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1、<p> 上海證券交易所A股和B股區(qū)別論文翻譯(中英文對(duì)照) </p><p> A. Data and Preliminary Statistics</p><p> The trading processes for A- (local) and B- (foreign) shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE) and
2、the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) are similar. Both exchanges run order-driven, automated markets. Neither exchange has designated market makers. Traders can only submit limit orders, which arrive at an electronic conso
3、lidated open limit order book (COLOB). An incoming order is automatically matched against the best standing limit order in the COLOB, according to the price-time priority princi</p><p> shares for Shanghai
4、foreign shares and 100 shares for Shenzhen foreign shares.</p><p> Our data consist of all time-stamped trades and quotes from January 2000</p><p> to November 2001 for all stocks traded on th
5、e SHSE and the SZSE.7 We apply</p><p> a number of filters to our data. First, we limit the sample to firms that traded</p><p> A- and B-shares throughout the sample period, thereby reducing t
6、he number</p><p> of firms from over 1,000 to 84. Second, we exclude eight firms, because only</p><p> for a few days we find nonzero volume in the B-share market. Third, for the</p>&l
7、t;p> remaining 76 firms, we remove days for which, for exogenous reasons, there</p><p> was no or very limited trading in either the A- or the B-share market.8 Fourth,</p><p> we remove st
8、ale quotes, which are easily recognized through zero depth. Fifth,</p><p> the first and last 15 minutes of each trading session are removed from the</p><p><b> sample.</b></p&g
9、t;<p><b> A.數(shù)據(jù)和初步統(tǒng)計(jì)</b></p><p> A股和B股在上海證券交易所和深圳證券交易所的交易程序都是類(lèi)似的。二者的交易都是以買(mǎi)賣(mài)盤(pán)帶動(dòng),且都使用電腦進(jìn)行自動(dòng)化交易。二者都沒(méi)有指定的做市商。而且,交易者只能通過(guò)一個(gè)開(kāi)放的電子綜合限價(jià)書(shū)(COLOB)來(lái)提交限價(jià)購(gòu)買(mǎi)委托書(shū)。按照時(shí)間和價(jià)格優(yōu)先的原則,買(mǎi)入委托單會(huì)自動(dòng)和COLOB中最佳的限價(jià)單進(jìn)行匹配。如果不
10、能匹配,則會(huì)將買(mǎi)入委托單加入到COLOB中。</p><p> 并不存在大宗交易系統(tǒng)允許流動(dòng)交易者在上層市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行大宗交易。場(chǎng)外交易和知情交易都是被禁止的,但檢測(cè)系統(tǒng)并不十分嚴(yán)格。上交所和深交所的最低A股交易額均為100股,但上交所最低B股交易額為1000股,深交所為100股。我們的數(shù)據(jù)包含了從2000年1月份到2001年11月份之間深交所和上交所包含具體時(shí)間的交易和報(bào)價(jià)。我們對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了過(guò)濾。首先,我們將樣本數(shù)
11、據(jù)限制為在此時(shí)間內(nèi)在A股和B股市場(chǎng)都有交易發(fā)生的公司,這樣一來(lái)將公司數(shù)目由1000縮減為84。其次,我們排除了8家公司,因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)贐股市場(chǎng)的只進(jìn)行了短短數(shù)天的交易。再次,對(duì)于剩余的76家公司,我們將它們因?yàn)橥獠吭?,在A股或者B股市場(chǎng)交易量都非常小的日期排除在外。第四,我們將陳舊報(bào)價(jià)排除在外,它們很容易識(shí)別,因?yàn)樯疃葹?。第五,樣本中還排除了每個(gè)交易時(shí)段最初的15分鐘和最后15分鐘的交易數(shù)據(jù)。</p><p>
12、 Table I provides trading statistics for the A- and B-shares from January to</p><p> December 2000, a period during which both markets were fully segmented.</p><p> The table presents the cros
13、s-sectional mean, standard deviation, minimum,</p><p> and maximum based on the 76 sample stocks. For comparison, the trade and</p><p> quote data for the B-shares (in Hong Kong dollars for SZ
