外文翻譯---對企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險的預(yù)警和控制

1、<p>　　湖北汽車工業(yè)學(xué)院科技學(xué)院</p><p>　　畢 業(yè) 設(shè) 計（英文翻譯）</p><p>　　On the corporate financial risk early warning and control</p><p>　　Liu Jingzhong </p><p>　　Economic and trade de

2、partment</p><p>　　Shang Qiu Polyltechnic </p><p>　　Shangqiu, Henan Province, China </p><p>　　sqzyljz@sina.com;</p><p><b>　　窗體底端</b></p><p>　　Ab

3、stract - Financial risk that a firm will be unable to meet its financial obligations. This risk is primarily a function of the relative amount of debt that the firm uses to finance its assets. A higher proportion of debt

4、 increases the likelihood that at some point the firm will be unable to make the required interest and principal payments. Early warning and controlling financial risks effectively can provide a safe and steady operating

5、 environment. This paper believe that through analyzing th</p><p>　　Key words: Index Terms -financial risk; early warning index; control effectively </p><p>　　1.INTRODUCTION</p><p>

6、;　　What is financial risk? </p><p>　　The financial risk is finance achievement and the risk of financial standing.The financial risk separates the narrow sense and the broad sense.The narrow sense financial

7、risk is fallen into debt the causable by the business enterprise, concretely say to mean business enterprise because of lend funds but increment of lose the possibility of the ability of repaying debt and the variability

8、 of the business enterprise profits (shareholder income);The broad sense financial risk means the finance syst</p><p>　　In this paper,financial risk refers to that because of the unreasonable structure and i

9、nappropriate financing, companies may lose solvency, which will lead to the declining in expected return and even bankruptcy of investors. </p><p>　　How does financial risk?Financial risk arises through coun

10、tless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities.It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions

11、, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. In today's society, debt management is a necessary business strate

12、gy for</p><p>　　Corporate usually encounter a wide variety of financial risks in production and management process. Because of the existence of financial risks, corporate are very difficult to achieve the in

13、itial financial benefits, and some of financial risks may even threaten the normal operation and production of corporate. At present, in some corporate, financial risks are not received the attention from the management,

14、 then how could corporate predict potential finance risks and have an effective control o</p><p>　　2. EARL Y WARNING INDICATOR SYSTEM OF FINANCIAL RISK </p><p>　　The financial risk identifies is

15、 manage to the financial risk contents before the disadvantageous risk just appeared or appeared, identify, with accurate held various financial risk of signal and it creation reason. The financial risk early warning wan

16、ts before the financial risk physically takes place and catches and keeps watch on various small evidence to change, with benefit prevention and for adopt an appropriate counterplan to fight for time.The group wants to b

17、uild up a perfect informatio</p><p>　　To effectively prevent financial risks, corporate should take some measures and establish early warning indicator system for financial risk analysis. </p><p&g

18、t;　　2.1 Analyze the change income levels to timely detect risk signals</p><p>　　Corporate earnings include 3 levels: operating income, regular income and periodic income. Operating income means the remaining

19、 net income deducting operating costs, management cost, sale cost, tax and other additional cost from the total income. Regular income is the income based on the income deducting finance charges. While periodic income

20、 is the total of regular income and net non-operating income and expenditure. If a corporate has started to take a loss since the period of operating inc</p><p>　　2.2 Develop the cash flow budget and analyze

21、 financial conditions</p><p>　　The development of corporate cash flow budget is one of the most important parts in financial management. Accurate cash flow budget can help financial managers analyze financia

22、l conditions and provide risk early warning signal. As the object of corporate finance is cash or cash flow, so in the short term, whether the corporate can survive is not entirely dependent on whether it is in the blac

23、k, but on whether there is sufficient cash for various expenses. The premise of the precaution is that </p><p>　　2.3 Establish risk analysis indicator system and timely monitor financial risk </p>&l

24、t;p>　　The following indicators are those financial indictors commonly used in the analysis of financial risk by financial managers</p><p>　　1, profitability </p><p>　　In the long run, if a c

25、orporate wants to stay away from the financial crisis, good profitability is a must, then its external financing capacity and liquidation of debts capacity will be stronger. Indicators include:</p><p>　　Net

