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1、<p> 1.1 The early warning system of flood disasters significance</p><p> As we all know, China is extremely frequent flood disasters hit countries, annual flood season flash floods triggered by rainf
2、all, mudslides, landslides have caused heavy casualties and property losses, not only seriously threaten the lives of the masses, but the majority of seriously restricting the mountain hill areas of economic and social d
3、evelopment and the people become rich, of building a moderately prosperous society goals.</p><p> According to statistics from 1950 to 1990, China's flood death toll from a total of 22.5 million, of whi
4、ch the number of deaths hilly 15.2 million, 67.4% of total deaths, average annual deaths 3707 people. Every year from 1992 to 1998 the number of deaths due to flash floods disaster is about 1900 ~ 3700 people, accounting
5、 for about flood deaths 62% ~ 69%; flood disasters from 1999 to 2002 the number of deaths dropped to 1,100 ~ 1,400 people, but accounting for Flood death toll had risen to 65% </p><p> Flood disasters over
6、a broad area, with significant multiple, sudden and strong disorder destructive, defense is very difficult. And China's heavy rain area, flash floods disaster-prone areas and populated areas overlap, more so the loss
7、es caused by flash floods layers increased.</p><p> Statistics show that more than 2100 county-level administrative region of China, there are more than 1,500 distribution in Mountainous Areas by the flash
8、floods, mudslides, landslides threaten a population of 7,400 people.</p><p> September 4, 2004, Premier Wen Jiabao instructed: "torrential disasters, causing huge losses, disaster prevention and disast
9、er reduction has become a prominent issue. Must make the fight against flood disasters in an important position to conscientiously sum up experiences and lessons of flash floods characteristics and patterns of occurrence
10、, adopt comprehensive prevention and control measures to minimize losses caused by disasters. "</p><p> In 2004, led by the Ministry of Water Resources, in conjunction with Ministry of Land Resources,
11、China Meteorological Administration and other relevant departments, has established a national leading group of mountain flood control planning to begin preparation of the "national mountain flood prevention plan.&q
12、uot; October 2006, "National Disaster Prevention Planning, flash report" through the review to study and explore the characteristics of flood disasters occur and laws, scientific and reasonable</p><p
13、> 1.2 Research Methods mountain flood warning system</p><p> 1.2.1 The main features of flood disasters</p><p> 1, sudden strong</p><p> Torrential rain caused by the disaste
14、rs, the storm intensity, coupled with the specific geological, geomorphological and other surface conditions, leading to flash floods ferocious. Metamorphic massif in Henan Province, severely weathered limestone and gran