14、SE and in U.S. dollars</p><p> for the SHSE) are converted to yuan using the (fixed) official exchange rate</p><p> for the sample period. The average trade price in this period is 14.29 yuan&
15、lt;/p><p> ($1.73) for A-shares and 3.10 yuan ($0.37) for B-shares. This corresponds to an</p><p> average B-share discount of 72%, which is in line with previous evidence (see,</p><p&
16、gt; e.g., Bailey et al. (1999)).</p><p> 表I 提供了A股和B股在2000年1月至12月這一區(qū)間內(nèi)的交易數(shù)據(jù)。在此期間內(nèi),兩股市場(chǎng)是完全分隔開(kāi)的。表中列出了76支股票的交叉截面平均值,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差和最大和最小交易量。為了便于比較,B股的報(bào)價(jià)和交易數(shù)據(jù)(深交所以港幣計(jì)算,上交所以美元計(jì)算)被轉(zhuǎn)換成了人民幣計(jì)算,匯率所采用的是樣本時(shí)間內(nèi)的(固定)官方匯率。樣本時(shí)間內(nèi)A股的平均交
17、易價(jià)格為14.29元(1.73美元),B股的平均交易價(jià)格為3.10元(0.37美元)。這相當(dāng)于B股的平均折價(jià)率為72%,與前面的證據(jù)一致(詳見(jiàn)Bailey 等人,(1999))。</p><p> In terms of volume, the B-share market is about half the size of the A-share</p><p> market—an
18、 average of 854,000 versus 1,684,000 shares per day. The A-share</p><p> market is more actively traded, as expected. Furthermore, we find that while</p><p> the trading frequency is higher in
19、 the A-share market, the transaction size</p><p> is lower. This highlights the importance of controlling for trade size in our</p><p> spread decomposition analysis. Although the average quot
20、ed spread is 0.027</p><p> yuan for A-shares and 0.035 yuan for B-shares, this difference is not significant</p><p> at conventional confidence levels. The effective spreads in the two markets
21、 are</p><p> both equal to 0.035 yuan.</p><p> 關(guān)于交易量,B股平均每天的交易量為A股市場(chǎng)的一半左右,B股平均每天的交易量為854,000,而A股為1,684,000。正如人們預(yù)料的那樣,A股市場(chǎng)的交易更加頻繁。但是,我們發(fā)現(xiàn),盡管A股市場(chǎng)的交易較為頻繁,它的交易規(guī)模反而比B股市場(chǎng)要小。這突出體現(xiàn)了我們?cè)趦r(jià)差分解分析中控制交易規(guī)模的重要
22、性。盡管A股和B股的平均報(bào)價(jià)差距分別為0.027元和0.035元,但這個(gè)差距在傳統(tǒng)的置信水平上并不明顯。兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的有效價(jià)差都等于0.035元。</p><p> B. Preliminary Analysis of Information Asymmetry Measures</p><p> In this subsection, we estimate the price impa
23、ct coefficients (PI), adverse</p><p> selection components (AS), and the probability of informed trading (PIN)</p><p> measures, and we study whether these information asymmetry measures agree
24、,</p><p> cross-sectionally, as to which securities exhibit the highest information asymmetry.</p><p> We then relate these measures to the foreign share discount.</p><p> In pre
25、paring the data for the estimation of PI and AS, we follow Glosten and</p><p> Harris (1988) and truncate the trade size to 100,000 shares to avoid giving too</p><p> much weight to large trad
26、es. The median truncation frequency is 0.28% and</p><p> 1.55% for the A- and B-share market, respectively. This is most likely the result</p><p> of more institutional investors who trade in
27、larger sizes, in the B-share market.</p><p> We also truncate the trade size to 200,000 and 400,000 shares and find that</p><p> the results are generally similar.</p><p> B.初步分析