26、present value rate of total assets = (cash flow generated in operating activities+ dividends or cash obtained from interest payments+ cash interest payments+ cash to pay income tax) / average total assets</p><

27、p>　　Net present value rate of sale = cash flow generated by operating activities / net amount of sale income</p><p>　　Profitability of stockholder interest = net profit/ average stockholder interest <

28、/p><p>　　2, Solvency</p><p>　　Basically, the risk of corporate is caused by debts and a corporate operated by its own capital will have only operating risk not financial risk. Therefore, weighing t

29、he financial risk of trading on the equity to determine the debt ratio should compare the profitability of trading on the equity and the cost rate of debt capital, only if the former is greater than the latter, the princ

30、ipal and interest can be paid back in time to achieve the financial leverage profit; At the same time, debt-payin</p><p>　　3. Economic efficiency</p><p>　　Economic efficiency will directly embod

31、y the degree of corporate management. Indicators reflecting the asset management include turnover rate of accounting receivable and balance rate between production and demand, among which: balance rate between production

32、 and demand=products sales/industrial output value.</p><p>　　4.Corporate developmental potential</p><p>　　Indicators measuring corporate developmental potential include sales growth and capital

33、maintenance and increment ratio. This paper applies improved efficiency coefficient method to conduct comprehensive evaluation and standardizes several values for each evaluation indicator---one is satisfied value, while

34、 the other is non-allowed value. Then design and calculate individual efficiency coefficient of each indicators, utilize Delphi method to determine each indicator weight, and use weighted arit</p><p>　　5. Fi

35、nancial flexibility </p><p>　　Financial flexibility means the capacity that corporate has to take effective measures to change the flow and time of cash flow for the purpose of adapting to unanticipated nee

36、ds and opportunities, which is mainly related to the net cash flow generated by companies operating activities. Indicators reflecting financial flexibility include: working capital used to test the liquidity level of cor

37、porate total assets, ratio of total assets, redemption rate for due debt capital, ratio of actual net as</p><p>　　3. THE CONSTRUCTION OF EARLY WARNING MODEL IN FINANCIAL RISK </p><p>　　Financial

38、 managers can use computer technology (such as Excel financial analysis software) to integrate the financial risk indicators which need to be analyzed to design a "financial risk analysis model." Establish fund

39、amental region of data (or establish a data table connection) and calculation analysis region, then create formulas and data connectivity relations for each analytical indicators in the cell of calculation analysis area

40、in order to automatically figure out the value of each indica</p><p>　　4.STRENGTHEN THE FINANCIAL BUDGET MANAGEMENT OF ENTERPRISES (TO GROUP COMPANY AS THE EXAMPLE)</p><p>　　1.Build up the organ

41、ization organization of finance budget management</p><p>　　Then the Legal Representative's management to the group finance budget work of group company is negative total responsibility, establish from re

42、levant the working talent section constitute of finance budget management committee, mainly draw up the target, policy of finance budget, draw up the concrete measure and way of finance budget management, review, equilib

43、rium finance budget project, the organization bottom reaches finance budget and moderates to solve finance budget to draw up with the pr</p><p>　　2.The norm finance budget draws up procedure and method</p

44、><p>　　According to the whole development strategy of the group company, according to the procedure of "up and down combine, the ratings draw up, pursue the class gather", at decision of foundation up

45、, put forward the business enterprise group finance budget target.Each budget carries out the finance budget that the section reaches under the budget committee according to the business enterprise finance target and pol

46、icy and combines oneself characteristics and the performance condition of estimate and </p><p>　　3.Work well to control to control with after the event in the budgetary before the event control, matter</p

47、><p>　　Each budget carries out a section to periodically report the performance circumstance of finance budget, to new circumstance, new problem and appear deviation bigger and important item, specially pay att

48、ention to check to seek reason to put forward the measure suggestion of improvement management management.Well make use of solid the information system carry on finance supervision</p><p>　　4.Well make use o

49、f solid the information system carry on finance supervision</p><p>　　The establishment, sound and internal finance supervises and controls a mechanism, is the effective measure that guards against and dissol