15、ite mountains composed of mostly easy to erosion, is conducive to landslides, avalanches and debris flow formation; hilly steep slopes and deep valleys, elevation ups and downs, fast runoff . Because many rivers in Henan
16、 Province, a large grad</p><p> 2, ferocious, destructive strength</p><p> Since the end of steep mountain river, short process, flow speed, the impact of strong, destructive big, mining, tran
17、sport and harm life and property are very serious. Its outstanding performance is a strong destructive causing serious casualties and infrastructure damage, recovery is very difficult, or even destructive. July 2003 Huai
18、 River in early heavy rains in the southern mountains, bamboo round rural North County mall war village, burst in the July 10 debris flow, flow rate 12.3 m / s, a </p><p> 3, the seasonal high frequency<
19、/p><p> Precipitation is induced by flash floods, landslides, mudslides main reason for higher rainfall year in geological disasters have significantly higher frequency. 4 September flood season, especially in
20、 the main flood season 6 to 8 months, is a mountain flood-prone period. In the same basin, may occur even in the same year several flood disasters. According to statistics of Hunan Province, Hunan province flash flood di
21、sasters occurred in about 95% of flood disasters throughout the year, of which </p><p> 4, regional apparent strong-prone</p><p> Flash floods occurred mainly in the mountainous, hilly and mou
22、nd, especially in the center of the storm area, storm impact when the easy formation of surface runoff, leading to flash floods, scour disaster.</p><p> 1.2.2 The causes of flood disasters</p><p&
23、gt; The flood disaster in the main stream and weather, topography and human factors and so on. Sudden flooding rain is the main factor of flood disasters caused by heavy rain causes of the formation is the main reason f
24、or the flood disaster, coupled with human factors, the impact of topography, but also contributed to the formation of flood disasters.</p><p> 1, the precipitation is caused by the most direct cause of floo
25、d disasters</p><p> Uneven distribution of rainfall during the year, the annual variation and other characteristics, due to different conditions produce rain, flood with strength, very vulnerable to flood d
26、isasters. From the statistics of view of flood disasters, long-duration high-intensity rainfall and storm surge cause flash floods, slope saturated soil moisture, soil softening, strength weakening, combined with rain or
27、 rock fractures along faults into the ground, leading to the collapse slip, creep, shallow lan</p><p> 2, the terrain is the basis of factors that lead to flood disasters</p><p> Steep topogra
28、phy as floods, mudslides, landslides provides a powerful potential, so that rainfall generated runoff down slope down to the valley together, quickly forming a strong peak flow, and thus trigger the occurrence of debris
