外文翻譯--中國(guó)低碳發(fā)展的途徑

1、<p><b>　　中文4396字</b></p><p><b>　　本科畢業(yè)論文</b></p><p><b>　　外文文獻(xiàn)及譯文</b></p><p>　　文獻(xiàn)、資料題目 China’s Pathway to Low-carbon Development</p>&l

2、t;p>　　文獻(xiàn)、資料來(lái)源： Journal of Knowledge-based</p><p>　　Innovation in China</p><p>　　文獻(xiàn)、資料發(fā)表（出版）日期：Vol.2 No.3, 2010</p><p>　　院 （部）： 管理工程學(xué)院</p><p>　　專(zhuān) 業(yè)： 工程造價(jià)</p>

3、<p><b>　　外文文獻(xiàn)</b></p><p>　　China’s Pathway to Low-carbon Development</p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explo

4、re China’s current policy and policy options regarding the shift to a low-carbon (LC) development.</p><p>　　Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses both a literature review and empirical systems analysi

5、s of the trends of socio-economic conditions, carbon emissions and development of innovation capacities in China.</p><p>　　Findings – The analysis shows that a holistic solution and co-bene?t approach are ne

6、eded for China’s transition to a green and LC economy, and that, especially for developing countries, it is not enough to have only goals regarding mitigation and adaptation. Instead, a concrete roadmap towards a LC futu

7、re is needed that addresses key issues of technology transfer, institutional arrangements and sharing the costs in the context of a global climate regime. In this light, it is argued that China sh</p><p>　　O

8、riginality/value – The paper thus provides a unique summary, in English, of the arguments supporting China’s current low-carbon innovation policies from one of the authors of this policy. Keywords：Carbon, Sustainable dev

9、elopment, Environmental management, Government policy, China</p><p>　　Paper type – Research paper</p><p>　　Climate change has become the most signi?cant environment and development challenge to

10、human society in the twenty-?rst century. Responding to climate change is the core task to achieving global sustainable development, both for today and for a rather long period of time from today. International negotiati

11、ons on prevention of global warming and related actions not only concern the human living environment, but also directly impact the modernization process of developing countries. Although the p</p><p>　　The

12、science basis of climate change and its extended political and economic implications</p><p>　　Global warming of the climate system has become an unequivocal fact. According to a large amount of monitoring da

13、ta, global average land surface temperature has risen 0.748C over the last century (IPCC, 2007a, b, c, d). And the rate of rising has been sped up. In the meantime, global average sea level has been constantly rising too

14、. Global warming has posed a serious challenge to China’s climate, environment and development. In the global context of climate change, China’s climate and environmen</p><p>　　The IPCC (2007a, b, c, d) inte

15、grated assessment shows that since 1750, human activities have been a major cause of global warming, while in the last 50 years, most of the global warming is the consequence of human activities, with a probability of mo

16、re than 90 per cent, in particular from the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions due to the human use of fossil fuels. It is forecast that before the end of the twenty-?rst century, global warming will continue, and how muc

17、h the temperature will rise de</p><p>　　With China becoming the world’s largest CO2emitter, China faces increasing pressure to reduce its emissions. Being a responsible country, China will take actions to ta

18、ckle climate change. When developing its mitigation target, China will consider such factors as level of development, technology know-how, social impact, international image and a new international climate regime underpi

19、nned by fairness and effectiveness. China will move into a win-win development path to achieve climate protection</p><p>　　To develop LC economy – background, opportunities and challenges</p><p>

20、;　　As illustrated above, systematic solutions are required to tackle climate change, due to the complexity of the global climate system as well as its coverage of broad social and economic issues. After nearly two decade

21、s’ exploration, human society has realized that in order to effectively mitigate and adapt to climate change, we have to fundamentally reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, which means that we have to achieve the shift to

22、 a LC future from the way we produce and consume to how global </p><p>　　As a fundamental venue to coordinate social and economic development, guarantee energy security and respond to climate change, develop

23、ment of LC economy is gradually gaining the needed consensus from more and more countries. Though without a ?xed academic de?nition, the core of developing a LC economy is to establish a development pathway that has high

24、-energy ef?ciency, low-energy consumption and low emissions. Under a fair and effective international climate regime, the ef?ciency of energy expl</p><p>　　What needs to be clari?ed is that, due to the diffe

