2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁
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1、31May2019EconomicsFocus:InAsiaRBIislikelytodeliveranother25bpsratecuthintatme.InCEEMEAwatchfCPIdataacrosstheregion(TurkeyRussiaHungaryPol)BoIonILSconcernsthusintervention.MeanwhileQ1GDPinSouthAfricawilllikelyconfirmarene

2、weddownturnwhileNBPremainsonhold.InLatAmweseeBCChonholdat3%mostoftheattentionwillbeonthecentralbank’supdatedestimatesofpotentialoutputtheneutralinterestrateincludedintheIPoM.WatchalsofChile’sactivitydata(whereweexpectthe

3、Imacecat2.2%yyvs.1.9%yy)inflation(torisefrom2%yyto2.3%yyonenergypricesaweakerpeso).InMexicoweexpecta4.5%yyprintwhichislikelytokeepinflationexpectationsunderpressure.InArgentinafocusonalliancesfthepresidentialracelocalele

4、ctions(inSanJuanGovernSergioUacwhorecentlyannouncedhissupptto“LosFernez”willrunfreelection).StrategyFocus:EMofferslittleintrinsicvalueonlingeringidiosyncraticrisksreducedpushfromtheglobaleconomy.Wecontinuetofavhardcurren

5、cydebtvs.EMFXwhilestillneutralEMcredit.FocusonRVopptunitiesgeneratedbyrecentdislocationsdomesticfundamentalsasdeterminantsoflocalfixedincome.nFX:EMFXcontinuestodriftinlinewiththeUSDgrowthfearsdomesticidiosyncraticshocks.

6、WereverttoourlongtermbearishstanceonZARongrowthconstrainedpathtorefmsbutmaintainourbullishviewonRUB(vs.USDMXNonmountaingrowthfiscalrisks)asthefundamentalunderpinningswhichsupptedthecurrencyinQ1(BoPpositioningvaluationrea

7、lratesbuffer)remainsolidlyinplace.StayneutralTRYuntilacrediblesolutionfgeopoliticalrisksisfoundbearishHUFonCBsdovishstance.WearetacticallyshtILSonBoIsintensifiedrheticagainstthestrongexchangeratewhilethedissolutionofparl

8、iamentincreasesthechanceoffiscalslippageintothenextelections.LatAmpartsofAsiaremainmesensitivetoUSChinatradetensions.BoththeCLPCOPhaveovershotfundamentalsEMFX.WepositionfsomeretracementviasellingEURCOPMXNCOPZARCLP.TheBRL

9、hasrecoveredafterourrecommendationtobuyUSDBRLhititstargetat4.10.Weseefurtherretracementaspoliticalnoiseeasesbuteventrisksremainhigh.nRates:TheglobalenvironmentremainsmefavablefEMFIthanEMFXonlowerceratesfallingoilprices.T

10、hisvaluationstillsupptourRussiaoverweightflattercurvesinBrazilMexicoColombiaPeru.KeepamodestoverweightonTurkeyonvaluationlightpositioningfallinginflationbutstayneutralSouthAfricaonaggressiveDrausioGiacomelliStrategistJed

11、EvansStrategistSebastianA.BrownStrategistHongtaoJiangStrategistJulianaLeeChiefEconomistKubilayOzturkChiefEconomistDavidPetitcolinStrategistChristianWietoskaStrategistJundongZhangMacroStrategistDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.D

12、ISCLOSURESANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)066042019.DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsEMMacroStrategyFocusDateDistributedon:3105201916:42:11GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa31May2019EMMacroStrategyFocusDeutsche

13、BankSecuritiesInc.Page3TableOfContentsTopTrades..........................................................................................................4TopEconomicReleases...............................................

14、......................................5EMGlobalStrategy............................................................6EMFlowsAsharpswingtooutflows..............................................................6LatAmStrategy

15、..................................................................8TradewarheatsupontheSouthernFront.........................................................8AssessingacrosscurrencyrelativevalueinLatAm...................

16、......................11Brazil:Whatnextfrates...............................................................................17Chileachangeofscenario........................................................................

17、.....19CEEMEAStrategy.............................................................20SouthAfricahowtotradelocalmarkets........................................................20Russiahowtotradelocalmarkets.................

18、.................................................22Turkeylocalmarketsfeignflowupdate......................................................24TheCEEMEALocalMarketsPtfolio....................................................

19、..........26SupplyDemdynamics–recappingtheweek............................................27EconomicsFocus.............................................................28Asia...............................................

20、...................................................................28CEEMEA..........................................................................................................29LatAm................................

21、..............................................................................31EconomicDataMarketAnalytics..............................36ValueinEMFixedIncome:Amodelapproach..............................................

22、..36EconomicsMarketsHighlights.................................................................38BondAuctions.................................................................................................39BondAuctions

23、.................................................................................................40EconomicReleases..........................................................................................41EconomicRelea

24、ses..........................................................................................42AllOpenTradeRecommendations..................................................................44RecentPublications............

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