29、flow and landslides.</p><p> 3, human activities are intensifying an important factor in flood disasters occurred</p><p> Good ground cover can play a solid role in soil water conservation, pr
30、evention of flood disasters for the important significance. Vegetation on the ground to prevent water erosion, surface runoff can reduce the convergence speed and reduce the occurrence of flash floods and damage. Human p
31、roduction, living, construction and other activities on the environment damage and the damage to natural vegetation, increased soil erosion and the environment continues to worsen, as torrential rains into a di</p>
32、<p> 1.2.3 Control measures for flood disasters</p><p> Can be used for prevention of flood disasters engineering measures and non-engineering measures for prevention and treatment. Works include: f
33、lash ditch, debris flow, landslide; Water reinforcement, flash floods and other disasters threaten Soil and Water Conservation District. Non-engineering measures include: meteorological, hydrological monitoring system, w
34、arning system and decision support system construction. The main research projects of non-engineering flood disasters prevention measures.</p><p> 1, the establishment of meteorological and hydrological mon
35、itoring system</p><p> According to sudden flash floods, regional characteristics, in a small basin, in the key areas of debris flow and landslides, increased rainfall and hydrological observation stations,
36、 automatic monitoring of key areas, rainfall warning station layout, real-time monitoring of rainfall, scattered residential areas can be Simple to install rain barrels manual observation, rainfall data collection, analy
37、sis of rainfall intensity on landslides, debris flow impact.</p><p> 2, create a picture, video, multimedia monitoring system</p><p> Because the visual image and video multimedia visibility,
38、giving the effect of immersive, mudslides and landslides in key areas, add images, video multi-media monitoring project, usually transmitted by a certain time interval still pictures, start the camera when in the event o
39、f disaster function, real-time dynamic changes in transport during the scene of the disaster, flood control and disaster assessment to gather first-hand information.</p><p> 3, the establishment of warning
40、system</p><p> Establish an accurate collection, transmission system and warning system, real-time collection of rainfall within the catchment, water level and flow of information, the establishment of mult
41、i-model hydrological, geological prediction system. Its main components include: data analysis, processing system; water situation information, monitoring system; torrential heavy rainfall disaster warning system; flood
42、forecasting and debris flow, landslide hazard warning systems.</p><p> 4, the establishment of decision support system for flood disasters</p><p> Create flash floods and geological disasters