50、ves financial risk.Supervision in the inner part includes accountancy's control and management to control 2 types.The group finance supervises and controls a work establishment on the foundation of each finance budge

51、t and promise the capital structure of subsidiary is good, finance operation whole benefits according to business enterprise group, thus and more </p><p>　　Finance information for business enterprise group t

52、o makes the most of solid to follow direct and control funds to flow to take up by getting rid of invalid funds, raise a funds use efficiency, ensure the realization of group finance target.</p><p>　　5. THE

53、CONTROL ON FINANCIAL RISK </p><p>　　It will play a positive role for corporate development, if they have a good control on financial risk. Reducing financial risk will be beneficial for corporate to create a

54、 relatively secure and stable operating environment. After establishing the system of financial risk analysis indicators, corporate should take timely monitoring on the situation of financial risk. Corporate should take

55、measures to control them after finding risk signals. They can control financial risk from the following aspec</p><p>　　1.Strong sense of risk. Corporate cannot constantly pursue high profits without consider

56、ing the aftermath, and wantonly raise money to increase the financial burden. The amount of profit is not the sole criterion for the power of a company. Excessive debt can not only let corporate bear a heavy burden of in

57、terest, and once the process of reproduction is interrupted and obstructed, cash flow problems occur, and corporate cannot pay back debt on time, they will face the risk of loss in reputation,</p><p>　　2. Es

58、tablish the most favorable capital structure. Corporate consider their risk to tolerance acquire to choose the most on advantageous capital structure. Use the lowest capital cost and minimum risk maximum return investmen

59、t, seeking the best match between risk and profit. </p><p>　　3.Choose the right financing way. On the basis of comprehensive consideration on funding cost, financial risk and other various factors, corporate

60、 should pick the following order of financing to control financial risk, which can reduce their financial risk to minimum degree. First, financing should start from internal accumulation. This way has small difficulty an

61、d little risk, which can preserve more loaning capacity for corporate. Second, if corporate raise money from outside, their first choi</p><p>　　4 Take the appropriate borrowing strategies. Although sometimes

62、 borrowing can increase the profit of corporate and improve cash however, however no matter under any circumstances, we should clear the expected return of borrowing in the changing corporate environment. If the expected

63、 return cannot be determined, corporate does not have the sufficient reason to borrow. Therefore, corporate must know when to borrow and when not to borrow. Only in this way, the financial risk can be controlled to pr<

64、;/p><p>　　5, Maintain the high mobility of assets. A high degree of asset liquidity is an important guarantee for corporate to control financial risk and reduce financial burden. The capital is achieved more ea

65、sily, liquidity is stronger, and the ability to withstand the financial risk is also stronger. </p><p>　　6. Maintain profitability. If the profit cannot meet the financial needs, corporate must rely on cash

66、balances, sell short-term financial assets, or borrow more debt to make up funding gaps and increase the corporate financial risk. </p><p>　　Therefore, maintaining profitability, increasing capital, and redu

67、cing debt can effectively control financial risk.</p><p>　　REFERENCES </p><p>　　[1] Leading Group Office of national professional accounting qualification examination. Intermediate Financial Man

68、agement [M]. Beijing: China Financial and Economic Publishing, 2008. </p><p>　　[2] Wei Yaping, Yin junhui. Financial Management test tutorial[M]. Beijing: Economic Science Press, 2005</p><p>　　[

69、3] Finance Department and corporate division. Corporate Finance General [M]. Beijing: China Financial and Economic Publishing House, 2007 </p><p>　　[4] Fan ling. Excel and financial management[M]. Beijing: H

70、igher Education Press, 2007. </p><p>　　[5] Wang Lihua. On the Management of Financial Risk [J]. Forestry projects, 2004. </p><p>　　[6] P H Werhane，R E Freedman. Study on Control of Financial R

71、isk. USA：Black well Business，1998,17—18</p><p>　　對企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險的預(yù)警和控制</p><p><b>　　劉敬忠 </b></p><p><b>　　經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易系</b></p><p><b>　　商丘工藝學(xué)院</b>