28、對(duì)信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的測(cè)量結(jié)果</p><p> 在本小節(jié)中,我們估算了價(jià)格沖擊系數(shù)(PI),逆向選擇成分(AS)以及知情交易措施(PIN)的可能性,我們同時(shí)研究了是否這些信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的測(cè)量結(jié)果在交叉截面上是否同展示出最強(qiáng)信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)現(xiàn)象的股票相符合。然后,我們將這些措施同外資股的折價(jià)進(jìn)行了關(guān)聯(lián)。</p><p> 在準(zhǔn)備用于估算價(jià)格沖擊系數(shù)和逆向選擇成分的數(shù)據(jù)時(shí),我們效仿了Glosten和Har
29、ris(1988),將交易規(guī)模限制在10萬(wàn)股,以避免大宗交易所占比重過(guò)多。A股市場(chǎng)和B股市場(chǎng)的中位數(shù)階段頻率分別為0.28%和1.55%。這很可能是由于B股市場(chǎng)有組織的集體投資者進(jìn)行較大規(guī)模交易造成的結(jié)果。我們也試著將交易規(guī)模分別限制為20萬(wàn)股和40萬(wàn)股,所得到的結(jié)果總體上相似。</p><p> Panel A of Table II contains estimates of the price impac
30、t coefficients for the</p><p> 76 A- and B-shares. The mean estimates of γ and φ are 9.66 × 10?7 yuan per</p><p> share and 8.58 × 10?3 yuan for the A-share market, and 2.61 × 1
31、0?7 and 6.35</p><p> × 10?3 for the B-share market. Therefore, although A-share volume is higher</p><p> than B-share volume (see Table I), A-share depth is actually lower than B-share<
32、;/p><p> depth. This result is interesting as it shows that one should not equate liquidity</p><p> with trading volume. Thus, consistent with our model in Section II, even without</p><
33、;p> trading volume consideration, the information asymmetry between A- and</p><p> B-share markets could cause their market depths to be different. This motivates</p><p> why in subsequent
34、 regression analyses we test the extent to which our information</p><p> asymmetry measures explain the B-share discount after controlling for</p><p> trading activity.</p><p> 表
35、II中的A部分包含了我們對(duì)于76支A,B股價(jià)格沖擊系數(shù)的估算。γ 和 φ的憑估計(jì)值為9.66 × 10?7元每股,A股市場(chǎng)為8.58 × 10?3元,B股市場(chǎng)為2.61× 10?7 and 6.35× 10?3元。因此,盡管A股的交易量大于B股(見(jiàn)表I),A股的深度其實(shí)比B股要低。這個(gè)結(jié)果很有趣,因?yàn)樗砻鞑豢蓪⒘鲃?dòng)性與交易規(guī)模等同起來(lái)。因此,像我們?cè)诘诙糠痔岢龅哪P鸵粯樱词共豢紤]交易規(guī)模,A
36、股市場(chǎng)和B股市場(chǎng)信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)程度的差異也會(huì)導(dǎo)致其市場(chǎng)深度的不同。這是為什么在控制交易活動(dòng)之后,我們對(duì)信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的測(cè)量結(jié)果解釋B股折價(jià)率的程度進(jìn)行了回歸分析測(cè)試。</p><p> Panel B of Table II contains cross-sectional statistics on the fixed and variable</p><p> adverse select
37、ion component (AS) of the spread and on gross profit for the 76</p><p> A- and B-shares. The AS component coefficients, z0 and z1, are significant, and</p><p> carry the expected sign for all
38、of the 76 securities in the A-share market and</p><p> for almost all (66 and 61, respectively) of the securities in the B-share market.</p><p> This evidence is consistent with previous liter
39、ature in that the cost of adverse</p><p> selection is a significant component of the spread that increases with the size</p><p> of the transaction. The fixed gross profit coefficients, c0, a
40、re significant, and</p><p> carry the expected sign for all of the securities in the A-share market and for 67</p><p> of the securities in the B-share market. </p><p> 表II中的B部分包