43、database, preparation of plans for the prevention of flood disasters, organized communication system of flood disasters, prevention of flood disasters, and disaster assessment system, command system and so on.</p>
44、<p> 5, the establishment of regulations and policies mountain flood prevention system</p><p> By means of laws and policies for disaster risk areas mandatory for torrent control and management, norm
45、s, constraints caused by various human activities, disaster aggravated disorderly conduct, has been damaged from the root to prevent the continued deterioration of the ecological environment. Improve and perfect the rele
46、vant laws and regulations, in particular, focus on prevention and control to make the area flood disasters Forest and relocation, environment protection and other policies, law</p><p> 6, to raise public aw
47、areness of flood disasters defense</p><p> Activities in areas prone to flash floods, people always thought the string taut defense flash. Awareness training should be prepared in peacetime to enable the ma
48、sses to understand familiar with the alarm signal and the transfer line; when danger comes, or the initial issuance of flash floods, monitoring or a responsible person that the villagers, it is necessary to take rapid-go
49、ng, put gun, phone calls, pull pre-set alarm and other people to know the signal, duty-bound to the downstream villag</p><p> 1.3 The objective of mountain flood warning systems</p><p> Accord
50、ance with the "safe, advanced, efficient and reliable," the goal of building, hydrological monitoring and early warning system for the remote mountain flood prevention systems engineering core, the construction
51、 of the overall objectives are: a stable and reliable application of information collection of advanced equipment and sophisticated means of communication, flood control and basic data collection, real-time within the ba
52、sin and the rainfall regime quickly and accurately sent to the f</p><p> 1.1 山洪災(zāi)害預(yù)警系統(tǒng)研究的重要意義</p><p> 眾所周知,我國是山洪災(zāi)害極其頻繁嚴(yán)重的國家,每年汛期由降雨引發(fā)的山洪、泥石流、滑坡都造成了大量人員傷亡和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失,不僅嚴(yán)重威脅著廣大人民群眾的生命安全,而且嚴(yán)重制約著廣大山丘區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)社
53、會(huì)的發(fā)展和人民群眾的脫貧致富,影響全面建設(shè)小康社會(huì)目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)。</p><p> 據(jù)1950~1990年統(tǒng)計(jì)資料,我國洪澇災(zāi)害死亡人數(shù)共計(jì)22.5萬人,其中山丘區(qū)死亡人數(shù)15.2萬人,占總死亡人數(shù)的67.4%,年均死亡人數(shù)3707人。1992~1998年全國每年因山洪災(zāi)害死亡人數(shù)約為1900~3700人,約占全國洪澇災(zāi)害死亡人數(shù)的62%~69%;1999~2002年山洪災(zāi)害死亡人數(shù)下降為1100~1400人,但
54、占全國洪澇災(zāi)害死亡人數(shù)的比例提高到65%~75%;2003、2004年山洪災(zāi)害分別造成767人和815人死亡,占全國洪澇災(zāi)害死亡人數(shù)的49%和的76%。由此可見,山洪災(zāi)害造成的死亡人數(shù)占全國洪災(zāi)死亡人數(shù)的比例呈逐年遞增趨勢,山洪災(zāi)害造成的危害愈來愈大,損失愈來愈重,已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)前防洪減災(zāi)工作中亟待解決的突出問題。</p><p> 山洪災(zāi)害點(diǎn)多面廣,具有明顯的多發(fā)性、無序的突發(fā)性和強(qiáng)烈的破壞性,防御難度很大。而中