72、;</p><p><b>　　商丘，河南省，中國</b></p><p>　　sqzyljz@sina.com</p><p>　　摘要：財務(wù)風(fēng)險是企業(yè)不得不面對的財政義務(wù)，這種風(fēng)險主要是該公司金融資產(chǎn)相關(guān)的債務(wù)量函數(shù)。在某些時候公司無法支付所需的本金和利息，將使公司債務(wù)比例增加的可能性大大提高。金融風(fēng)險的早期預(yù)警和控制，可以有效的提供一個安

73、全穩(wěn)定的金融環(huán)境。本文認為，通過分析財務(wù)狀況，編制現(xiàn)金流量預(yù)算，建立財務(wù)風(fēng)險指標體系和計算模型，可以早期預(yù)報財務(wù)風(fēng)險。另一方面，通過建立有效的資本結(jié)構(gòu)，選擇正確的籌資方法，保持資產(chǎn)的高流動性可以有效地控制金融風(fēng)險。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：指數(shù)條款—金融風(fēng)險；預(yù)警指標；有效控制。</p><p><b>　　一、總論</b></p><p>

74、;<b>　　什么是財務(wù)風(fēng)險?</b></p><p>　　財務(wù)風(fēng)險是財務(wù)成果和財務(wù)狀況的風(fēng)險。財務(wù)風(fēng)險有狹義和廣義之分。狹義財務(wù)風(fēng)險是由企業(yè)負債引起的，具體的說是指企業(yè)因為借入資金而增加的喪失償債能力的可能和企業(yè)利潤（股東收益）的可變性；廣義財務(wù)風(fēng)險是指企業(yè)的財務(wù)系統(tǒng)中客觀存在的由于各種難以或無法預(yù)料和控制的因素作用，使企業(yè)實現(xiàn)的財務(wù)收益和預(yù)期財務(wù)收益發(fā)生背離，因而蒙受損失的機會或可能。&

75、lt;/p><p>　　在本文中，財務(wù)風(fēng)險是指由于結(jié)構(gòu)不合理和不恰當?shù)?，公司可能會失去償付能力的，將?dǎo)致企業(yè)預(yù)期收益下降的，投資者甚至破產(chǎn)的融資。</p><p>　　財務(wù)風(fēng)險是如何產(chǎn)生的呢?無數(shù)金融性質(zhì)的交易包括銷售和采購，投資和貸款，以及其他各種業(yè)務(wù)活動，產(chǎn)生了財務(wù)風(fēng)險。它可以出現(xiàn)在合法的交易中，新項目中，兼并和收購中，債務(wù)融資中，能源部分的成本中，或通過管理的活動，利益相關(guān)者，競爭者，外

76、國政府，或天氣出現(xiàn)。在當今社會，負債經(jīng)營是企業(yè)的一個必要的經(jīng)營策略。通過債務(wù)管理，企業(yè)可以彌補股票基金的不足，利用貸款基金獲利。生產(chǎn)和管理所需的資金一般來自發(fā)行股票（或股權(quán)基金）和債務(wù)。其中，債務(wù)的利息負擔(dān)（包括銀行貸款，發(fā)行公司債券，貿(mào)易信貸）是確定的。如果公司的債務(wù)占到很高的比例或者公司的資金總額利潤率低于利率，那么將會使股東可分配的利潤減少，股利減少，和股票投資的風(fēng)險增加。例如，當一個公司的資金利潤率為10%，相應(yīng)的公司貸款或發(fā)行

77、債券面臨的利率為8%，股東的利息收入將高于10%；如果一個企業(yè)的資金利潤率降低為8%，該公司將被要求支付8%的貸款或債券利息，普通股股東的收益將低于資金利潤率。事實上，財務(wù)杠桿作用導(dǎo)致公司的融資是一把雙刃劍，當通過籌資產(chǎn)生的利息率高于利率，這將給股東帶來收入增長效應(yīng)；否則它將成為收入減少的財務(wù)風(fēng)險。</p><p>　　公司在生產(chǎn)和管理過程中通常會遇到各種各樣的財務(wù)風(fēng)險。由于財務(wù)風(fēng)險的存在，企業(yè)要實現(xiàn)預(yù)期的財務(wù)收