41、含了76支股票在價(jià)差的逆向選擇成分固定及可變的情況下交叉截面數(shù)據(jù),同時(shí)也包含了76支股票的毛利潤(rùn)的交叉截面數(shù)據(jù)。逆向選擇成分系數(shù),z0 和z1非常重要,它們包含了人們對(duì)于A股市場(chǎng)76支股票的預(yù)期和B股市場(chǎng)大部分股票(分別為66和61)的預(yù)期。先前文獻(xiàn)中指出逆向選擇的花費(fèi)是同交易規(guī)模一起增長(zhǎng)的價(jià)差的重要組成部分,此處的數(shù)據(jù)與此論斷一致。固定毛利系數(shù),c0也很重要,它反映了人們對(duì)于A股所有股票的預(yù)期和對(duì)于B股市場(chǎng)中67支股票的預(yù)期。 <
42、;/p><p> The variable gross profit coefficients, c1, are significant for 55 of the securities in the A-share market and for only 4of the securities in the B-share market. The last column in Panel B reports the
43、</p><p> AS component for a median-sized trade. Consistent with the PI estimate, we</p><p> find that the average AS component is larger in the A-share market than in the</p><p>
44、 B-share market, with values of 56.4 × 10?4 and 46.8 × 10?4 yuan, respectively.</p><p> A problem in estimating PI and the AS component for the two markets is</p><p> that there is a
45、 lower trade frequency for B-shares as compared to A-shares. In</p><p> addition to estimating the AS component based on trade-by-trade data, we also</p><p> estimate based on fixed-length int
46、ervals. For instance, in the case of 15 minutes,</p><p> price change from t – 1 to t is measured as the price change over the 15-minute</p><p> interval, V(t) is defined as the absolute value
47、 of net order flow in the 15-minute</p><p> interval t, and Q(t) is defined as 1 or –1 depending on whether the net order</p><p> flow is positive or negative in the 15-minute interval t. In g
48、eneral, we find</p><p> that using alternative estimates of PI and the AS component in our subsequent</p><p> regression analyses produces qualitatively similar results.</p><p>
49、可變毛利系數(shù),c1,能夠反映A股中的55支股票,但僅對(duì)B股市場(chǎng)中的4支股票具有意義。B部分中的最后一欄反映了中等規(guī)模交易中的逆向選擇成分。與我們對(duì)于PI的估算相一致,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)A股市場(chǎng)的平均逆向選擇成分比B股市場(chǎng)要大,分別為56.4 × 10?4 元和 46.8 × 10?4元。在估算A股市場(chǎng)和B股市場(chǎng)價(jià)格沖擊系數(shù)和逆向選擇成分時(shí),我們遇到的一個(gè)問(wèn)題是B股市場(chǎng)的交易頻率要低于A股市場(chǎng)。除了在在逐筆交易數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上估算逆
50、向選擇成分之外,我們也在固定時(shí)間段的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)其進(jìn)行了估算。例如,以15分鐘為一個(gè)時(shí)間段,t1到t指的是價(jià)格在這15分鐘內(nèi)發(fā)生的變化,V(t)為15分鐘內(nèi)訂單凈流量的絕對(duì)值,Q(t)根據(jù)凈流量值的正負(fù)分別定義為1或-1??傮w來(lái)說(shuō),我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在后續(xù)的回歸分析中將這些數(shù)值代入公式,最終得到的結(jié)果在本質(zhì)上是相似的。</p><p> Panel C of Table II presents cross-sectional
51、 statistics on the parameter estimates of the PIN model. Again, we find considerable evidence for privately</p><p> informed traders in the A-share market, as the average arrival rate of these</p>&l
52、t;p> types of traders, μ, is 0.38, which is of the same level of magnitude as the arrival</p><p> rates of uninformed buyers (0.44) and sellers (0.51). The arrival rate of</p><p> informed
53、 traders in the B-share market is lower at 0.11, and again is of the</p><p> same level of magnitude as the arrival rates of uninformed buyers (0.06) and</p><p> sellers (0.07) in this market.
