globaleconomiccrisis&workersrightsissuesforunions全球

1、Global Economic Crisis & Workers Rights: Issues for Unions全球經(jīng)濟危機與工人權(quán)利工會面臨的問題,What caused the global economic crisis?全球經(jīng)濟危機的根源,- Immediate causes直接原因 Fundamental roots of the crisis 危機的根源 What can we learn fr

2、om it? 給我們的教訓,Background of the crisis危機的背景,US Internet stocks crash in 2001-02 – to counter threat of recession, interest rate lowered to 1% in 2003 - easy money availability set off housing market boom & specul

3、ation 2001－2002年美國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫崩潰－為免于衰退，2003年利率下調(diào)至1％－輕易獲得貸款帶來房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫和投機Housing loans market was lucrative since these loans could be sold as securities (CDOs) to other banks & financial institutions, who in turn bundled t

4、hese CDOs into giant securities & sold it to others & so on – the value of these securities now runs into trillions (no one has any exact idea)由于貸款可作為證券銷售，房地產(chǎn)貸款市場利潤可觀，購買這些房地產(chǎn)證券的銀行和投資機構(gòu)將這些證券與大的證券捆綁打包賣給其他人，一環(huán)接一環(huán)，最

5、后大大抬高了這些證券的價格,Background of the crisis危機的背景,To cover risk of default on CDOs, buying institutions bought insurance (credit default swaps) – which generated huge profits for insuring companies - CDS market is said to b

6、e as big as $45 trillion – both CDOs & CDS market is not regulated by govt.為掩蓋CDO帶來的風險，收購這些CDO的機構(gòu)開始買保險，給保險公司帶來巨額利潤Crisis erupted when housing interest rates were raised in Aug 2007, housing loan defaults started

7、, housing market crash & CDOs became worthless… banks & insurance Cos. fail ? liquidity crunch ? real economy faces credit squeeze ? consumption, building activity & cash flows reduce ? US recession + globali

8、zation ? global troubles 隨著2007年8月提高住房貸款利率，危機爆發(fā)，引發(fā)房貸壞賬，房地產(chǎn)市場崩盤，CDO嚴重貶值,Impact on Asia對亞洲的影響,Outflow of capital from Asia (>100 billion $$$ in 2008) – what was its impact on Asian economies, stock markets &

9、currencies?資本從亞洲外流-對亞洲各個經(jīng)濟體、證券市場和貨幣的影響？Impact of recession in western markets on Asian production & economic growth西方市場衰退，影響亞洲產(chǎn)品和經(jīng)濟增長Impact of credit squeeze on domestic investments, industry & jobs 壓縮信貸對國

10、內(nèi)投資、工業(yè)和就業(yè)機會的影響Remittances, foreign aid, govt revenue go down匯款、外援資金、政府財政收入下滑,Impact on Asia對亞洲的影響,Workers pension funds - globally pension funds lost over 5 trillion $ between 2007 & 2008) – in some countries wh

11、ere pensions were privatised (ex in Latin America), they lost more工人養(yǎng)老基金-2007-2008年間全球養(yǎng)老金減少5萬億美元—在一些養(yǎng)老金私營化的國家，損失更加嚴重，如拉美。Implications for collective agreements & industrial relations (wage cuts, wage freeze, rise

12、 in casual unprotected work, higher work loads, forced unpaid leave, default on social security contributions, violations of FoA) 對集體合同和產(chǎn)業(yè)關系的影響（包括削減工資、臨時工作崗位增加、工作量增加、強迫不帶薪休假、欠付社會保險金、違反結(jié)社自由權(quán)等）,Possible Impact according t

13、o ILO國際勞工組織預測可能帶來的影響,Increase in unemployment by over 50 million in 20092009年，全球失業(yè)人數(shù)將增加5千萬About 200 million people into extreme poverty, majority in developing countries約2億人陷入赤貧，多在發(fā)展中國家Working poor (earning below

14、US$2 per person, per day) can go up to 1.4 billion (45% of the world’s employed)工作貧困人口將增加至14億，占全球總受雇人口的45%。Conditions of self employed & workers in informal employment much worse非正規(guī)部門自雇業(yè)者的狀況更加惡化,But - what are th

15、e root causes of the global economic crisis?但是這場全球經(jīng)濟危機的根源何在？,The root causes根源,Crisis of over production/over capacity & erosion of profitability (due to social inequalities that limit purchasing powers) - Need fo

