesaran and Shin’s 1999 test is the non-existence of a long-run e

17、qui-librium relationship among the variables, which can be denoted as H0 : h1 h2 0, against the alternative hypothesis that each of hi is not zero. Assuming the lag number to be one in the first differenced forms of the

18、concerned variables in Eq. 1, the calculated F2,9 statistics, 2.324, is not significant at any reasonable level of significance. Increasing the lag number up to four in the first differenced f</p><p>　　Since

19、 the cointegration tests reveal that there does not exist any long-run equilibrium relation- ship, I use the Granger causality test based on the first differenced data for real economic growth rate and the second differe

20、nced data for FDI inflows to reveal the causal relationship between the former and the latter. Table 2 shows the results of the Granger causality tests, where the number of lags are chosen by Akaike’s FPE criterion. Acco

21、rding to Table 2, the null hypothesis that FDI inflow d</p><p>　　4. Conclusion </p><p>　　For the past rapid economic growth process, China has attracted huge amount of FDI. Although the causalit

22、y between FDI inflows and real economic growth has important policy implications, it has seldom been analyzed with respect to China. The current study examines the concerned issue using Pesaran and Shin’s 1999 small samp

23、le cointegration test procedure allowing for different orders of integration and the Granger causality tests. The empirical results show that FDI inflows have not caused real </p><p><b>　　譯文 </

24、b></p><p>　　外商直接投資的流入與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)</p><p>　　資料來源:科學(xué)指南。32卷,1期,2010年 作者:Mah,Jai</p><p><b>　　簡(jiǎn)介 </b></p><p>　　人們常常認(rèn)為,外商直接投資的流入是發(fā)展中國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)迅猛增長(zhǎng)的強(qiáng)勁驅(qū)動(dòng)力之一。然而歷史證據(jù)卻是喜憂

25、參半。在所謂的亞洲四小龍中,香港和新加坡成功地吸引了數(shù)額巨大的外商直接投資;但是,韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣并沒有像它們一樣吸引這么多的外商直接投資。自從1979年改革開放以來,中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率顯著提高。例如:在1979年到2001年間,中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的實(shí)際年平均增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá)8.3%。與此同時(shí),中國(guó)實(shí)施積極的引資政策,吸引外商直接投資的大規(guī)模涌入。進(jìn)入中國(guó)的外商直接投資總額從1983年的9億美元到2001年的469億美元。有學(xué)者在1995年評(píng)價(jià)說:外商

26、直接投資通過資本的不斷充實(shí)和出口的持續(xù)順差促進(jìn)了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng)。同時(shí),對(duì)于外商直接投資的流入情況和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)的因果關(guān)系問題,卻很少有學(xué)者對(duì)其進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)地研究分析。雖然,有學(xué)者通過數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查研究表明,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致外國(guó)投資的大量涌入,而這種投資并不僅限于外商直接投資。德什在2001年運(yùn)用一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的模型表明了外商直接投資對(duì)一國(guó)的產(chǎn)品輸出具有長(zhǎng)期的影響。 </p><p><b>　　事實(shí)背景

27、</b></p><p>　　從1978年開始,中國(guó)的投資環(huán)境對(duì)外國(guó)投資者變得友好起來。一個(gè)面向外國(guó)投資者的新的政策開始出臺(tái),那個(gè)政策授予了外商投資者在中國(guó)投資的合法地位。并且中國(guó)開始在沿海設(shè)立經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū),給予那些在特區(qū)進(jìn)行投資的外國(guó)投資者們以稅收和政策上的便利和優(yōu)惠,比如稅收的減免等。這個(gè)將中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)向全世界開放的政策在1982年被正式納入中國(guó)的憲法。在1984年,中國(guó)其他的14個(gè)沿海城市和海南島都被劃

28、為經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)。到1985年,中國(guó)沿海建立了三角形的區(qū)域發(fā)展模式,極大地鼓勵(lì)了外國(guó)商人在中國(guó)的投資。特別是對(duì)在經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)投資的外國(guó)商人,中國(guó)政府提供了十分優(yōu)惠的稅收政策,吸引大量的外商直接投資涌入中國(guó),雖然這些措施在一開始并沒有發(fā)揮出太大的作用。自從鄧小平于1992年進(jìn)行南巡后,中國(guó)政府開始注重市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。中國(guó)優(yōu)惠的稅收政策給外國(guó)投資者提供了一個(gè)極佳的投資環(huán)境。因此,進(jìn)入中國(guó)的外商直接投資從1992年開始大幅度的增加。在1997年年底,中

