減免東盟關稅對中國宏觀經濟和產業(yè)的影響.pdf

1、之幽學校代號1Q墅2分類號@湘確犬事HUNANUNIVERSITY碩士學位論文學號嬰4251Q逝密級——減免東盟關稅對中國宏觀經濟和產業(yè)的影響學位申請人姓名李鏡池培養(yǎng)單位墨鎏皇塑曼堂墮導師姓名及職稱塹塑要塾堡：墊撾壘副墊塑學科專業(yè)國匾塞星堂研究方向CGE模型及應用——論文提交日期型墮生2旦墊旦AbstractChinaandASEANsignedthe’’FrameworkAgreementOilComprehensiveEconomi

2、cCooperation，betweenChinaandASEAN?！痑ndestabfishedthebasicframeworkofChinaASEANfreetradeareaon4”，November，2002Accordingtotheplan，bothChinaandthesixoriginalmembersofASEANwiUcarryoutzerotariffrateto8speciesofagriculturalgoo

3、dsin2006thefreetradeareabetweenChinaandthesixoriginalmembersofASEANwillcometruein2010andthefreetradeareabetweenChinaandthefoatnewmembersofASEANwillcometrsein2018HowtoevaluatetheeconomiceffectoftariffreductiontoASEANespec

4、iallytowardthesixoriginalmembersofASEAN，undertheChina—ASEANfreetrade#an，willbenefitUStomakedecisionsaboutthemacroeconomyandindustryeconomyThispaperwhichrelatedtheresidentconsumptionthatwastreatedasresidentialvariableinth

5、eoriginalChingemmodeltotheresidentincomeonthebasisoftheChingemmodelimprovedthelong—termmacroclosuresothattheeconomygrowthwillaffectresidentconsumption，makingtheresultsnlorereliableItanalyzestheshort—termcconomiceffectofc

6、arl“yingoutzerotariffrateto8speciesofagriculturalgoodsandthelongtermeconomiceffectsofcompletezerotariffratetowardthesixoriginalmembersofASEAN，onthebasisofChingemmodelTheresultsconcentrateonthemacrovariablesandtheprospect

7、sofindmtriesThemacrosideanalyzesthechangingtrendanditsreasonofGDPtrade，employmentandpricelevelTheindustrialsideanalyzesthechangingtrendanditsreasonofindustrialoutput，employmentandpricelevelinmanufacture，serviceandagricul

8、tureTheresearchshowsthatintheshort—termwhencuttingtmrifftowardthesixoriginalmembersofASEAN，Chinaseconomywillgrowtheimportandexportvolumewillincrease，thetradesurpluswillexpand，andtheoutputandexportofthemanufacturesectorsw

9、illincreaseInlongterm，China’Seco∞mywillincreaseharmoniouslythestructureofimportandexportgoodwillbeupgraded，serviceindustrywillbenefitwhilesomeagricultureandmanufactureindustrieswilldamage，andtheemploymentofmanufactureind