55、國的暴雨區(qū)、山洪災(zāi)害易發(fā)區(qū)和人口居住區(qū)相互重疊,更使山洪造成的損失層層加碼。</p><p> 統(tǒng)計(jì)表明,中國2100多個(gè)縣級(jí)行政區(qū)中,有1500多個(gè)分布在山丘區(qū),受到山洪、泥石流、滑坡災(zāi)害威脅的人口達(dá)7400萬人。</p><p> 2004年9月4日,溫家寶批示:“山洪災(zāi)害頻發(fā),造成損失巨大,已成為防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工作中的一個(gè)突出問題。必須把防治山洪災(zāi)害擺在重要位置,認(rèn)真總結(jié)經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn),研究
56、山洪發(fā)生的特點(diǎn)和規(guī)律,采取綜合防治對策,最大限度地減少災(zāi)害損失?!?lt;/p><p> 2004年,由水利部牽頭,會(huì)同國土資源部、中國氣象局等有關(guān)部門,成立了全國山洪災(zāi)害防治規(guī)劃領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組,開始編制《全國山洪災(zāi)害防治規(guī)劃》。2006年10月,《全國山洪災(zāi)害防治規(guī)劃報(bào)告》通過審查,旨在研究和探討山洪災(zāi)害發(fā)生的特點(diǎn)和規(guī)律,科學(xué)、合理地謀劃防治對策和防治方案,逐步建立和完善防災(zāi)減災(zāi)體系,為中國日趨危殆的山洪災(zāi)害現(xiàn)狀確定了
57、防治規(guī)范。按照規(guī)劃目標(biāo),到2010年,中國將在山洪災(zāi)害重點(diǎn)防治區(qū)初步建成“以監(jiān)測、通信、預(yù)報(bào)、預(yù)警等非工程措施為主,非工程措施與工程措施相結(jié)合”的減災(zāi)體系。</p><p> 1.2 山洪災(zāi)害預(yù)警系統(tǒng)研究方法</p><p> 1.2.1 山洪災(zāi)害主要特點(diǎn)</p><p><b> 1、突發(fā)性強(qiáng)</b></p><p&
58、gt; 山洪災(zāi)害多由暴雨所致,由于暴雨強(qiáng)度大,加上特定的地質(zhì)、地貌等下墊面條件,導(dǎo)致山洪來勢兇猛。河南省山丘區(qū)以變質(zhì)巖、嚴(yán)重風(fēng)化的石灰?guī)r和花崗巖等組成的山體居多,易沖蝕,有利于滑坡、崩塌和泥石流的形成;山丘區(qū)坡陡谷深、高程起伏大,產(chǎn)匯流快。由于河南省境內(nèi)河流眾多,比降大,因此,匯流迅速,洪水漲勢猛,極易產(chǎn)生山洪災(zāi)害。從降雨到山洪形成一般只幾個(gè)小時(shí),甚至在一個(gè)小時(shí)以內(nèi),較難進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)報(bào)和防治。</p><p>
59、 2、來勢兇猛、破壞性強(qiáng)</p><p> 由于山區(qū)河流底坡陡,流程短,流速快,沖擊力強(qiáng),破壞性大,對工礦、交通及居民生命財(cái)產(chǎn)的危害都十分嚴(yán)重。其破壞性強(qiáng)的突出表現(xiàn)是造成人員傷亡和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施損壞嚴(yán)重,恢復(fù)難度很大,有的甚至具有毀滅性。2003年7月上旬淮河南部山區(qū)普降暴雨,商城縣長竹圓鄉(xiāng)北戰(zhàn)村,在7月10日突發(fā)泥石流,流速12.3 m/s,沖毀房屋一間,一家三口全部死亡。</p><p>
60、; 3、季節(jié)性強(qiáng)、頻率高</p><p> 降水是誘發(fā)山洪、滑坡、泥石流的主要原因,在降雨較多的年份地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生的頻次也明顯偏高。汛期4~9月,特別是主汛期6~8月,是山洪災(zāi)害多發(fā)期。在同一流域,甚至同一年內(nèi)有可能發(fā)生多次山洪災(zāi)害。據(jù)湖南省統(tǒng)計(jì),湖南全省汛期發(fā)生的山洪災(zāi)害約占全年山洪災(zāi)害的95%,其中6~8月份發(fā)生的山洪災(zāi)害約占全年山洪災(zāi)害的80%以上。</p><p> 4、區(qū)域性
61、明顯,易發(fā)性強(qiáng)</p><p> 山洪主要發(fā)生于山區(qū)、丘陵區(qū)及崗地,特別是位于暴雨中心的上述地區(qū),暴雨時(shí)極易形成具有沖擊力的地表徑流,導(dǎo)致山洪暴發(fā),形成山洪災(zāi)害。</p><p> 1.2.2 山洪災(zāi)害成因</p><p> 山溪洪水災(zāi)害的發(fā)生主要與氣象、地形地貌和人為因素等有關(guān)。突發(fā)性的暴雨洪水是造成山洪災(zāi)害的主要因素,暴雨形成原因也就是洪水災(zāi)害形成的主要原
62、因,再加之人為因素、地形地貌的影響,更促成了山洪災(zāi)害的形成。</p><p> 1、降水是引發(fā)山洪災(zāi)害的最直接原因</p><p> 降雨年內(nèi)分配不均、年際變化大等特點(diǎn),由于產(chǎn)生降雨的條件不同,汛期具有強(qiáng)度大、極易造成山洪災(zāi)害。從山洪災(zāi)害的分類統(tǒng)計(jì)看,長歷時(shí)高強(qiáng)度降雨及暴雨會(huì)使山洪暴漲、山坡土層含水量飽和,土體軟化、強(qiáng)度減弱,加之雨水沿?cái)嗔鸦驇r石裂隙滲入地下,導(dǎo)致溜塌、蠕動(dòng)、淺層滑坡及
63、泥石流大量發(fā)生,強(qiáng)大的水動(dòng)力條件和河谷中不良地質(zhì)發(fā)育,成為山洪災(zāi)害產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境條件。</p><p> 2、地形是導(dǎo)致山洪災(zāi)害的基礎(chǔ)因素</p><p> 陡峭的地形地貌為洪水、泥石流、滑坡提供了強(qiáng)大的勢能,使降雨產(chǎn)生的徑流順坡而下,向溝谷匯集,快速形成強(qiáng)大的洪峰流量,進(jìn)而誘發(fā)泥石流和滑坡的發(fā)生。</p><p> 3、人類活動(dòng)是加劇山洪災(zāi)害發(fā)生的重要因素<
64、;/p><p> 良好的地面植被可以起到固土保水的作用,對于山洪災(zāi)害的防治具有重要的意義。植被能夠防止流水對地面的沖蝕、能夠減緩地表徑流的匯流速度,減少山洪的發(fā)生與危害。人類生產(chǎn)、生活、工程建設(shè)等活動(dòng)對環(huán)境的破壞,使自然植被損毀,加劇了水土流失和環(huán)境的持續(xù)惡化,為降暴雨轉(zhuǎn)換成山洪災(zāi)害提供了有利條件,成為山洪災(zāi)害形成與發(fā)生不可忽視的重要因素</p><p> 1.2.3 山洪災(zāi)害的防治對策&