54、 The probability of an information event on a specific</p><p> day, α, is higher in the A-share market than in the B-share market, with</p><p> rates of 0.36 versus 0.31, respectively. This is
55、 consistent with the existence of</p><p> more information in the A-share market. However, the average level of the PIN</p><p> measure is higher in the B-share market, as this market exhibits
56、 a relatively</p><p> low number of uninformed trades. All parameters are significant for the majority</p><p> of the securities except for the parameter δ, which is the probability of the<
57、/p><p> news being bad news.</p><p> 表II中的C部分提供了PIN模型參數(shù)估計(jì)的交叉截面統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。我們?cè)僖淮伟l(fā)現(xiàn)A股中存在知情交易商的證據(jù),此類(lèi)交易商的平均達(dá)到率, μ,為0.38這與非知情交易商(0.44)和賣(mài)方(0,51)的到達(dá)率在數(shù)值上較為接近。而在B股市場(chǎng),知情交易商的平均到達(dá)率較低,為0.11,這同B股市場(chǎng)非知情交易商(0.06)和賣(mài)方(0.
58、07)的數(shù)值也是比較接近的。A股市場(chǎng)中某天的知情交易發(fā)生率,α,0.36也要高于B股市場(chǎng)的0.31。這同A股市場(chǎng)存在較多內(nèi)幕操作是相符合的。然而,B股市場(chǎng)的PIN測(cè)量結(jié)果的平均水平要高于A股市場(chǎng),因?yàn)锽股市場(chǎng)中非知情交易的數(shù)目相對(duì)較少。所有參數(shù)中,除了代表了壞消息出現(xiàn)頻率的δ之外,其他參數(shù)同大多數(shù)股票的表現(xiàn)都相吻合。</p><p> We compare our measures of information
59、 asymmetry by verifying whether</p><p> they agree cross-sectionally as to which securities exhibit the most information</p><p> asymmetry. Figure 4 presents scatterplots of the AS component o
60、f the spread</p><p> (for a median-sized trade) against PI and the PIN for both the A- and B-share</p><p> markets. These plots suggest a stronger relationship between the measures</p>
61、<p> in the A-share market, with correlations of 89% and 59%, respectively. The</p><p> relationship in the B-share market is much weaker.</p><p> 我們通過(guò)驗(yàn)證信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)性的不同方面的測(cè)量結(jié)果是否能夠在交叉橫截面上同信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)
62、性最強(qiáng)的股票相吻合來(lái)對(duì)不同的測(cè)量方面進(jìn)行比較。圖4采用散布式繪圖法描繪了A股和B股市場(chǎng)上差價(jià)的逆向選擇成分相對(duì)于價(jià)格沖擊和PIN的關(guān)系。這些圖形表明,A股市場(chǎng)中測(cè)量結(jié)果之間的關(guān)系較B股市場(chǎng)更強(qiáng),A,B股市場(chǎng)中的相關(guān)性分別為89%和59%,B股市場(chǎng)中的相關(guān)性明顯弱很多。</p><p> Finally, scatterplot analysis reveals that the B-share discount
63、 appears to be</p><p> explained by the proposed information asymmetry measures. Figure 5 plots</p><p> foreign share discounts against the differentials of the information asymmetry</p>
64、<p> measures in the A-share market relative to the B-share market, as measured</p><p> by PI, the AS component, or the PIN. For all measures, we find that stocks</p><p> with relative
65、ly higher information asymmetry appear to command higher Bshare</p><p> discounts. The correlations between the three information asymmetry</p><p> measures and the discounts are 66% for PI, 6
66、7% for AS, and 28% for PIN, and</p><p> are statistically significant at either the 1% or 5% level.</p><p> 最終,散布式分析表明B股市場(chǎng)折價(jià)率的變化可以用信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的測(cè)量進(jìn)行解釋。圖5反映了A股市場(chǎng)和B股市場(chǎng)相比較的情況下,外股折價(jià)率同信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)測(cè)量結(jié)果差別(PI, 逆向選擇