25、rences of various countries’ social and economic contexts, the starting points towards a LC future might vary, as might the pursued goals. For developed countries that are taking the lead to commit to reduction targets,

26、their ?rst objective to develop a LC economy is to reduce emissions. For developing countries whose economies are still at a fast growing stage, their ?rst priority is development and their per capita energy consumption

27、is expect</p><p>　　Costs and markets – at this moment we could hardly be able to estimate the whole costs that are required to develop a LC economy. It is far from being as simple as calculating the direct c

28、osts of adopting LC technologies. It also takes time to establish LC technology and product markets, especially now, when the global ?nancial crisis has hit everyone hard and when no one can give a good estimate about wh

29、en the world economy could turn around and recover; though many experts and scholars hold th</p><p>　　Establishment of a fair international climate regime and mid- to long-term targets to tackle climate chan

30、ge – the development of a LC economy also depends on the international climate negotiation process and its result, of which the most critical element is whether it will result in legally binding global emissions reductio

31、n targets and the corresponding mechanisms of technology transfer and ?nancial support, even if this was not established at Copenhagen.</p><p>　　To date, even though some EU countries have achieved the decou

32、pling of economic growth and carbon emissions, LC economy has not generated universally applicable, successful experiences; and what those experiences mean to developing countries still needs to be ?gured out and tested

33、overtime. </p><p>　　For developing countries, the dif?culties and barriers to developing a LC economy are obvious, including current stage of development, international trade structure, economic costs, inade

34、quate market, technology diffusion system, institutional arrangement, incentive policy and management system. From the historic evolution of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in industrialized

35、 countries, most countries experienced successively the inverted U-shape curves of carbon int</p><p>　　Strategic measures</p><p>　　On the basis of the above-mentioned analysis, the LC path with

36、Chinese characteristics shall also focus on gradually setting up “resource-ef?cient, environment-friendly and LC-oriented” society. Guided by LC development strategy and its targets, efforts shall be made to develop rele

37、vant institutional arrangements, improve management systems, stipulate development plans, accumulate experience from demonstrations and pilots, and push forward LC economic development in an orderly manner, so that a <

38、;/p><p>　　Four major aspects are the key starting points to structure a LC social and economy system:</p><p>　　(1)Establish a legal and regulatory framework addressing climate change and improving

39、 the macro-management system. The legislative feasibility and legal model of “Law to Address Climate Change” shall be debated and articulated. Also, in the legislation process of other laws and regulations, articles rela

40、ted to response to climate change shall be included. For instance, a technical guideline of strategic environmental assessment shall include articles related to climate change impact assessment.</p><p>　　(2)

41、Establish long-acting mechanism framework of LC development and stipulate related LC development policies in an orderly manner. Institutional innovation is the key to embarking on a LC development path. China shall beco

42、me more pragmatic in developing a long-term incentive mechanism and policy measures that are in favour of energy saving, environmental protection and climate protection, guided by the balanced development framework and a

43、chieve the LC transition at government and business level</p><p>　　(3)Strengthen collaboration and establish a healthy LC technology system. Technological innovation is the core element in LC development. G

44、overnment shall adopt integrated measures to offer a relaxed and favourable policy environment for business development and create and provide better institutional guarantees for technological innovation. As a result, th

45、e R&D and diffusion of high-energy ef?ciency and LC emissions technologies can be strengthened in both production and consumption. A diverse</p><p>　　(4)Establish collaboration mechanism with all stakeh

46、olders’ participation. Low-carbon development is not just for government or business; instead, it requires all related stakeholders’ as well as the whole society’s participation. Owing to the fact that there exist some

47、inadequacies in the general public’s awareness of climate change, publicity, education and training are required in combination with policy incentives to transform the public’s perception and thinking, increase the publi

48、c’s awa</p><p>　　References：</p><p>　　EIA (2008), International Energy Outlook, EIA, USDOE, Washington, DC. </p><p>　　He, J. (2008), “Addressing climate change through developing lo

49、w carbon economy”, Keynote Speech in Sino-Danish Forum on Climate Change, Beijing October 23. IEA (2008), World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA, Paris.</p><p>　　IPCC (2007a), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptati

50、on and Vulnerability, available at: www.ipcc.ch</p><p>　　IPCC (2007b), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, available at: www.ipcc.ch</p><p>　　IPCC (2007c), Climate Change 2007: Sy