78、益非常困難，一些財務(wù)風(fēng)險甚至可能會威脅到公司的正常運行和生產(chǎn)。目前，在一些企業(yè)，財務(wù)風(fēng)險沒有得到管理上的重視，那么如何預(yù)測潛在的財務(wù)風(fēng)險，在發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險后，怎樣對它們有一個有效地控制？</p><p>　　二、財務(wù)風(fēng)險的早期預(yù)警指標體系</p><p>　　財務(wù)風(fēng)險識別是對財務(wù)風(fēng)險管理內(nèi)容在不利風(fēng)險剛出現(xiàn)或出現(xiàn)之前，就予以識別，以準確把握各種財務(wù)風(fēng)險信號及其產(chǎn)生原因。財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警是要在

79、財務(wù)風(fēng)險實際發(fā)生之前，捕捉和監(jiān)視各種細微的跡象變動，以利預(yù)防和為采取適當對策爭取時間。集團要建立完善的信息管理系統(tǒng)，一旦發(fā)現(xiàn)財務(wù)風(fēng)險信號，就能準確及時傳至主要人員，以防事態(tài)的逐步擴大。</p><p>　　為了有效地防范財務(wù)風(fēng)險，企業(yè)應(yīng)采取一些措施和建立預(yù)警指標體系進行財務(wù)分析。</p><p>　　2.1分析收入水平時及時發(fā)現(xiàn)危險信號</p><p>　　公司收益

80、包括3個層次：營業(yè)收入，固定收入和周期性收入。營業(yè)收入即從剩余的總凈收入中扣除經(jīng)營成本，管理成本，銷售成本，所得稅和其他附加費用。固定收入是基于收入扣除財務(wù)費用的收入。而周期性收入是固定收入和凈非營業(yè)收入和支出總額。一個公司從開始承擔(dān)經(jīng)營收入損失的時候開始，該公司就幾乎臨近破產(chǎn)。如果周期性收入是黑色的，這可能是由于非核心業(yè)務(wù)收入或事故產(chǎn)生的，如證券、房地產(chǎn)銷售。如果經(jīng)營收入是黑色的，而正常收入是紅色的，那么危機信號已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)，這是因為企業(yè)

81、資本結(jié)構(gòu)不合理，借款規(guī)模大，利息負擔(dān)沉重。在這個時候，應(yīng)該采取一些早期的預(yù)警措施來避免財務(wù)危機。[1]81-82</p><p>　　2.2 建立現(xiàn)金流量預(yù)算和財務(wù)狀況分析體系</p><p>　　企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流量預(yù)算的編制是財務(wù)管理的一個重要組成部分。準確的現(xiàn)金流量預(yù)算可以幫助財務(wù)經(jīng)理分析財務(wù)狀況和提供風(fēng)險預(yù)警信號。作為公司理財對象的現(xiàn)金或現(xiàn)金流，在短期內(nèi)，企業(yè)是否能夠生存并不完全取決于他是

82、否是黑色的，而是取決于是否有足夠的用于支付各種費用的現(xiàn)金。該措施實施的前提是，公司能夠獲得利潤。對于普通的穩(wěn)定的業(yè)務(wù)，應(yīng)收賬款，應(yīng)付賬款以及存貨可以保持穩(wěn)定，因此經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額應(yīng)大于近利潤（否則，將會產(chǎn)生危險信號）。[2]125-126為了準確地制定現(xiàn)金流量預(yù)算，企業(yè)應(yīng)該總結(jié)各項具體的目標，指明未來的預(yù)期收入，現(xiàn)金流量，以量化的方式考慮財務(wù)狀況及投資計劃，在每十天，每一個月，每一個季度，每一年各個期間內(nèi)，建立滾動的現(xiàn)金流量預(yù)

83、算。</p><p>　　2.3建立風(fēng)險分析指標體系，即時監(jiān)控財務(wù)風(fēng)險。</p><p>　　下列指標是財務(wù)經(jīng)理常用的用于分析財務(wù)風(fēng)險的指標</p><p><b>　　1.盈利能力指標</b></p><p>　　從長遠來看，如果一個公司想遠離財務(wù)危機，必須具備良好的盈利能力，這樣它的外部融資能力和債務(wù)清算能力會更強。