65、lt;/p><p> 對山洪災(zāi)害的防治可采用工程措施和非工程措施進(jìn)行防治。工程措施包括:山洪溝、泥石流、滑坡治理;水利工程除險(xiǎn)加固,山洪災(zāi)害威脅區(qū)水土保持治理等。非工程措施包括:氣象、水文監(jiān)測系統(tǒng),預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)和決策支持系統(tǒng)建設(shè)等。本項(xiàng)目主要研究山洪災(zāi)害的非工程防治措施。</p><p> 1、建立氣象、水文監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)</p><p> 根據(jù)山洪突發(fā)性、區(qū)域性的特點(diǎn)
66、,在小流域上,在泥石流和滑坡重點(diǎn)地區(qū),增加降雨和水文觀測站點(diǎn),重點(diǎn)地區(qū)布設(shè)雨量自動(dòng)監(jiān)測預(yù)警站,實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測降雨過程,分散的居民區(qū)則可安裝人工觀測的簡易雨量桶,收集降雨資料,分析降雨強(qiáng)度對山體滑坡、泥石流的影響程度。</p><p> 2、建立圖片、視頻多媒體監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)</p><p> 因?yàn)閳D片和視頻多媒體的直觀可視性,給人身臨其境的效果,在泥石流和滑坡重點(diǎn)地區(qū),增加圖片、視頻多媒體監(jiān)測項(xiàng)目
67、,平時(shí)按一定的間隔時(shí)間傳輸靜態(tài)圖片,在發(fā)生災(zāi)情時(shí)啟動(dòng)攝像功能,實(shí)時(shí)動(dòng)態(tài)傳輸現(xiàn)場災(zāi)情的發(fā)生變化過程,為防汛搶險(xiǎn)和災(zāi)情評(píng)估收集第一手資料。</p><p> 3、建立預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)</p><p> 建立準(zhǔn)確的采集、傳輸系統(tǒng)和預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng),實(shí)時(shí)收集流域內(nèi)的降水、水位和流量等信息,建立多模型的水文、地質(zhì)預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)。其主要構(gòu)成包括:數(shù)據(jù)分析、處理系統(tǒng);水雨情查詢、監(jiān)控系統(tǒng);山洪災(zāi)害強(qiáng)降雨預(yù)警系統(tǒng);
68、洪水預(yù)報(bào)及泥石流、滑坡災(zāi)害預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)等。</p><p> 4、建立山洪災(zāi)害決策支持系統(tǒng)</p><p> 建立山洪及地質(zhì)災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)庫,編制山洪災(zāi)害的預(yù)防預(yù)案,組建山洪災(zāi)害的通訊系統(tǒng),山洪災(zāi)害的防治指揮系統(tǒng)以及災(zāi)害評(píng)估系統(tǒng)等。</p><p> 5、建立山洪災(zāi)害防治的法規(guī)政策體系</p><p> 通過法律和政策的手段強(qiáng)制性進(jìn)行山洪災(zāi)
69、害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)控制和管理,規(guī)范、約束人類各種無序活動(dòng)造成災(zāi)害加劇的行為,從根本上防止已遭破壞的生態(tài)環(huán)境繼續(xù)惡化。健全和完善有關(guān)法律法規(guī),特別要使山洪災(zāi)害重點(diǎn)防治區(qū)內(nèi)退耕還林和移民搬遷、生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)等方面的政策、法律、法規(guī)得到嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行。</p><p> 6、提高公眾的防御山洪災(zāi)害意識(shí)</p><p> 在山洪易發(fā)區(qū)活動(dòng),人們思想上時(shí)刻繃緊防御山洪這根弦。在平時(shí)應(yīng)做好宣傳訓(xùn)練,使群眾了解熟悉報(bào)
70、警信號(hào)和轉(zhuǎn)移路線;一旦險(xiǎn)情來臨或山洪初發(fā),監(jiān)測責(zé)任人或第一個(gè)發(fā)現(xiàn)的村民,就要采取急驟鳴鑼、放銃、打電話、拉警報(bào)器等預(yù)先設(shè)定的群眾知道的信號(hào),責(zé)無旁貸地迅速向下游村組、農(nóng)戶報(bào)警,同時(shí)向當(dāng)?shù)卣胺姥床块T報(bào)告,以便政府和防汛部門立即向下游更大范圍施放警報(bào)、廣播通知或通訊報(bào)警,組織搶險(xiǎn)救援。</p><p> 1.3 山洪災(zāi)害預(yù)警系統(tǒng)建設(shè)目標(biāo)</p><p> 按照“安全、先進(jìn)、高效、可靠”
71、的建設(shè)目標(biāo),水文監(jiān)測及遠(yuǎn)程預(yù)警系統(tǒng)為山洪災(zāi)害防御系統(tǒng)工程的核心,其建設(shè)的總體目標(biāo)為:應(yīng)用穩(wěn)定可靠的信息采集設(shè)備和成熟先進(jìn)的通信手段,收集防汛基礎(chǔ)資料,將流域內(nèi)的實(shí)時(shí)雨情和水情快速準(zhǔn)確地發(fā)送到防汛指揮中心;在當(dāng)前計(jì)算機(jī)軟、硬件基礎(chǔ)上,建設(shè)完善、合理的防汛信息綜合數(shù)據(jù)庫,實(shí)現(xiàn)水情信息的自動(dòng)采集、實(shí)時(shí)傳輸和有序存儲(chǔ),使水情信息在局域網(wǎng)上共享;利用WWW技術(shù),選用B/S模式,建立實(shí)用、可靠、高效、先進(jìn)的信息查詢顯示系統(tǒng);研制流域洪水預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)
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