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1、遼寧師范大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文近50a大連市氣候變化及其適應(yīng)度評(píng)價(jià)姓名:崔利芳申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別:碩士專業(yè):自然地理學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師:任學(xué)慧201205近50a大連市氣候變化及其適應(yīng)度評(píng)價(jià)ClimateChangeofDalianCityinRecent50YearsandAssessmentofAdaptationAbstractToanalyzethespatialandtemporalvariationoftemperature,precipita

2、tionandwindspeedbylineartrendmethod,MannKendallstatisticaltestandGISsptialanalysis,andperiodicvariationbywaveletanalysisbasedonbasicmeteorologicaldatafrom19602010inDalianTheresultsindicatethat:annuallymeantemperatureincr

3、easingsignificantly謝t11therateof027。C/10ainrecent50years,andwarmingmainlyowingtominimumtemperatureInspace,warmingtendencygraduallyweakenfromsouthtoeastnorth;precipitationgenerallydescending,intermsofimerdecadal,undergoin

4、gtheprocessof“decreasingincreasingdecreasingincreasing”,decreasingamplitudebiggerinnortheastandsouthwest,yetsmallerininterior;windspeedslowdownquicklyinfluctuation,particularlyalmostdecreasinglinerlyafter1990sInspace,the

5、southandnorthstrengthening,butincreasingamlitudesmaller,therestweakeningInaddition,periodicoscillationoftemperatureisaround20years,7yearsand3yearsPrecipitationsuchasabout20years,10yearsand4years,windspeedforabout25years,

6、10yearsand3years,relativehumidityforabout10years,6yearsand3yearsInthecontextofmoreobviouswarminganddryingtrendofDalianclimate,accordingtotheprincipleofdynamiccouplingamongsystems,society,economy,agriculture,resourceanden

7、vironmentsystemareselectedasthesubsystemforassessmentofadaptationtoDalianclimatechangeFirstly,thecomprehensivedevelopmentlevelsofclimatesystemandsubsystemsduring20002010arecalculatedbyprincipalcomponentanalysis(PCA)Thent

8、headaptationdegreeofDalianclimatechangeisdecidedbythefunctionofmembershipgradeinfuzzymathematicsTheresultsshow:ThecomprehensivelevelofDalianclimatesystemfluctuatesbiggerandascendsobviouslyThedevelopmentlevelsofassessment

9、subsystemarealsoinrisingtendencyMoreovernotablestagecharacteristicexistsinthemThecomprehensivelevelofclimatesystemandfourassessmentsubsystemisalllower,buttheformerhigherthanthelatterduring20002004;thedevelopmentlevelofal

10、lobviouslyascending,buttheformerlowerthanthelatterduring2005—2009TheadaptationdegreeofDalianclimatechangerelativetoevaluationsubsystemisinfluctuationAnditisindecreasingtrendrelativetosocietydevelopmentandecoenvironmentqu

11、ality,yetinincreasingtrendrelativetoagricultureandeconomydevelopmentbefore2007,afterthatrisingqmcklyHowever,theadaptationdegreeofeconomy,society,agricultureandecoenvironmentsubsystemrelativetoclimatesystemgenerallydescen

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