信用債年度策略報(bào)告涅槃重生，靜待轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)

1、目錄1.回顧2018年，信用債牛市一波三折........................................61.1信用債牛市一波三折，當(dāng)前利差處于低位..............................61.2高等級(jí)好于低等級(jí)，近期資質(zhì)有所下沉................................71.3一級(jí)市場(chǎng)凈融資回暖，但結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題突出................................7

2、1.4信用環(huán)境整體偏負(fù)面，評(píng)級(jí)上調(diào)大幅減少..............................82.紓困政策陸續(xù)落地，信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有所緩釋......................................92.12018年信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)頻發(fā)，民企成重災(zāi)區(qū).................................92.2信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)頻發(fā)背后的原因：融資收縮.................................112

3、.3為化解信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，已經(jīng)出臺(tái)了哪些政策？.............................122.4外部融資環(huán)境好轉(zhuǎn)，民企信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解...............................132.4.1CRM緩解民企債融資難問(wèn)題...................................132.4.2信貸若發(fā)力將有效彌補(bǔ)民企融資缺口............................152.5政策改善融資環(huán)

4、境，期待減稅釋放企業(yè)活力...........................172.6民企債擇優(yōu)配臵...................................................173.城投：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)短期降低，長(zhǎng)期隱憂仍存.......................................183.1城投債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較前期有所緩釋.......................................18

5、3.2城投債市場(chǎng)回溫，表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于產(chǎn)業(yè)債...................................203.3短期投資樂(lè)觀，長(zhǎng)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)未除.......................................204.地產(chǎn)：融資尚未實(shí)質(zhì)好轉(zhuǎn)，地產(chǎn)債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)難降.................................214.1地產(chǎn)行業(yè)融資緊張尚未好轉(zhuǎn).....................................

6、....214.2地產(chǎn)債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)難降...................................................235.投資策略：涅槃重生，靜待轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)...........................................245.1牛市下半場(chǎng)，信用唱主角...........................................245.2違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)趨降，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好趨升...............

7、........................245.3反攻時(shí)機(jī)已至，沖鋒仍待觀察.......................................24圖32房地產(chǎn)集合信托平均發(fā)行利率（%）..................................23圖33主要金融機(jī)構(gòu)房地產(chǎn)貸款余額增速情況................................23圖34房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)利差及超額利差情況（%）........