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1、外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯原文：QuarterlyEarningsPatternsEarningsManagementEmpiricalevidencesuggeststhatfirmsmanageearningstoavoidreptinglossesearningsdecreasestomeetanalystsexpectations.Iffirmsmanageearningstomeetbeatatargetnumberadjust

2、mentstoearningsarelikelytobemadewhentheexcessshtfallfromthetargetbecomesknown.Hencethetimingofmanipulationislikelytobeacriticaldistinguishingfeaturethatcouldprovideameanstodetectsuchtargetmanagementbehavi.Consistentwitht

3、hisviewinvestmentexpertscautioninveststowatchoutflateyearsurgesinrevenuesearningswhichtheyregardastelltalesignsofearningsmanipulation.Articlesinthebusinesspressdatingbacktothe1990scitecasesoftechnologycompaniesreptingdis

4、proptionateincreasesinrevenuesearningsinthefourthquarter.Inthispaperweexploitthetimingconstraintonafirmsabilitytomanagetoatargetexaminewhetherthepatternofquarterlyearningscanprovideanindicationofpotentialearningsmanageme

5、nt.Ourfocusonpotentialearningsmanagementinthefourthquarterimplicitlysuggeststhatmanagershavegreaterincentivestomanageannualratherthanquarterlyresults.Insupptofourassumptionmostaccountingbasedperfmancemeasuresusedinbonusc

6、ompensationschemesarebasedonauditedannualearnings.Alsoifcapitalmarketparticipantsperceiveauditedannualearningsasmecrediblethaninterimearningstheymayplaceahighervalueonannualearningsprovidingmanagerswithstrongerincentives

7、tomanipulateannualearnings.Thusalthoughmanagersmayhavegreateropptunitiestomanipulateinterimearningsbecauseoftheabsenceofanindependentaudittheirincentivestomanageearningsininterimquartersmaybeweaker.Thevastliteratureonear

8、ningsmanagementreliesonanaccrualexpectationmodeltoestimateabnmaldiscretionaryaccruals.Empiricalstudiestypicallyidentifyasamplefwhichthedirectionofearningsmanagementispredictedthentestwhethertheabnmalaccrualsofthesamplesu

9、spectedofearningsmanagementarehigherlowerthansomebenchmark.Theinherentdifficultyinmodelingaccrualsleadstomodelmisspecificationlowpowertestsresultinginseriousinferenceproblems.ThusthereIncentivestomanageannualratherthanin

10、terimquartersearningsmaybestrongerfseveralreasons.Mostbonuscompensationplansbasedonaccountingperfmancerelyonauditedannualresultsratherthannotauditedquarterlyresults.Suchremunerationschemesprovideincentivesfmanagerstomani

11、pulatefiscalyearincometoachievepresettargetsindertomaximizetheircompensation.Thefirmsstinginrelationtothesetargetswilllikelybemostclearlyapparentinthefourthquarterthusprovidingmanagerswiththestrongestincentivetomanageear

12、ningsinthefourthquarter.Furthermeauditedannualearningsmayhavehighervaluationimplicationsifinvestsattachgreatercredibilitytothemrelativetointerimearningsprovidingmanagerswithstrongerincentivestomanipulateannualearnings.Pr

13、iempiricalstudiesprovideindirectevidenceconsistentwithmanagershavingstrongerincentivestomanageearningsatthefiscalyearend.Severalofthesestudiesexaminethemarketresponsetoearningsannouncementsfabroadcrosssectionoffirmsinfer

14、whetherfirmsmanageearningsdifferentiallyacrossinterimfourthquarters.FexampleKrossSchroeder(1989)SalamonStober(1994)findthatthemarketsreactiontoanearningssurpriseislowerinthefourthquarterrelativetointerimquarters.Bothstud

15、iesattributetheirfindingstoearningsmanagementatthefiscalyearendtothesettlingupofinterimaccrualsinthefourthquarter.Otherempiricalstudiesexaminepropertiesofearningsdistributionsdrawinferencesaboutpotentialearningsmanagemen

16、tinthefourthquarter.JeterShivakumar(1999)examinesquaredabnmalaccrualsofinterimversusfourthquartersfindthattheevidenceofpotentialearningsmanagementisgreaterinthefourthquarterthanininterimquarters.AlsothefindingsofDegegePa

17、telZeckhauser(1999)suggestthatthespecialsaliencyofannualreptscreatesadditionalincentivestomanipulateearningstocrossanannualthreshold(relativetoquarterlythresholds)asreflectedbythevariationinfourthquarterearnings.Similarl

18、yJacobJgensen(2007)showthemanagersattemptstoavoidlosses(earningsdecreases)reflectedbythediscontinuityinthedistributionsoffiscalyearearnings(earningschanges)atzeroarenotobservableinannualperiodsendingineachofthefirstthree

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