匯豐銀行-歐洲-能源設(shè)備行業(yè)-上游太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)中國加強控制-2019.6.21-21頁

1、Disclosurestradepolicycatalystisstillonthetable?RetainHoldonWackerChemie(newTP14%toEUR73)RECSilicon(newTP9%toNOK0.6)HSBCsolarcoveragenowincludeskeyChinalistedproducersHSBCcoverageofthesolarsupplychainsectnowincludeskeyCh

2、inalistedupstreamstreamproducers(seeourSpotlightreptChinaSolarEquipment:Initiatecoverage:Brighterdaysahead20June2019).Chinacontinuestoexertdominanceinsolarin2018accountedf8294%ofsolarwafercellmodulesupply(upfrom68%in2010

3、).Chinaistighteningitsgriponthepolysilicon(poly)segmentasseveralproducersrampcapacitythrough2019.China’slowcostleadershipmovingintopolyInthe25MarchreptGlobalUpstreamSolar:Limitedpricerecoveryshoulddriverecddemyearwefecas

4、tthatChinawouldproduceover60%ofglobalpolyin2019(vs14%in2010)accountfthesixlowestcostproducers.Weseeupto25GWofpolyoversupplyin2019whichcoulddriveshttermstockpilinglimitupsidetoapolypricerecoveryinH2.Thisremainsaheadwindfu

5、pstreamEuropeanOEMsdespiteourexpectationofarobustH2volumereboundinsolarthebuoyantmoodofindustryparticipantsattherecentIntersolartradefairinMunich.LowerpolyASPassumptionsdrivedownTPsretainHoldratingsWelowerpolyourASPassum

6、ptionsfWackerChemieRECSilicontoreflecttheongoingweakpricingtrendthroughQ2retainourHoldratings.WecutWacker’s2019eEBITDAtothebottomoftheguidancerangelowerourTPby14%toEUR73toreflectconcurrentweaknessinsiliconestheprofitwarn

7、ingatSiltronic.RECisholdingoutfUSChinatradetalksattheupcomingG20on2829JunetodeliveralastgaspresolutiontothetradedisputewhichhasseenitlockedoutoftheChinesepolymarket.Giventheuncertaintyoverthiscatalystwhichhasanincreasing

8、lybinaryoutcomeweretainourHoldonRECwithanewTPofNOK0.6(down9%vsourpreviousTP).KeychangestoratingsestimatesCurrent______TP________Rating___UpsideCompanyTickerCurrencypriceOldNewOldNewdownsideWackerChemie`WCHG.DEEUR68.68573

9、HoldHold6.4%RECSiliconREC.OLNOK0.580.650.60HoldHold3.4%Source:BloombergHSBCestimates.Pricedasofcloseat19June201921June2019SeanMcLoughlinIndustrialsRenewables&GridAnalystHSBCBankplcsean.mcloughlin@442079913464JoergreFinke

10、CFAHeadofEquityResearchGermanyHSBCTrinkaus&BurkhardtAG492119103722EmployedbyanonUSaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)IncisnotregisteredqualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsUpstreamsolarEquitiesEnergyEquipmentEuropeChinatightens

11、itsgrip3Equities●EnergyEquipment21June2019InpolysiliconweexpectpolycostleaderslikeTongweiDaqotoincreasemarketshareinacompetitiveenvironmentputtinghighercostproducerslikeWackerRECunderpressure(thoughWackerhasaverydefensib

12、lepositionasthehighestqualitysupplier).FollowingthepricedeclinesYTDonlysomeplayerslikeTBEATongweiDaqowerestillprofitableinQ1whileothers–includingWackerChemie’spolyunit–postedlosses.Chinaleadingthecostracefpolysiliconprod

13、uctionin2019Source:BNEFSolarpricingshowinglimitedsignsofrecoveryOnanannualbasisthe3543%pricedeclinesupstreamhavefedthroughtodeclinesfwaferscells(2830%)withalower(c24%)fmodules.Themainreasonftheseaggressivedeclinesinsolar

14、priceswasamixofthe17%yoyfallinChinesePVinstallationsin2018theaggressiveongoingcapacityexpansioninbothupstreamdownstreamlargelybyChinesesuppliersresultinginmaterialoversupplyinthemarket.Solarspotpricetrendspoly9N9Npoly68N

15、MultiwaferMonowaferMulticellMultimodulePricesat:(USDkg)(USDkg)(USDW)(USDW)(USDW)(USDW)12Jun198.26.00.060.080.110.22%change1W0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%1M1.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%5.7%1.4%3M9.1%12.2%6.0%1.1%2.8%0.0%1Y35.2%43.0%29.7%27

16、.6%24.3%23.9%YTD11.7%15.6%4.9%2.7%6.7%1.4%Source:PVinsightsSolarhasabrightfuture–ourfeedbackfromIntersolar2019Theflipsideoflowercostsisachangeinindustryperception.Wemetparticipantsacrossthesolarsupplychainon1516MayatInte

17、rsolar2019inMunichthelargestsolarsecttradefairinEurope.Wenotedaparticularlybuoyantmoodamongparticipantsrisingcustomerinterestmarkingveryhighattendance.WhatisIntersolarThelargestsolarindustryeventinEuropeIntersolarhasexpe

18、dtoincludeadjacentinfrastructuretechnologiessuchasenergystageEVgingequipment.Incontrasttonumbersafewyearsagotheeventwasverywellattendedwithmethan50000visitsover20.020.015.010.810.07.57.16.56.20.05.010.015.020.025.0JapanR