51、nthesis Report, available at: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf</p><p>　　IPCC (2007d), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basic, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.</p>&

52、lt;p>　　Jiang, K. (2007), “A scenario research on China’s greenhouse gas emissions”,International Climate Change Regime: A Study on Key Issues in China, China Environmental Sciences Press, Beijing, pp. 8-24.</p>

53、<p>　　Stiglitz, J.E. (2009), “Three ways to global economic recovery”, available at: http://news.sina.com.cn/pl/2009-01-13/082317033320.shtml</p><p>　　Wang, Y. (2008a), “A low carbon path with Chinese

54、characteristics”,Greenleaf, No. 8, pp. 46-52.</p><p>　　Wang, Y. (2008b), Summary of Sino-Danish Forum on Climate Change: Not to Delay Climate Change Progress by Financial Crisis, available at: www.p5w.net/n

55、ews/gjcj/200810/</p><p>　　t1981142.htm</p><p><b>　　中文翻譯：</b></p><p><b>　　中國(guó)低碳發(fā)展的途徑</b></p><p><b>　　摘要：</b></p><p>　　目的：

56、這篇論文的是探索中國(guó)現(xiàn)存的政策和針對(duì)低碳發(fā)展政策的其他可選方向。</p><p>　　計(jì)劃、方法論、方式：本論文用到了文獻(xiàn)綜述和實(shí)驗(yàn)系統(tǒng)分析了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件趨勢(shì)的，碳的釋放和中國(guó)創(chuàng)新能力發(fā)展。</p><p>　　調(diào)查結(jié)果：分析結(jié)果顯示，中國(guó)綠色和低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的過(guò)渡需要一個(gè)全面的解決方案和共同利益的方式，特別是對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家，僅僅以緩解和適應(yīng)去對(duì)待作為唯一目標(biāo)是不足的，相反，技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)變的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題是需

57、要一個(gè)對(duì)低碳未來(lái)具體的規(guī)劃圖，，體制安排和分擔(dān)在全球氣候制度方面的費(fèi)用。有鑒于此，有人認(rèn)為中國(guó)應(yīng)采取低碳發(fā)展的方針，未來(lái)十年圍繞在降低碳強(qiáng)度上。</p><p>　　創(chuàng)意、價(jià)值：因此，本文作者之一用英文提供了論據(jù)支持中國(guó)目前的低碳技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的政策獨(dú)特論點(diǎn)。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：碳、可持續(xù)發(fā)展、環(huán)境管理、政府政策、中國(guó)</p><p>　　論文類(lèi)型：研究型論文&

58、lt;/p><p>　　氣候變化已成為二十一世紀(jì)的人類(lèi)社會(huì)最重要的環(huán)境和發(fā)展的挑戰(zhàn)。應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化是實(shí)現(xiàn)全球可持續(xù)發(fā)展的核心任務(wù)，既是為了當(dāng)下也要考慮未來(lái)。防止全球變暖和相關(guān)的行動(dòng)的談判，不只是關(guān)注人類(lèi)的生存環(huán)境，而且還直接影響到發(fā)展中國(guó)家的現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程。盡管全球氣候保護(hù)的進(jìn)程取決于我們的科學(xué)意識(shí)的共識(shí)，政治意愿，經(jīng)濟(jì)利益，社會(huì)的接受程度，以及采取的措施，低碳（LC）的發(fā)展道路，無(wú)疑是人類(lèi)未來(lái)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵選擇。</p

59、><p>　　氣候變化及其延伸的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的科學(xué)依據(jù)</p><p>　　全球氣候系統(tǒng)的變暖已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)明確的事實(shí)。根據(jù)大量的監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)，在過(guò)去一個(gè)世紀(jì)全球平均地表溫度上升0.740C（IPCC，2007年A，B，C，D）。上升的速度已經(jīng)加快。在此期間，全球平均海平面不斷上升。全球變暖已經(jīng)構(gòu)成了對(duì)中國(guó)的氣候，環(huán)境和發(fā)展的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。在全球氣候變化的背景下，中國(guó)的氣候和環(huán)境正在發(fā)展變化。例如，在