67、成分,和PIN)之間的關(guān)系。對(duì)于所有的測(cè)量方面而言,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)程度較高的股票其B股的折價(jià)越高。三種信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的測(cè)量方面和折價(jià)率的相關(guān)性分別為PI, 66%,AS 67%, PIN 28%, 此結(jié)果在1%和5%的層面的數(shù)據(jù)都具有意義。</p><p> D. Changes After the B-Share Market Was Opened Up to Local Investors</p>
68、;<p> In March 2001, regulators opened the B-share market to domestic investors.</p><p> We use this regulatory change event to further test our information asymmetry</p><p> hypothesi
69、s in two ways. First, we expect B-share discounts to shrink or vanish</p><p> and, more important, our information asymmetry measures to increase for the</p><p> B-share market after this even
70、t, because better-informed domestic investors are</p><p> now allowed to participate in this market. Second, we repeat our cross-sectional</p><p> regressions for the new sample period as a ro
71、bustness test.We analyze the same</p><p> 76 stocks for the sample period of April to November 2001.</p><p> D.B股市場(chǎng)向國(guó)內(nèi)投資者開(kāi)放之后的變化</p><p> 2001年3月,管理者向國(guó)內(nèi)投資者開(kāi)放了B股市場(chǎng)。我們利用這個(gè)管理上的變化進(jìn)一步在
72、兩方面測(cè)試了我們關(guān)于信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的假設(shè)。首先,我們預(yù)期到B股折價(jià)率將降低,或者消失,更重要的是,我們預(yù)期此次時(shí)間后,我們對(duì)于B股市場(chǎng)信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的測(cè)量結(jié)果將上漲,即B股市場(chǎng)的信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)現(xiàn)象將增多,因?yàn)橛休^好信息來(lái)源的國(guó)內(nèi)投資者開(kāi)始涌入了B股市場(chǎng)。第二,我們對(duì)一個(gè)新的樣本時(shí)段再次進(jìn)行了截面回歸分析,并以此作為穩(wěn)健性的測(cè)試。我們分析了從2001年4月至11月這一時(shí)間段內(nèi)相同的76支股票。</p><p> We fin
73、d that, consistent with our hypothesis, the discount levels decrease</p><p> from an average of 72% to 43%, and the level of informed trading in the Bshare</p><p> market increases compared wi
74、th the model estimates for the preevent</p><p> period. The main reason for this gradual, rather than sudden, decline in discounts</p><p> is the lack of foreign currency among domestic invest
75、ors. Panel A in</p><p> Table V presents pre- and postentry estimates of PI, and shows that PI almost</p><p> doubles (+81%) for the B-share market from 2.6 preentry to 4.7 postentry. This<
76、/p><p> increase is larger than the 21% increase in the A-share market and is therefore</p><p> consistent with the arrival of better-informed domestic investors in the</p><p> B-sh
77、are market. Panel B confirms these results based on the AS component of</p><p> the spread. For both the fixed (z0) and the variable (z1) AS component, we find</p><p> considerable increases i
78、n the B-share market of 52% and 101%, respectively,</p><p> after domestic investors were allowed to enter into this market. </p><p> 我們發(fā)現(xiàn),同我們的假設(shè)相一致,B股市場(chǎng)同未開(kāi)放之前相比較,折價(jià)水平由原來(lái)的72%降至43%,知情交易的數(shù)目有所上漲。
79、折價(jià)水平緩慢而非突然降低的主要原因在于國(guó)內(nèi)投資者手中外幣的缺乏。表格V中的A部分展示了B股開(kāi)放前和開(kāi)放后PI的估計(jì)值,可以發(fā)現(xiàn),PI值幾乎翻倍(增長(zhǎng)了81%),由開(kāi)放前的2.6增長(zhǎng)到了4.6。 與之相比,A股市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)值則要小的多,僅為21%。這個(gè)結(jié)果同B股市場(chǎng)有大量知情交易者涌入是相吻合的。B部分是基于逆向選擇成分的價(jià)差,它也正是了這些結(jié)果。國(guó)內(nèi)投資者允許進(jìn)入B古市場(chǎng)之后,對(duì)于B股市場(chǎng)而言,固定逆向選擇成分(z0)和可變逆向選擇成分(
