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1、NthAmericaCpateResearch30October2018USAirlinesQ3Wrap:Severalratingschangesasmarketderates.SouthwestAmericancreditupdate.Wecontinuetobelievethatatradingtrifectahasfmedininvestsfav.Thecasefindustrymarginexpansionremainsthe

2、bestweveseeninfouryears.Moststocksarewithin10%oftheirautumnallowssuggestingseasonaltradewindsmayliftequitiesastheyoftendo.AmericanrecentlytriggeredourproprietaryD3030tradingrule.Wearehardpressedtorecallatimewhenfundament

3、alsseasonalityaD3030triggerhavecoalescedsimultaneously.Butwecantignethemarketsrecentderatingofnearlytwomultipleturns.Giventhisphenomenonwe’vemateriallydiminishedourtargetmultiples.Inconjunctionwithourearningsrevisionsthi

4、sdrivesfourratingschanges:UnitedSpirittoNeutralfromOverweightSouthwesttoUnderweightfromNeutralJetBluetoOverweightfromNeutral.?Whathasn’tchanged–Theindustryremainsonapathtowardsmarginexpansionfthefirsttimesince2014loweryr

5、yrcapacityrobustdemdisciplinaryfuelnoimmediaterisktolabcostassumptions.FurthermewevedemonstratedthathistyfavsbuyingairlinestocksinSepOctholdingthemintoAprMaymostareJ.P.MganSecuritiesLLCNishantMani(1212)6225707nishant.man

6、i@J.P.MganSecuritiesLLCKaranPuri(9122)61573327karan.puri@J.P.MganIndiaPrivateLimitedAirlines&AircraftLeasingCreditMarkStreeterCFAAC(1212)8345086mark.streeter@J.P.MganSecuritiesLLCIanBSnyder(1212)8343798ian.b.snyder@J.P.M

7、ganSecuritiesLLCEquityRatingsPriceTargetsCompanyTickerMktCap($mn)Price($)RatCuringPrevPriceTaCurrgetPrevUnitedContinentalHoldingsInc.UALUS25825.6584.99NOW95.0098.00AmericanAirlinesAALUS16029.1732.60OWnc46.0053.00DeltaAir

8、LinesInc.DALUS36310.0053.42OWnc71.0072.00JetBlueAirwaysCp.JBLUUS5335.6316.16OWN20.00ncSpiritAirlinesSAVEUS3615.2052.09NOW59.0051.00SouthwestAirlinesCo.LUVUS28877.7547.91UWN52.0063.00AlaskaAirGroupInc.ALKUS7571.4661.00UWn

9、c57.00ncSource:CompanydataBloombergJ.P.Mganestimates.nc=nochange.Allpricesasof29Oct18.Seepage30fanalystcertificationimptantdisclosuresincludingnonUSanalystdisclosures.J.P.Mgandoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinit

10、sresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.JamieBaker(1212)62267

11、13jamie.baker@NthAmericaCpateResearch30October2018inrates(weightedaveragecouponof4.59%perBloombergbasicallyinlinewithbothUALDAL)Americanwillbeleftwithamaterialnonoperatingexpensedisadvantageiftheeconomiccycledeteriatessi

12、gnificantly.Notethat~$2bnindebtmaturesnextyear$750mmspecificallyontheunsecuredsidewiththe5.5%bondsdue1Oct19(therestismostlyaircraftdebtrelatedamtizationprincipal).AAL’sratingsmomentumhasstalleduntilratiosimprove(higherca

13、pexnextyearismostlyoffsetbyareductioninthepensionburdenmeonthisbelow)butwedostillseeupsidefromlowBB(unsecuredbondsratedB1BBBBMoody’snotchesdownonefromBa3familyrating)toBBeventually.WeremaincomftablewiththeAALshtdatedunse

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