60、上個(gè)世紀(jì)，已經(jīng)目睹了地表平均溫度明顯的增加，但降水并未改變太多，其年代變化和區(qū)域差距已經(jīng)很大。在過(guò)去50年中，在極端天氣和氣候事件的頻率和強(qiáng)度上也出現(xiàn)了重大變化（中國(guó)國(guó)家評(píng)估報(bào)告氣候變化的編輯委員會(huì)，2007）。</p><p>　　政府間氣候變化專(zhuān)門(mén)委員會(huì)（2007年A，B，C，D）的綜合評(píng)估顯示，自1750年以來(lái)，人類(lèi)活動(dòng)是全球變暖的主要原因，而在過(guò)去50年中，全球氣候變暖的大部分是與人類(lèi)活動(dòng)的后果，超過(guò)90

61、％，在特定的溫室氣體（GHG）因·人類(lèi)使用化石燃料排放的概率。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，二十一世紀(jì)結(jié)束之前，全球變暖將繼續(xù)，氣溫將上升多少取決于什么將采取行動(dòng)的人。根據(jù)IPCC第四次評(píng)估（“監(jiān)理會(huì)”，2007年A，B，C，D），人類(lèi)的行動(dòng)，以減輕氣候變化是可行的，既有經(jīng)濟(jì)上和技術(shù)上的第三個(gè)工作組的報(bào)告。行動(dòng)部署在各個(gè)領(lǐng)域的關(guān)鍵減緩技術(shù)，采取的政策和行政干預(yù)，轉(zhuǎn)移的發(fā)展途徑，都可以大大有助于減緩氣候變化。</p><p>

62、　　隨著中國(guó)成為世界上最大的二氧化碳排放國(guó)，中國(guó)正面臨著越來(lái)越大的壓力，以減少其排放量。作為一個(gè)負(fù)責(zé)任的大國(guó)，中國(guó)將采取行動(dòng)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化。當(dāng)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的減排目標(biāo)，中國(guó)將考慮這樣的發(fā)展水平，技術(shù)訣竅，社會(huì)影響力，國(guó)際形象和新的國(guó)際氣候制度的公平性和有效性的基礎(chǔ)因素。中國(guó)將成為一個(gè)雙贏的發(fā)展道路，實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候保護(hù)，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展質(zhì)量和其他相關(guān)政策目標(biāo)。</p><p>　　要制低碳會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)--背景、機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn)</p>

63、<p>　　如上所述，系統(tǒng)化的解決方案都需要應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化，因全球氣候系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性，以及其廣泛的社會(huì)覆蓋面和經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題。經(jīng)過(guò)近二十年的探索，人類(lèi)社會(huì)已經(jīng)意識(shí)到，為了有效地減輕和適應(yīng)氣候變化，我們必須從根本上減少我們對(duì)化石燃料的依賴(lài)，這意味著我們必須要通過(guò)轉(zhuǎn)變?nèi)蛸Y產(chǎn)的分配（包括行業(yè)，技術(shù)，資金和資源）以及它們的轉(zhuǎn)移的生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的方式實(shí)現(xiàn)低碳的未來(lái)。GHGs作為一項(xiàng)全球公益事業(yè)，既是高層次人類(lèi)智慧和一個(gè)新的國(guó)際氣候制度，以應(yīng)對(duì)市

64、場(chǎng)失靈的需要，這也要求所有利益相關(guān)者的參與他們將被授予新的低碳發(fā)展途徑。人類(lèi)社會(huì)已經(jīng)付出經(jīng)濟(jì)的代價(jià)，以解決氣候變暖。因此，三個(gè)靈活的“機(jī)制”，在“京都議定書(shū)”（聯(lián)合履行，排放貿(mào)易和清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制）示范為附件一國(guó)家的有意義的實(shí)驗(yàn)，以降低其減排成本。我們需要的是更加深入的探索，比我們現(xiàn)在的探索更為普遍適用的機(jī)制，主要負(fù)責(zé)利益相關(guān)者之間的資源有效地分配。立法的發(fā)展道路，體現(xiàn)了一個(gè)綜合的解決方案戰(zhàn)略。它旨在通過(guò)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展建立一個(gè)低碳社會(huì)，試圖實(shí)

