中國電力與經(jīng)濟增長關系的實證研究.pdf

1、華北電力大學（北京）碩士學位論文中國電力與經(jīng)濟增長關系的實證研究姓名：趙四化申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：技術經(jīng)濟及管理指導教師：何永秀20060301華北電力大學碩十學位論文摘要本論文基于標準Granger因果檢驗模型、綜合誤差矯正模型，先選取單因素模型對我國電力與經(jīng)濟增長的關系在總量、分產(chǎn)業(yè)、分部門、分地區(qū)、地區(qū)分產(chǎn)業(yè)進行系統(tǒng)的分析；然后采用多因素模型，引入電力投資、非電力投資、用電量、人力資本等多變量對電力和經(jīng)濟的關系做進一步分析，得出

2、了電力與經(jīng)濟因果關系的方向、影響程度的大小及長、短期關系，為我國在電力短缺和能源資源稀缺及新的電力市場條件下，做好電源和電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃與建設工作，做好產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整以促進中國經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供科學理論依據(jù)。關鍵詞：電力，經(jīng)濟，因果關系，誤差修正模型，向量誤差修正模型ABSTRACTTheGrangerCausality(GC)andtheErrorCorrectionModel(ECM)techniquesareappliedtoanalyz

3、etherelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandtheChineseeconomyThesinglefactormodelisselectedfirstandthesystematicanalysisismadeinthetotalquantityinseparateindustriesanddepartments，andindifferentindustrieswithseparater

4、egionsThenthemultifactorsmodelisadoptedbyintroducingthemultivariable，suchas，theelectricpowerinvestment，nonelectricpowerinvestment，electricityconsumptionandmanpowercapitaltomakefurtheranalysis，whichobtaineddirection，degre

5、e，theshort，andthelongtermrelationbetweentheelectricpowerandtheeconomyWithpowerandresourcesshortages，theaboveconclusionssupplythebasisinscienceandtheoryfortheregulationandconstructionofpowerandnetworks，andfortheindustryst

6、ructureadjustmenttoaccelerateeconomicsustainabledevelopmentofChineseeconomyZhaoSihua(TechnologicalEconomicsandManagement)DirectedbyprofHeYongxiuKEYWORDSelectricpower，economy，causality，errorcorrectionmodel，vectorerrorcorr