29、國(guó)政府不斷出臺(tái)了各種政策以吸引外商來華投資,包括降低外國(guó)進(jìn)口商品的關(guān)稅稅率等,并在1999年開始實(shí)施西部大開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略,以吸引更多的外資。雖然中國(guó)吸引了大量外商直接投資的流入,但是,到199</p><p>　　關(guān)于外商直接投資的實(shí)證研究與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)的因果關(guān)系 </p><p>　　有學(xué)者在2002年以墨西哥的數(shù)據(jù)為例研究了格蘭杰因果關(guān)系在產(chǎn)品輸出和外商直接投資之間的作用。他們的實(shí)證研究

30、結(jié)果不僅支持了產(chǎn)品出口可以拉動(dòng)一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)的假設(shè),而且證實(shí)了外商直接投資對(duì)一國(guó)的產(chǎn)品出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也是具有帶動(dòng)作用的。還有學(xué)者在2003年找到了在開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中外商直接投資與國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值之間的雙向因果關(guān)系,同時(shí),對(duì)于封閉的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,雖然外商直接投資與國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的因果關(guān)系也是雙向的,但是,在短時(shí)期內(nèi),它們的關(guān)系卻是定向的。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看,主要是經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)了外商直接投資的大量涌入。有學(xué)者在2004年以墨西哥、阿根廷和巴西的數(shù)據(jù)研究了

31、出口導(dǎo)向型增長(zhǎng)假說與外商直接投資增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。他們的研究結(jié)論是建立在Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上的,他們認(rèn)為同時(shí)考慮出口與外商直接投資,能對(duì)外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來一定的好處。協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)表明,外商直接投資的增長(zhǎng)與一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)不存在任何長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系。我采用了格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)的模型,得出一國(guó)的實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率與外商直接投資的流入是有一定的關(guān)系的。這意味著,自1979年改革開放以來,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)與中國(guó)政府陸續(xù)出臺(tái)優(yōu)

32、惠的面向外商的</p><p>　　總之,外商直接投資已經(jīng)并將繼續(xù)發(fā)揮其集聚經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),在對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度、方式、質(zhì)量和效率產(chǎn)生帶來越來越重大的影響的同時(shí),也會(huì)對(duì)地區(qū)差距產(chǎn)生一些負(fù)面的影響。從某種程度上來講,這與中國(guó)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展歷程和對(duì)外開放的步伐是一致的。要改變這種區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)的非收斂態(tài)勢(shì),中國(guó)面臨著很強(qiáng)的路徑依賴,這是絕對(duì)不可能一蹴而就的。 </p><p><b>

33、　　結(jié)論 </b></p><p>　　在過去的經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)的歷程中,中國(guó)已經(jīng)吸引了大量的外商直接投資。雖然外商直接投資的流入量與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)的因果關(guān)系還包含了一定的政策因素的影響,但是中國(guó)學(xué)者仍然很少對(duì)其進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的理論分析。本文用一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)考察了外商直接投資的流入和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的因果關(guān)系,小樣本協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,自從改革開放以來,外商直接投資的流入沒有引起經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),但是經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)

34、導(dǎo)致外商直接投資的大量流入。這意味著中國(guó)政府沒有必要提高太多的稅收和財(cái)政鼓勵(lì)政策來吸引不同類型的外國(guó)商人的涌入。即使沒有這些鼓勵(lì)外商直接投資的優(yōu)惠政策和措施,外商直接投資涌入中國(guó)的數(shù)量預(yù)計(jì)將隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)而不斷增加。截至目前,因?yàn)槠渌驅(qū)е碌耐馍讨苯油顿Y的流入,例如,促進(jìn)產(chǎn)品出口的政策和保證個(gè)人擁有私有財(cái)產(chǎn)的平等權(quán)利,更可能是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)的重要原因。中國(guó)有必要建立一個(gè)高效運(yùn)作的機(jī)構(gòu)來正確引導(dǎo)外商直接投資的流入方向,以期