65、現(xiàn)上面討論的所有關(guān)鍵要素的重組，并為人類(lèi)社會(huì)通過(guò)合作應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化提供了新的機(jī)遇。 </p><p>　　作為協(xié)調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展的一個(gè)基本的領(lǐng)域，保證低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的能源安全和應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化，逐漸成為越來(lái)越多的國(guó)家所需要的共識(shí)。雖然沒(méi)有一個(gè)固定的學(xué)術(shù)定義，一個(gè)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的核心是建立具有高能源效率，低能耗，低排放的發(fā)展途徑。一個(gè)公平和有效的國(guó)際氣候制度下，能源勘探，發(fā)電，輸電，改造和使用效率將會(huì)大大提高，能耗大大降低，

66、因此，在為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而使用的碳能源供應(yīng)強(qiáng)度大大降低，從而能碳排放量也大大降低。通過(guò)增加碳匯和使用碳捕獲和儲(chǔ)存（CCS）技術(shù)，努力減少化石燃料的溫室氣體排放量。在此同時(shí)，通過(guò)建立合理和公平的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)變和資金支持機(jī)制，發(fā)展中國(guó)家可以以國(guó)際貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)中的價(jià)值鏈的最低端的成本采取向低碳模式轉(zhuǎn)變。需要改變以促進(jìn)消費(fèi)的過(guò)渡，實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展和低碳未來(lái)的發(fā)展價(jià)值的角度。</p><p>　　需要澄清的是，由于各國(guó)社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)背景的差異，

67、對(duì)一個(gè)低碳未來(lái)的出發(fā)點(diǎn)或者追求的目標(biāo)可能有所不同。對(duì)于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，帶頭承諾減排目標(biāo)，他們低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的首要目標(biāo)是減少溫室氣體排放。對(duì)于發(fā)展中國(guó)家，其經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然在快速增長(zhǎng)的階段，他們的首要任務(wù)是發(fā)展，所以他們的人均能源消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。目標(biāo)應(yīng)是??多方面的。在目前階段，對(duì)于主流氣候變化的國(guó)內(nèi)政策它是很難的。怎樣才能減少能源強(qiáng)度和提高碳生產(chǎn)率，從而逐步脫鉤的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和碳排放量。同樣重要的是，低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中存在許多不確定因素，特別是對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)

68、家。在此過(guò)程中需要克服巨大的困難和障礙。</p><p>　　在國(guó)際層面上，低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不確定因素包括：</p><p>　　成本和市場(chǎng)——在這一刻，我們也難以真正能夠估計(jì)一個(gè)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所必需的全部費(fèi)用。只計(jì)算低碳技術(shù)的直接成本太過(guò)于簡(jiǎn)單了。它也需要時(shí)間來(lái)建立低碳技術(shù)和產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)，尤其是現(xiàn)在，當(dāng)全球金融危機(jī)已經(jīng)觸及每個(gè)人努力時(shí)，沒(méi)有人能預(yù)計(jì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)能否扭轉(zhuǎn)和恢復(fù)良好，雖然許多專(zhuān)家和學(xué)者舉

69、行長(zhǎng)期氣候變化的響應(yīng)，可以帶來(lái)新的機(jī)遇，以經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇（stiglitz，2009;wang，2008b）。是什么使局勢(shì)更加復(fù)雜，現(xiàn)在是美國(guó)，中國(guó)，印度和其他主要國(guó)家將如何參與建立一個(gè)低碳市場(chǎng)。</p><p>　　建立一個(gè)公平的國(guó)際氣候制度和中期長(zhǎng)期的目標(biāo)，以應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化——低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，也取決于在國(guó)際氣候談判進(jìn)程及其結(jié)果，其中最關(guān)鍵的因素是，它是否會(huì)產(chǎn)生具有法律約束力的全球減排目標(biāo)和相應(yīng)的機(jī)制，技術(shù)和資金支持，

70、即使沒(méi)有在哥本哈根上建立。</p><p>　　迄今為止，盡管一些歐盟國(guó)家已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和碳排放的脫鉤，低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)也不會(huì)產(chǎn)生普遍適用的，成功的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，這些經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家而言意味著什么仍需要揣摩和測(cè)試。</p><p>　　對(duì)于發(fā)展中國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，開(kāi)發(fā)一個(gè)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的困難和障礙是顯而易見(jiàn)的，包括目前的發(fā)展階段，國(guó)際貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)，經(jīng)濟(jì)成本，市場(chǎng)不足，技術(shù)擴(kuò)散體系，制度安排，激勵(lì)政策和管理制度。從工業(yè)化

