未來氣候變化對(duì)中國牧區(qū)家畜地理分布的可能影響.pdf

1、南京信息工程大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文未來氣候變化對(duì)中國牧區(qū)家畜地理分布的可能影響姓名：于晉秋申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：應(yīng)用氣象學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：劉壽東楊再強(qiáng)20100501AbstractThegrasslandecosystemisoneoftheecosystemswhichreactmostfiercelytotheglobalclimatechangeGlobalclimatechangewilldirectlyOrindirectlylead

2、tothechangeofthelivestock’Sgeographicaldistributionbygrasslandecosystem’SchangeandalsowilldogreateffecttothelivestockfarmingproductiononthegrasslandTherefore，itissignificanttostudyandevaluatetheimpactofclimatechangeinfut

3、ureonthegeographicaldistributionsofherbivorouslivestockandtosetupeffectivestrategiesandcountermeasureswhichCanmakelivestockfarmingeconomyonthegrasslandadapttofutureclimatechangeThisstudyanalyzedtherelationshipsbetweengeo

4、graphicaldistributionoftheherbivorouslivestockandtheclimaticconditions，setuptheclimaticmodeloflivestockgeographicaldistributioninthepastoralofChinabyusingregressionmethodonbasisoftherelationship，calculatedtheresultbythem

5、odelandthedataofclimatechangeandanalyzedpossiblechanges’trendofthegeographicaldistributionofherbivorouslivestockunderSRESA2andB1scenarioseparatelyThekeystudyconclusionsareasfollows：(1)Therelationshipsbetweengeographicald

6、istributionofthekeyherbivorouslivestockandclimaticconditionsarecloseInNeimengguandXinjiangareas，cattle，horsesneedcoolandhumidclimaticconditions，donkeys，andcamelsandgoatshavestrongcapacitiestoadapttothehotanddryclimaticco

7、nditionsCamelsandgoatshavestrongcapacitiestoadapttothestrongsunlightSheepCansuittoawiderangeofecosystemand也eyhaveapoorcapacitytoadapttostronglightanddryconditionIntheQinghai—Tibetplateau，yaksneedwarm，humidclimaticconditi

8、ons，buttheyhaveapoorcapacitytoadapttostronglightconditionTheTibetangoatsandsheepcanadapttocold，droughtandhighlightconditions(2)Basedontheresultsofrelevantanalysis，itestablishedgeographicaldistributionoflivestockandclimat

9、emodelThemodelCanreflecttheelimaticlawofChina’SlivestockdistributioncorrectlyandsupplysomeevidencefortheproperretributionofherbivorouslivestockinChinaandthestudyontheinfluenceoffutureclimatechangeonthelivestockfarmingpro

10、duction(3)111ethesisutilizedtheresultsofgeographicaldistributionoflivestockandclimatemodel，analyzedpossiblechanges’trendofthegeographicaldistributionofherbivorouslivestockunderSRESB1scenarioTheresultsshowedthatunderthein

11、tensiveeffectoffutureclimatechanges，theproportionofcattle，donkeysandgoatswillrise，buttheproportionofhorses，camelsandsheetwilldecreaseinNeimengguandXinjiangareasAndtheproportionofyakswillbemore，buttheproportionoftheTibeta