16、r constantly increasing profits requires capital to keep looking for new markets – for cheap labour, cheap sources of raw materials, new markets to invest & sell 生產(chǎn)過剩或生產(chǎn)能力過剩危機（由于社會不公限制人們的購買力）-資本的逐利原則使得資本不斷尋找新的市場，以得到

17、廉價的勞動力、廉價的原材料和新的投資和銷售市場。lack of regulation of financial markets & institutions - ‘markets know the best’ philosophy – greed & speculation - de-regulation of economy & labour markets 金融市場缺乏監(jiān)管-“市場萬能”理論，導致貪婪和投

18、機行為失控-對經(jīng)濟和勞動力市場自由化lets look at post war economic history of the world ! 試看戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟發(fā)展歷史,The root causes根源,1945 -1970s : welfare state, keynesian economic policies, strong unions, rapid economic growth – this period ca

19、me to end in late 1970s due to - increased global competition, tremendous rise in productive capacities (Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Brazil), reducing profitability – on top of this process came oil price shocks1945

20、-1970S：福利國家、凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟政策、強工會、高速的經(jīng)濟增長，直到上世紀七十年代結(jié)束，主要原因在于全球競爭加劇、生產(chǎn)能力劇增、利潤降低，以及石油價格危機Post 1970s - Neo-liberal restructuring of economies - Reaganism & Thatcherism & structural adjustment (1980s) - redistribute incom

21、es towards the rich on the theory that rich invest & that will promote economic growth – have these policies worked?上世紀七十年代以后-新自由主義經(jīng)濟改組-里根主義、撒切爾主義和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整（八十年代）,…then came Globalization帶來全球化,Integration of China, Ind

22、ia, Brazil, Russia, & many other emerging market economies – as production centres, markets, sources of cheap labour, raw materials中國、印度、巴西、俄羅斯和其他新興市場經(jīng)濟體的一體化-作為生產(chǎn)中心、市場、廉價勞動力和原材料來源Almost 40-50% of the profits of US

23、 corporations come from their operations & sales abroad now, especially in China.美國企業(yè)40-50%的利潤來自中國在內(nèi)的海外市場But - Globalization increases the problem of over-capacity, which depresses prices & profits但是-全球化帶來了能力

24、過剩問題，造成價格和利潤削減,Rise of Financialization 金融本位主義出現(xiàn),Declining profits in industry & agriculture gave spurt to financial sector investments 工業(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)利潤下降刺激金融行業(yè)投資Financial sector creates profits but it doesn’t create new v

25、alue 金融行業(yè)創(chuàng)造利潤但不能創(chuàng)造新價值Growth of trading in derivatives (Value of credit derivatives market is estimated at more than 8 times the global GDP)金融衍生品貿(mào)易的出現(xiàn),Financialization of Economy經(jīng)濟的金融本位主義,Growth of (unregulated) priva

26、te equity capital/hedge funds and their operations in mfg sector - profits are made by selling-off assets of companies, downsizing, reducing investment in plant & equipment, shutting down mfg operations, outsourcing

27、production, share buy backs – all in the name of maximizing share-holder value 私人或無序證劵資本及操作-出售企業(yè)、裁員、減少企業(yè)設備投資、外包等帶來的利潤Even mfg companies play markets rather than produce (Ex GE, GM, Porsche) – even social security fun

28、ds MFG企業(yè)也開始做市場游戲，而不是進行生產(chǎn)-包括社會保險基金,Volatility of financial sector金融部門的不穩(wěn)定性,financial crises since capital markets were deregulated & liberalized in the 1980s自上世紀八十年代資本市場放開和自由化之后出現(xiàn)的金融危機- Japan in 1989-91日本- F

29、inland, Italy, UK, Sweden in 1992芬、意、英、瑞- Mexican financial crisis in 1994-95墨西哥- Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98亞洲金融危機- Russian Fin Crisis in 1998俄羅斯- Argentine Fin collapse in 2001-02阿根廷- US technology stoc

30、ks crash in 2000-01美國,So, what needs to be done?怎么辦？,What is Capital saying? Create of Global Financial Regulatory Coordinating Council (comprised of private banks, IMF, WB), … BUT emergency action should not provide th