84、指標包括：</p><p>　　總資產(chǎn)凈現(xiàn)值率=（經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量+從利息中獲得的股利或現(xiàn)金+現(xiàn)金支付的利息+現(xiàn)金交納的所得稅 / 平均資產(chǎn)總額</p><p>　　凈現(xiàn)值率=經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量 / 銷售收入凈額</p><p>　　股東利益的盈利能力=凈利潤 / 平均股東權(quán)益 </p><p><b>　　2.償付能力&

85、lt;/b></p><p>　　基本上，企業(yè)的風(fēng)險是由債務(wù)引起的，企業(yè)所經(jīng)營的自有資金只會操作風(fēng)險，而不是財務(wù)風(fēng)險。因此，衡量股權(quán)交易的金融風(fēng)險去確定資產(chǎn)負債率，需要比較股票交易的盈利能力和債務(wù)資本成本率，如果前者大于后者本金和利息的可收回的時間實現(xiàn)了財務(wù)杠桿利益；同時，償債能力也應(yīng)該考慮到，即，現(xiàn)金的數(shù)額或其金融流動性強的債務(wù)的分配額；無論各種金融產(chǎn)品是否在合理的資本范圍內(nèi)。評價指標如下：反映短期償債能

86、力的指標，如：流動比率，速動比率等指標；反映長期償債能力的指標，如資產(chǎn)負債率，權(quán)益乘數(shù)，長期負債與營運資金比率，資產(chǎn)收益率和資產(chǎn)負債率，等。</p><p><b>　　3.經(jīng)濟效益</b></p><p>　　經(jīng)濟效益的高低將直接體現(xiàn)在企業(yè)的管理程度上。反映資產(chǎn)管理的指標包括應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率和生產(chǎn)與需求之間的平衡率，其中：生產(chǎn)與需求之間的平衡率=產(chǎn)品銷售額/工業(yè)產(chǎn)值&

87、lt;/p><p><b>　　4.企業(yè)的發(fā)展?jié)摿?lt;/b></p><p>　　衡量企業(yè)發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ闹笜税ㄤN售增長率和資本保值增值率。本文采用改進的功效系數(shù)法進行綜合評價和規(guī)范各評價指標——一個是滿意的價值，而另一個是不允許值。然后設(shè)計并計算各指標的效率系數(shù)，利用德爾菲法確定各指標的權(quán)數(shù)，并用加權(quán)算術(shù)平均或加權(quán)幾何平均得到的平均值，即，綜合效率系數(shù)。該方法可以用來量化企業(yè)

88、的財務(wù)狀況。</p><p><b>　　5.財務(wù)靈活性</b></p><p>　　財務(wù)靈活性意味著企業(yè)必須采取有效的措施來改變現(xiàn)金流和現(xiàn)金周轉(zhuǎn)的時間，提高適應(yīng)未預(yù)料到的需求和機會的能力，這主要涉及由公司經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的凈現(xiàn)金流量這個因素。反映財務(wù)靈活性指標包括：用來檢驗企業(yè)總資產(chǎn)流動性水平的營運資金，總資產(chǎn)的比率，到期債務(wù)資本贖回率，實際凈資產(chǎn)與長期有形資產(chǎn)的比率，

89、應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率和存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率，等。</p><p>　　3.財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型的構(gòu)建</p><p>　　財務(wù)管理者能夠利用計算機技術(shù)（如Excel財務(wù)分析軟件）正和財務(wù)風(fēng)險指標，需要分析設(shè)計一個“財務(wù)風(fēng)險分析模型”。 建立數(shù)據(jù)基本區(qū)域（或建立一個數(shù)據(jù)表的鏈接）和計算分析區(qū)域，然后在估算分析區(qū)域中每個單元中的每一個分析指標之間創(chuàng)建公式和數(shù)據(jù)連接關(guān)系，以自動計算出各指標的值，最后將各個指標值與行

