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1、1Equities●AirlinesJune2019It’snotjustthevastaddressablemarketthesizeofthecountrytheincreaseindisposableincometheeasingofaviationregulationsthataresoappealing.Whatwereallylikeisthestagethelowcostcarrier(LCC)industryhasrea
2、chedinChina.TheUSEuropeprovidegoodpointersfhowtheLCCindustrycandevelopinChina.ThesemarketstellusthatLCCsstarttoprosperwhenflyinglosestheluxurycachetassociatedwiththewealthybusinesstravel.Demboomswhenmasstourismincreasesa
3、irfaresbecomeincreasinglyaffdable.ThetwokeyindicatstowatchareGDPpercapitathepriceofairfaresasapercentageofaveragedisposableincome.BasedonthesemetricswebelieveChina’sLCCsareinasweetspot.Wethinktheycantripletheirshareofthe
4、country’saviationmarketinthenextdecade.Theoutlookfthesupplysideaprobleminthepastisalsoimproving.Keyfactsincludetheeasingofaviationregulationsmeairptcapacitywhichwillcreatenewflightslotsthemassproductionofadomesticaircraf
5、t.WeinitiatecoverageonSpringAirlines(Buy)JuneyaoAirlines(Buy)ChinaExpressAirlines(Buy).Theirbusinessmodelsvarybuttheyshouldallbenefitfromwhatweseeasbeinga‘goldendecade’ftheLCCindustryinChina.Whyreadthisrept?Weexplainwhyw
6、ethinkChina’slowcostcarriers(LCCs)areinasweetspotdemissettoboomasmasstourismincreasesairfaresbecomeincreasinglyaffdable?Theoutlookfthesupplysideisimprovingtootheeasingofaviationregulationsairptgrowthfleetexpansionwillpow
7、ergrowthincapacity?WeinitiatecoverageonthreeChineseLCCsweexplainwhywepreferSpringAirlines(Buy)3Equities●AirlinesJune2019TheriseofChina’slowcostcarrier(LCC)airlinesSource:BureauofEconomicAnalysisHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesTheri
8、seofChina’slowcostcarrier(LCC)airlinesEasingpressuresonthesupplysidearepositivefChina’sLCCsWebelievethegrowingpopularityofmasstravelincreasinglyaffdableflightticketswilldrivethedemfLCCswhileeasingpressureonthesupplysidew
9、illboosttransptcapacity.WeinitiatecoverageonSpringAirlinesJuneyaoAirlinesChinaExpressAirlinesIn2017China’sLCCsflew62.24mpassengers11.3%shareofChina’saviationmarket5bnairtripsweremadeinChinain2017Passengertrafficofdomesti
10、cLCCswillgrowataCAGRof20%over201827increasetheiraviationmarketshareto35%RevisedflightslotstimeallocationsystemrefmaquantitativescingsystemOverthenextfiveyearsanumberofcitieswillbuildnewhubairptsexpexistingfacilitiesMassp
11、roductionoftheC919expectedtobeginin2021boostingcapacitygrowth19601.2%0.8%0.4%019902017Thecostofairfaresasa%ofincomehaspedbelow1%SpringAirlines601021CHBUYJuneyaoAirlines603885CHBUYChinaExpressAirlines002928CHBUYBy2027weex
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