31、e basis for a permanent larger role for the public in the international financial system - Institute of International Finance (financial sector’s global lobby organization)資本如何說？創(chuàng)立一個全球金融管理協(xié)調(diào)委員會（包括私有銀行、IMF、WB），但必須采取緊急行動，

32、為公共在國際金融體制中發(fā)揮更大作用奠定基礎。,Union view工會的觀點,End deregulation of employment market & ensure respect for fundamental rights of workers (FoA & CB rights)停止就業(yè)市場的無序化，保證工人的基本權(quán)利（包括結(jié)社自由和集體談判權(quán)）Ensure basic social security

33、 for all (effective social protection measures would have minimized ‘impact of economic crisis’ and assisted in improving effectiveness of stimulus/recovery packages)確保所有人享有基本社會保障（采取有效的社會保護措施，盡量減少經(jīng)濟危機的影響，提高刺激資金的有效性。）E

34、liminate tax havens, tax evasion, transfer pricing & currency transaction tax – to dampen speculation.應采取適當?shù)恼?，減少避稅天堂、逃稅、轉(zhuǎn)嫁價格和貨幣交易稅-打擊投機行為,Union view工會的觀點,What should be the objectives of International financial m

35、arkets ? expand the casino in more orderly fashion OR to channel resources into real economy? Greater regulation of financial markets so that these serve the objectives of real economy 國際金融市場的目標是什么？有序擴大這種“賭場經(jīng)濟”，還是增加實體經(jīng)

36、濟的資源？What else???其他,ILO Approach國際勞工組織的建議,Tripartite dialogue with social partners - should play a key role in addressing the economic crisis & developing policy responses at national level. 社會伙伴三方對話-解決危機，制定應對政策

37、Pre-condition for effective social dialogue: ??? 有效三方對話的前提條件 ILO promotes Global Jobs Pact 國際勞工組織提倡全球就業(yè)契約,ILO’s Global Jobs Pact全球就業(yè)契約,Framework for national & international policies aimed at: 國家和國際政策

38、框架的目標在于：A global economic recovery with job creation and the provision of social protection to working people and their families at its core;全球經(jīng)濟復蘇，增加就業(yè)，提供社會保護Stronger regulatory framework for the financial sector;加強

39、對金融業(yè)的監(jiān)管Efficient and well-regulated trade and markets;提高貿(mào)易和市場的效率和監(jiān)管,ILO’s Global Jobs Pact全球就業(yè)契約,Policy options identified include: 政策選擇可包括：Employment incentive public investment;刺激就業(yè)公共投資Special employment progra

40、mmes特殊就業(yè)計劃Support for enterprises支持企業(yè)發(fā)展Broadening social protection and minimum wages擴大社會保護，提高最低工資,Atleast one lesson for Asia給亞洲的警示,Over dependence on exports & western markets Almost 60% of final demand for

41、 Asian goods comes from developed countries. Exports account for about 47% of developing Asia’s output 對出口和西方市場的過于依賴：亞洲商品60%出口到發(fā)達國家。出口占亞洲發(fā)展中國家總量47%。For economic & social stability at home - Asian countries need

42、development & expansion of domestic markets – this implies Decent Work & respect for fundamental labour standards. 國內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟和社會穩(wěn)定—亞洲國家需發(fā)展國內(nèi)市場，促進體面勞動，遵守基本勞工標準。,Sources & further readings參考書目,Wall Street Meltdown

43、 Primer – by Walden Bello, published on Friday, Sept 26, 2008 by Foreign Policy in Focus Talking Points: Economic Meltdown – by Chuck Collins, Oct 27, 2008, Institute for Policy Studies (www.ips-dc.org)How bailouts Dwa

44、rf other global crisis spending – by Andersen, Cavanagh & Redman, Institute of Policy Studies, Nov 24, 2008Voices from the South – Impact of the financial crisis on developing countries – Institute of Development St

45、udies, Nov 2008 (www.ids.ac.uk/go/financial-crisis-impact)ILO Global Employment Trends Report 2009IUF (www.iuf.org): The G20 and After–Questions for Labour, 15 Dec 2008Source: Financial Times, Asia and the crisis: Unl

46、ucky numbers By David Pilling, February 9 2009 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/65599c38-f6e1-11dd-8a1f-0000779fd2ac.html RECOVERING FROM THE CRISIS: A GLOBAL JOBS PACT - http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/---r