71、國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和碳排放之間的關(guān)系的歷史演變中，大多數(shù)國(guó)家先后經(jīng)歷碳排放強(qiáng)度，人均碳排放量，碳排放總量倒U形曲線(xiàn)。但不同國(guó)家或地區(qū)在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平或人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的相對(duì)碳排放峰值相差很大。這表明，不存在一個(gè)單一的，確切的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和碳排放。如果檢查已經(jīng)通過(guò)這些國(guó)家或地區(qū)的碳排放量的高峰期，需要大約24-91年，平均55年之間的碳排放強(qiáng)度高峰和人均碳排放量。，達(dá)到不同的峰值的一些驅(qū)動(dòng)力已在顯示過(guò)去經(jīng)歷和未來(lái)情景的分析圖1中

72、表示出來(lái)了。重點(diǎn)是，沒(méi)有強(qiáng)大的強(qiáng)制性減排措施和外部支持，發(fā)展中國(guó)家將需要相對(duì)較長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，以達(dá)到碳排放量的增長(zhǎng)高峰，然后穩(wěn)定和減少。</p><p><b>　　戰(zhàn)略措施</b></p><p>　　上述分析的基礎(chǔ)上，具有中國(guó)特色的低碳路徑也應(yīng)逐步建立“資源節(jié)約型，環(huán)境友好型和低碳為本的社會(huì)”的重點(diǎn)。在低碳發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和目標(biāo)的指導(dǎo)下，應(yīng)努力制定相關(guān)的制度安排，完善管理制度，

73、規(guī)定發(fā)展計(jì)劃，從示范和試點(diǎn)積累經(jīng)驗(yàn)，并有條不紊地推進(jìn)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，塑造一個(gè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展和低碳的中國(guó)的未來(lái)。</p><p>　　構(gòu)建一個(gè)低碳社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的主要出發(fā)點(diǎn)有四個(gè)方面：</p><p>　　（1）建立一個(gè)法律和監(jiān)管框架以應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化和改善宏觀(guān)管理體制。“用法律解決氣候變化”的立法的可行性和法律模式應(yīng)進(jìn)行辯論和闡述。此外，在其他法律法規(guī)的立法進(jìn)程里，應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化相關(guān)的條款應(yīng)被列入。例

74、如，戰(zhàn)略環(huán)境評(píng)價(jià)的技術(shù)指標(biāo)應(yīng)包括有關(guān)氣候變化影響評(píng)估的文章。一個(gè)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的法律和監(jiān)管框架將逐漸浮出水面。中國(guó)的氣候變化主管行政機(jī)關(guān)仍然薄弱，缺乏能力，首先，國(guó)家的氣候變化和節(jié)能減污減排工作的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子應(yīng)發(fā)揮其充分的作用時(shí)，更加靈活和多樣化的部門(mén)建立協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制;小組應(yīng)當(dāng)在應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的遠(yuǎn)期戰(zhàn)略措施上提出建議。其次，能力建設(shè)應(yīng)加強(qiáng)，應(yīng)分配更多的行政資源，以便為下一輪政府機(jī)構(gòu)改革更好的準(zhǔn)備，，以進(jìn)一步提高負(fù)責(zé)氣候變化的政府部門(mén)的行政級(jí)別。&l

75、t;/p><p>　?。?）低碳發(fā)展建立長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制的框架，并規(guī)定有序低碳發(fā)展的相關(guān)政策。制度創(chuàng)新是著手低碳發(fā)展道路上的關(guān)鍵。中國(guó)應(yīng)制定一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期的激勵(lì)機(jī)制和政策措施，有利于更加務(wù)實(shí)的節(jié)能，環(huán)保和氣候保護(hù)，均衡發(fā)展框架的指導(dǎo)，實(shí)現(xiàn)在低碳過(guò)渡政府和業(yè)務(wù)水平。此時(shí)，許多地區(qū)和城市已表示他們對(duì)低碳發(fā)展的興趣和熱情。有關(guān)準(zhǔn)則，以及低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)雜性和多樣性模型，均表示應(yīng)推出的宏觀(guān)政策指導(dǎo)和規(guī)范的內(nèi)容，模式，發(fā)展方向和評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系的低

