northkorea'sregimestumbles

1、NthKeasregimestumblesAnembarrassingclimbdownputsNthKeasKimJongIlinadifficultpositionFeb10th2010|SEOULTOKYO|FromTheEconomistprinteditionAFPHOWEVERloathsomehisneighboursfindKimJongIlthenucleararmedNthKeandictattherearefeww

2、hodonotalsoadmitthatbeneaththebighairlurksatacticalgeniuswithaflairfsurvival.AthomeNthKeansaresmotheredbyhisruthlesspersonalitycult.Withtheoutsidewldheisanadeptblackmailer:actmadenoughtobedangerousthenbeconciliatyinexcha

3、ngefcash.Recentlyhoweveronbothcountshehasmadetacticalmistakes.Noneoftheseareseriousenoughtoendangerhisregimediplomatssay.ButtheyareencouragingtothosewhobelievetheycaneventuallypushNthKeabacktotalksaboutdismantlingitsnucl

4、eararsenal.theyreaffirmthebenefitsofwhattheAmericanscall“strategicpatience”:waitinguntilNthKeaisdesperateenoughtoofferconcessions.Eventheregimeappearsinitsoddballwaytohaveacknowledgedthemostrecentblunder.Newsreptsthismon

5、thsuggestthatNthKeahasreversedsomeelementsofacrackdownonprivateenterprisethatitunleashedwithacackhedredenominationofthewononNovember30th.Intheinterimthecurrencycollapsedthepriceofricesurgedbyasmuchas50timesmuchoftraders’

6、wkingcapitalfbuyingsellinggoodswaswipedout.Aaseizingupoffooddistributionthereweresomeraregrumblesofprotest.ButsinceearlyFebruaryregulationsontradinginthejangmadangmarketsacrossNthKeaappeartohavebeenliftedaccdingtonewsrep

7、ts.Officialprices(whicharenotnecessarilywhatarepaid)havebeenposted.Akiloofricecosts240won($1.80)(abitlessthanapairofsocks)atoothbrushis25won.MeanwhiletheDearLeaderhasmadewhatsomeobserversbelievetobeanunprecedentedapology

8、tohispeopleffeedingthem“brokenrice”notprovidingenoughwhitericebreadnoodles.Hewashesaid“heartbroken”implicitlyacknowledgedhehadviolatedanoathtohisgodlikefatherKimIlSungtofeedthepeoplericemeatsoup.Addingtothepoignancyexper

9、tssaythebungledrefmsweredoneinthenameofKimJongUnthedictat’sthirdsonpotentialheir.Theyoungman’sinvolvementmayhavebeenpartofastrategyteassertStaliniststylestatecontroloftheenfeebledeconomyaheadof2012the100thanniversaryofgr

10、fatherKim’sbirth.PeopleknowledgeableonNthKeaarelothtobelievethatsuchaplanhasbeenabonednotleastbecausethesmallmarketsthathaveflourishedsincethefamineofthe1990srepresentsuchachallengetothestate’sauthity.Buttheysaytheinepti

11、tudemusthavebeenglaringlyobviouseveninthehermeticstate.“Thegovernmenthasneversaidsrytothepeopleespeciallyonatopicassensitiveasrice”saysreiLankovofKookminUniversityinSeoulwhohaswrittenalotonNthKeahasdescribeditsleadersasb

12、rilliantMachiavellians.“BecauseofKimJongIl’sagetheageofthosearoundhimitlookslikehemaybelosingtouchwithreality.”MrLankovbelievestheremayhavebeenasimilarmiscalculationinNthKea’srecentbehaviourtowardsAmericaChinaSouthKeaJap

13、anRussiathecountrieswithwhomin2003itstartedonagainoffagaindenuclearisationnegotiationsknownasthesixpartytalks.Itsfiringofalongrangemissileexplosionofanuclearbombinquicksuccessionlastyearhardenedtheresolveofthefivetostren

14、gthenUnitedNationssanctionsagainstPyongyangmaintainthemuntilitgivesgroundonitsnukes.HowevermuchMrKimhascajoledcoaxedinthemonthssincehehasnotyetmanagedtodividethem.What’smediplomatssayheappearstobeincreasinglyopentodiscus

15、singareturntothesixpartytalkssomethingwhichlastyearhevowed“never”todo.ChinawhichisclosesttoNthKeachairsthesixpartyfumsentWangJiaruiaseniCommunistPartyofficialtomeetMrKimthisweekinvitehimtoBeijing.MrKimmadenopubliccommitm

16、entregardingthesixpartytalks.ButhisnuclearnegotiatreturnedwithMrWangtotheChinesecapital.LeeMyungbakSouthKea’spresidentsurprisedhiscountrymenbysayingthathetoohopedtomeetMrKim“withinthisyear”.Thetimingwasodd.Hisstatementca

17、meataboutthetimeNthKeawaslobbingartilleryshellsthreateninglyintotheYellowSea.ButitrevealedwhatofficialssayisatwintrackprocessinSeoultoengageNthKea:bilaterallyviathesixpartyframewk.“MyimpressionisthattheNthKeansaremovingi