90、業(yè)標準值或參考值進行比較，繼而在任何時間獲得預(yù)警數(shù)據(jù)。例如，表中值是建立解析公式后自動生成的“短期償債能力比率”和“長期償債能力比率”，而在公式中使用的數(shù)據(jù)連接到各期的會計報表。因此，當每期的會計報表的數(shù)據(jù)被更新時，模型中需要被計算的分析值自動生成，來幫助金融高管及時地分析各期的財務(wù)風(fēng)險狀況。其他的金融風(fēng)險分析模型也像這樣設(shè)計，最后分析整合在一起。</p><p>　　四、加強企業(yè)財務(wù)預(yù)算管理(以集團公司為例)&

91、lt;/p><p>　　1.建立財務(wù)預(yù)算管理的組織機構(gòu)。</p><p>　　即集團公司的法定代表人對集團財務(wù)預(yù)算的管理工作負總責(zé)，成立由有關(guān)職能部門組成的財務(wù)預(yù)算管理委員會，主要擬訂財務(wù)預(yù)算的目標、政策，制定財務(wù)預(yù)算管理的具體措施和辦法，審議、平衡財務(wù)預(yù)算方案，組織下達財務(wù)預(yù)算，協(xié)調(diào)解決財務(wù)預(yù)算編制和執(zhí)行中的問題，組織審計、考核財務(wù)預(yù)算的執(zhí)行情況，督促企業(yè)完成財務(wù)預(yù)算目標。</p>

92、;<p>　　2.規(guī)范財務(wù)預(yù)算的編制程序和方法。</p><p>　　據(jù)集團公司的整體發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，按照“上下結(jié)合、分級編制、逐級匯總”的程序，在決策的基礎(chǔ)上，提出企業(yè)集團財務(wù)預(yù)算目標。各預(yù)算執(zhí)行部門按照企業(yè)財務(wù)預(yù)算委員會下達的財務(wù)預(yù)算目標和政策，結(jié)合自身特點以及預(yù)測的執(zhí)行條件，提出詳細的本部門財務(wù)預(yù)算方案，財務(wù)預(yù)算委員會應(yīng)當進行充分協(xié)調(diào)，對發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題提出初步調(diào)整的意見，并反饋給有關(guān)預(yù)算執(zhí)行部門予以修正

93、，再由財務(wù)預(yù)算委員會逐級下達各預(yù)算執(zhí)行部門執(zhí)行。</p><p>　　3.做好預(yù)算的事前控制、事中控制和事后控制。</p><p>　　各預(yù)算執(zhí)行部門定期報告財務(wù)預(yù)算的執(zhí)行情況，對新情況、新問題及出現(xiàn)偏差較大的重大項目，要特別注重查找原因，以提出改進經(jīng)營管理的措施建議。</p><p>　　4.充分利用實時信息系統(tǒng)進行財務(wù)監(jiān)控</p><p>

94、;　　內(nèi)部財務(wù)監(jiān)控機制，是防范和化解財務(wù)風(fēng)險的有效措施。內(nèi)部監(jiān)控包括會計控制和管理控制兩類。集團財務(wù)監(jiān)控工作建立在各項財務(wù)預(yù)算的基礎(chǔ)上，保證子公司的資本結(jié)構(gòu)良好，財務(wù)運作符合企業(yè)集團的整體利益，從而更好地防范和控制財務(wù)風(fēng)險，促進企業(yè)集團的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展。一般來講，可以向子公司派駐財務(wù)總監(jiān)，負責(zé)監(jiān)督子公司的財務(wù)行為；也可以通過董事會和監(jiān)事會對子公司進行監(jiān)控。對子公司的監(jiān)控結(jié)果，主要通過考核相關(guān)的指標進行，如現(xiàn)金比率、流動比率、不良資產(chǎn)比率、

95、資產(chǎn)損失比率和凈資產(chǎn)收益率等。</p><p>　　企業(yè)集團充分運用實時財務(wù)信息來跟蹤監(jiān)督和控制資金流，以消除無效的資金占用，提高資金使用效率，確保集團財務(wù)目標的實現(xiàn)。</p><p>　　5.對財務(wù)風(fēng)險的控制</p><p>　　如果企業(yè)對財務(wù)風(fēng)險有一個很好地控制，這將在企業(yè)的發(fā)展過程中起到積極作用。降低財務(wù)風(fēng)險將有利于為企業(yè)創(chuàng)造一個相對安全、穩(wěn)定的運行環(huán)境。建立