76、碳經(jīng)濟(jì)。來(lái)自其他國(guó)家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn)，可以自檢和學(xué)習(xí)，以便低碳發(fā)展有序，健康地向前發(fā)展。專(zhuān)項(xiàng)規(guī)劃和方案，應(yīng)以國(guó)家級(jí)項(xiàng)目發(fā)展，然后一些有代表性的地區(qū)和城市，以及一些關(guān)鍵部門(mén)，可以被選為低碳試點(diǎn)。當(dāng)市場(chǎng)成熟，低碳市場(chǎng)應(yīng)當(dāng)設(shè)立調(diào)節(jié)定價(jià)機(jī)制，并設(shè)定財(cái)政政策和激勵(lì)政策。</p><p>　　（3）加強(qiáng)合作，建立一個(gè)健康的低碳技術(shù)體系。技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是低碳發(fā)展的核心要素。政府應(yīng)采取綜合措施，為業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展提供一個(gè)寬松和有利的政策環(huán)境，為技

77、術(shù)創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)造和提供更好的體制保障。因此，高能源效率和低碳排放技術(shù)的研發(fā)和擴(kuò)散可以加強(qiáng)生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)。多樣化的低碳技術(shù)體系將為節(jié)能和能源利用率逐步建立，比如清潔煤和清潔能源，可再生能源和新能源，以及碳沉降。商業(yè)化水平將得到改善。因此，低碳過(guò)渡和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式的轉(zhuǎn)變將提供強(qiáng)有力的技術(shù)基礎(chǔ)。中國(guó)也應(yīng)進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)國(guó)際合作，不僅通過(guò)氣候相關(guān)的國(guó)際合作機(jī)制從其他國(guó)家進(jìn)口、吸收和采用先進(jìn)技術(shù)，更重要的是，通過(guò)參與國(guó)際相關(guān)部門(mén)的能源效率標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的規(guī)定和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的碳強(qiáng)度，

78、以及準(zhǔn)則。中國(guó)可以考慮自愿或強(qiáng)制性標(biāo)桿管理用以提升低碳發(fā)展的一些關(guān)鍵技術(shù)，已達(dá)到設(shè)備和產(chǎn)品的國(guó)際領(lǐng)先水平。</p><p>　　（4）與所有參與的利益相關(guān)者建立協(xié)作機(jī)制。低碳發(fā)展不僅是政府或企業(yè)，相反，它需要所有利益相關(guān)者以及全社會(huì)的參與。由于存在廣大市民對(duì)氣候變化意識(shí)的一些不足之處，改造公眾的認(rèn)知和思維的激勵(lì)政策需要宣傳，教育和培訓(xùn)，用以提高應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的意識(shí)，逐步達(dá)到結(jié)合注重低碳的消費(fèi)行為和模式的共識(shí)。需要與

79、所有公民采取聯(lián)合行動(dòng)，以抵御氣候變化的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p><b>　　參考文獻(xiàn)：</b></p><p>　　EIA (2008),國(guó)際能源展望, EIA, USDOE, Washington, DC. </p><p>　　He, J. (2008), “通過(guò)發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化”, 在中丹氣候變化論壇的主旨演講, 北京. IE

80、A (2008), 國(guó)際能源展望2008, IEA, 巴黎</p><p>　　IPCC (2007a), 氣候變化 2007: 影響, 適應(yīng)與脆弱,源于: www.ipcc.ch</p><p>　　IPCC (2007b), 氣候變化 2007: 減緩氣候變化, 源于: www.ipcc.ch</p><p>　　IPCC (2007c), 氣候變化 2007:

81、 綜合報(bào)道,源于: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf</p><p>　　IPCC (2007d), 氣候變化 2007: 物理科學(xué)基礎(chǔ)，劍橋大學(xué)出版社，劍橋</p><p>　　Jiang, K. (2007), “對(duì)中國(guó)溫室氣體排放的研究方案”, 國(guó)際氣候變化制度: 中國(guó)的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題研究，中國(guó)環(huán)境科學(xué)出版社，北京,

82、 pp. 8-24.</p><p>　　Stiglitz, J.E. (2009), “全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的三種方式”, 源于: http://news.sina.com.cn/pl/2009-01-13/082317033320.shtml</p><p>　　Wang, Y. (2008a), “具有中國(guó)特色的低碳路徑”, 綠葉, No. 8, pp. 46-52.</p>