18、nthedirectionoftalks”saysWiSunglacSouthKea’sspecialrepresentativefpeaceonthepeninsula.竟然放棄了這次經(jīng)濟(jì)改革計(jì)劃。不過他們也說到，之所以會(huì)這樣，應(yīng)該是因?yàn)樨泿鸥母锼斐傻膼毫佑绊懸呀?jīng)變得極其嚴(yán)重了?！氨表n政府從來沒有向人民道過歉，尤其是像食物供給這樣敏感的部分。金正日及其親信都年事已高，他看上去并沒有準(zhǔn)確地認(rèn)識(shí)現(xiàn)實(shí)”。韓國國民大學(xué)教授安德烈蘭考夫（re

19、iLankov）這樣談到。他曾經(jīng)出版過多部朝鮮研究著作，并稱朝鮮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人為“馬基雅維利主義者”。蘭考夫教授表示，朝鮮近來在“六方會(huì)談”問題上也做出了相似的錯(cuò)誤決策。六方會(huì)談始于2003年，美國，中國，韓國，日本和俄羅斯與朝鮮進(jìn)行了多次斷斷續(xù)續(xù)的棄核談判。去年朝鮮發(fā)射了遠(yuǎn)程導(dǎo)彈，緊接著還試爆了一顆原子彈。這樣的舉動(dòng)使參與會(huì)談的其他五國加強(qiáng)了聯(lián)合國對(duì)朝鮮的制裁措施，并在朝鮮在核問題上作出讓步之前維持這樣的嚴(yán)厲制裁。金正日隨后進(jìn)行了多次口頭讓步

20、，但都沒有能分化五國的強(qiáng)硬立場。此外，外交人士說，盡管去年金正日還揚(yáng)言“永不”重返六方會(huì)談，但他似乎逐步愿意通過談判重返六方會(huì)談。中國是六方會(huì)談的主辦國，也是五國中與朝鮮關(guān)系最密切的國家。這周早些時(shí)候，中國派遣高級(jí)官員王家瑞（王家瑞系中共中央對(duì)外聯(lián)絡(luò)部部長，2010年2月6日訪朝——譯者注）訪問朝鮮，會(huì)見了金正日并邀請(qǐng)其訪問北京。金正日并沒有就六方會(huì)談問題公開表態(tài)。但他的核問題談判代表隨王家瑞一同返回北京。韓國總統(tǒng)李明博近來作出了一個(gè)令

21、人震驚的表態(tài)，他表示他也希望“在年內(nèi)”與金正日進(jìn)行會(huì)談。這個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)顯得很微妙，因?yàn)榫驮诖饲俺r向黃海海域發(fā)射了多枚炮彈（指1月底朝鮮連續(xù)多日炮擊黃海的朝韓爭議海域——譯者注）。李明博的這一舉動(dòng)表明，韓國在朝韓問題上正在執(zhí)行“雙軌”策略——即同時(shí)通過雙邊談判和六方會(huì)談框架進(jìn)行外交。韓國韓半島和平交涉本部部長魏圣洛表示：“我認(rèn)為朝鮮正在向會(huì)談方向靠攏?！钡?，朝鮮和參與六方會(huì)談的其他各國都為談判設(shè)置了很多苛刻的條件，因此重開六方會(huì)談的前景仍

22、然不同樂觀。朝鮮要求在重返會(huì)談前放松聯(lián)合國的制裁，并與美國簽訂正式的和平協(xié)議以正式結(jié)束1950到53年的朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭。而美國對(duì)這兩項(xiàng)要求都加以拒絕。一名東亞某國外交官表示，參與會(huì)談的其他五國要求朝鮮采取“切實(shí)“的棄核行動(dòng)作為重開會(huì)談和放松制裁的先決條件，”在這一點(diǎn)上我們五國不會(huì)作出任何讓步“。在這種情況下，對(duì)朝鮮的人道主義援助降到了低點(diǎn)。去年韓國對(duì)朝鮮的公開援助僅為3700萬美元，而2007年的援助額則高達(dá)2.09億美元。官員表示，李明博政

23、府決不會(huì)為了使朝鮮同意進(jìn)行峰會(huì)而對(duì)其進(jìn)行任何援助。而朝鮮的另一個(gè)從獲取韓國外匯的渠道——跨界旅游和合辦工廠項(xiàng)目——去年則沒有取得任何進(jìn)展。不過金正日手中仍然有幾張好牌。它還可以利用中美在臺(tái)灣和西藏問題上的緊張關(guān)系從中漁利，而中國對(duì)朝鮮港口和礦山資源的戰(zhàn)略性考慮也可能會(huì)使它對(duì)朝鮮的行為更加容忍。但是在朝鮮這樣一個(gè)需要靠宗教性的個(gè)人崇拜來維持的國度里，經(jīng)濟(jì)和外交上的任何一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤都可能會(huì)造成重大的后果。特別是在朝鮮人通過走私的DVD和電話越來