96、財務(wù)風(fēng)險指標體系之后，企業(yè)應(yīng)及時采取措施檢測企業(yè)情況和財務(wù)風(fēng)險。企業(yè)應(yīng)采取措施來控制他們發(fā)現(xiàn)的財務(wù)危險信號。他們可以從以下幾個方面來控制財務(wù)風(fēng)險。</p><p>　　1.高風(fēng)險意識。不能一味追求高利潤而不考慮后果，肆意籌集資金來增加財務(wù)負擔(dān)。利潤金額不是衡量一個公司能力的唯一標準。過度的債務(wù)不僅能讓企業(yè)背負沉重的利息負擔(dān)，一旦企業(yè)的再生產(chǎn)過程中斷或受阻，現(xiàn)金流發(fā)生困難，公司不能準時償還債務(wù)時，企業(yè)將面臨聲譽受損

97、的風(fēng)險，需要承擔(dān)賠償責(zé)任，最終將會導(dǎo)致破產(chǎn)。公司不能承擔(dān)危及企業(yè)生存的風(fēng)險，必須樹立強的風(fēng)險控制意識。</p><p>　　2.建立最有利的資本結(jié)構(gòu)。公司應(yīng)當考慮其風(fēng)險容忍的限度，然后按照需求選擇最有力的資本結(jié)構(gòu)。用最低的成本和最小的風(fēng)險獲得最大的投資回報，尋求風(fēng)險與收益之間的最佳匹配方案。</p><p>　　3.選擇合適的融資方式。在綜合考慮資金成本、財務(wù)風(fēng)險和其他各種影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上

98、，企業(yè)應(yīng)選擇下面的融資順序來控制財務(wù)風(fēng)險，從而將財務(wù)風(fēng)險減小到最小程度。首先，融資應(yīng)該從內(nèi)部積累開始。這種方式難度小、風(fēng)險小，可以為企業(yè)保留更多的貸款能力。第二，如果公司從外部籌集資金，他們的第一選擇應(yīng)該是發(fā)行股票，而最后的選擇應(yīng)是向銀行貸款，從而降低償還本金和償還最低限度的債務(wù)的財政壓力。</p><p>　　4.采取適當?shù)慕杩畈呗浴ｋm然有時借款可以增加企業(yè)利潤，提高現(xiàn)金總額，但是，不管在任何情況下，在企業(yè)環(huán)境

99、不斷變化中我們應(yīng)該明確企業(yè)借款收益的回報額。如果預(yù)期收益回報而無法確定，企業(yè)就沒有足夠的理由借款。因此，企業(yè)必須知道什么時候借款，什么時候不借款。只有這樣，財務(wù)風(fēng)險才可以被控制，以防止盲目借貸導(dǎo)致的財務(wù)損失。</p><p>　　5.保持資產(chǎn)的高流動性。資產(chǎn)流動性高，是企業(yè)控制財務(wù)風(fēng)險，減少財務(wù)負擔(dān)的重要保證。也能夠讓資本回收的期望更容易實現(xiàn)，資本流動性更強，企業(yè)抵御財務(wù)風(fēng)險的能力也會更強。</p>

100、<p>　　6.保持盈利能力。如果利潤不能滿足財務(wù)需求，企業(yè)必須依靠現(xiàn)金余額，出售短期金融資產(chǎn)，或者借更多的債務(wù)來彌補資金缺口，增加企業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險。</p><p>　　因此，保持盈利，增加資本，和減少債務(wù)能夠有效地控制財務(wù)風(fēng)險。</p><p><b>　　參考文獻</b></p><p>　　[1] 國家專業(yè)會計資格考試領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組

101、辦公室.中級財務(wù)管理[M]. 北京：中國財政經(jīng)濟出版社，2008.</p><p>　　[2] 魏亞萍，尹均慧. 財務(wù)管理實驗教程[M]. 北京：科學(xué)經(jīng)濟出版社，2005.</p><p>　　[3] 財務(wù)部門和企業(yè)部門。企業(yè)的基本財務(wù)[M]. 北京：中國財政經(jīng)濟出版社，2007.</p><p>　　[4] 范玲.Excel和財務(wù)管理[M].北京：高等教育出版社，