80、z1)都有較大的增長(zhǎng),漲幅分別為52%和102%。</p><p> We find that</p><p> the AS component for median-sized trades increases by 44% from 46.8 cents to</p><p> 67.4 cents. This increase is again lar
81、ger than the increase in the A-share market</p><p> and thus consistent with the PI findings. Panel C of Table V reveals that</p><p> the arrival rate of informed investors in the B-share mark
82、et increases by 164%.</p><p> This rate actually decreases by 29% in the A-share market. Further evidence</p><p> of increased information in the B-share market is that the probability of an&l
83、t;/p><p> information event increases from 0.31 to 0.42, whereas in the A-share market,</p><p> the probability increases only from 0.36 to 0.38. Nevertheless, the level of the</p><p&g
84、t; PIN measure does not change much in either market, because the changes in the arrival rate of uninformed traders roughly match those of informed</p><p><b> traders.</b></p><p>
85、 The regressions of the foreign share discount on the information asymmetry</p><p> measures and controls in the postevent period are consistent with earlier findings.</p><p> Table VI present
86、s the results for PI, AS, and PIN including and excluding</p><p> the control variables. In all of the regressions, the information asymmetry measures</p><p> are significantly positive, with
87、the PI and AS component measures explaining</p><p> 61% and 71% of the variation in foreign share discounts, respectively.</p><p> 我們發(fā)現(xiàn),中等規(guī)模交易的逆向選擇成分由原來(lái)的46.8分增長(zhǎng)到了67.4分,漲幅為44%。這個(gè)漲幅也大于A股市場(chǎng)相應(yīng)的漲幅,
88、因此同PI變化相一致。表格V中的C部分反映了B股市場(chǎng)中,知情投資者的到達(dá)率增長(zhǎng)了164%,而在A股市場(chǎng),該數(shù)值減少了29%。更進(jìn)一步的證據(jù)是,B股市場(chǎng)知情交易的可能性由0.31增長(zhǎng)到0.42,而A股市場(chǎng)僅僅有0.36增長(zhǎng)到了9.38。盡管如此,PIN的測(cè)量值在兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)都沒(méi)有發(fā)生很大的變化,因?yàn)橹榻灰渍叩牡竭_(dá)率同非知情交易者的到達(dá)率在變化上基本保持了一致。</p><p> 在B股市場(chǎng)開(kāi)放之前,用測(cè)量信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)
89、的方式對(duì)外股折價(jià)進(jìn)行回歸分析所得到的結(jié)果同先前的發(fā)現(xiàn)一致。表6展示了PI,AS和PIN的測(cè)量結(jié)果,并排除了管制因素。在所有的分析中,信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)測(cè)量值的相關(guān)性都為正,PI和逆向選擇成分測(cè)量值分別能夠解釋61%和71%的B股市場(chǎng)折價(jià)的變化。</p><p> E. Discussion and Interpretation of the Results</p><p> Overall,
90、our results provide strong evidence that the information asymmetry</p><p> measures, especially the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread, are</p><p> far more important than any o
91、f the control variables in explaining the crosssectional</p><p> variation in B-share discounts. Our interpretation is that the information</p><p> asymmetry measures reflect the extent of pri
92、vate information available</p><p> to domestic investors. When there is a higher degree of information asymmetry,</p><p> as measured by a higher price impact coefficient or adverse selection
93、component</p><p> in the A-share market than in the B-share market, domestic investors are</p><p> more willing to pay a higher price than foreign investors, resulting in B-share</p>&l
94、t;p> discounts. However, several issues are worthy of discussion.</p><p> E.對(duì)結(jié)果的討論和解讀</p><p> 總體而言,我們的結(jié)果有力的證明了對(duì)于信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)性的測(cè)量,尤其是對(duì)于逆向選擇成分和買(mǎi)賣(mài)差價(jià)的測(cè)量,在解釋B股折價(jià)的交叉截面變化時(shí),比任何控制變量都更重要。我們的解釋是,信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的測(cè)量,反映
95、了國(guó)內(nèi)投資者能夠得到內(nèi)部消息的程度。當(dāng)信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)程度越高時(shí),(通常的表現(xiàn)形式為A股市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格沖擊系數(shù)和逆向選擇成分比B股市場(chǎng)要高),國(guó)內(nèi)投資者越愿意付出比國(guó)外投資者更高的價(jià)格,由此導(dǎo)致B股折價(jià)的產(chǎn)生。然而,尚有一些問(wèn)題值得討論。</p><p> The first issue concerns the type of private information to which we refer. It</
96、p><p> is widely believed that Chinese investors trade on rumors rather than fundamentals.</p><p> Furthermore, share manipulation is widespread, pushing prices away</p><p> from th
97、e intrinsic value for a relatively long time period. Mei et al. (2003) argue</p><p> that A-share prices are a reflection of speculative bubbles. Thus, it is not clear</p><p> whether our info
98、rmation asymmetry measures reflect fundamental news. Although</p><p> we agree with this view of the speculative behavior of investors, we do</p><p> not think that it should disqualify our pr
99、ice impact coefficient or adverse selection</p><p> component from being effective measures of information asymmetry. </p><p> 第一個(gè)問(wèn)題是關(guān)于我們所指的內(nèi)部消息的類(lèi)型。人們廣泛相信,中國(guó)投資者在進(jìn)行投資時(shí)更多的相信流言,而非投資的一些基本原則。而且,股票市
100、場(chǎng)的操縱廣泛存在,在相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)使股票的價(jià)格背離了其本身的價(jià)值。Mei等人(2003)稱(chēng)A股的價(jià)格是投機(jī)泡沫的反映。因此,我們并不清楚是否我們對(duì)于信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)現(xiàn)象的測(cè)量反映了最為基礎(chǔ)的消息,而不是那些經(jīng)過(guò)層層操縱之后的。盡管我們也承認(rèn)投機(jī)者的存在,但并不認(rèn)為投機(jī)者的存在會(huì)導(dǎo)致我們的價(jià)格沖擊系數(shù)和逆向選擇成分在測(cè)量信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)性時(shí)失去其原有的效果。</p><p><b> The</b>
101、</p><p> difference between the adverse selection component and the gross profit component</p><p> of the bid-ask spread is that the adverse selection component reflects</p><p>
102、a permanent price change, rather a temporary price change. Therefore, even</p><p> for long-term investors, the adverse selection component is always important,</p><p> regardless of whether i
103、t reflects fundamental news or rumors. Furthermore,</p><p> Chan, Menkveld, and Yang (2007) show that A-share quote revision has predictive</p><p> ability for B-share quote revision, but not
104、vice versa. Therefore, even</p><p> though A-share prices may not necessarily reflect fundamentals, it appears</p><p> that foreign investors also react to the A-share price movement.</p>
105、;<p> 逆向選擇成分和買(mǎi)賣(mài)價(jià)差之中的毛利成分之間的差別在于,逆向選擇成分反映了長(zhǎng)久的價(jià)格變化,而非短暫的就愛(ài)個(gè)變化。因此,即使是對(duì)于長(zhǎng)期投資者而言,逆向選擇成分也是非常重要的,不論它反映的究竟是真實(shí)的消息,抑或是謠言。而且,Chan,Menkveld 和Yang(2007)指出,A股報(bào)價(jià)的修正幅度能夠預(yù)測(cè)B股的報(bào)價(jià)修正幅度,但反之則不成立。因此,盡管A股價(jià)格可能并不能反映真實(shí)的消息,外國(guó)投資者同樣會(huì)依據(jù)A股的價(jià)格變動(dòng)
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