22066.近50a大連市氣候變化及其適應(yīng)度評(píng)價(jià)

1、遼寧師范大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文近50a大連市氣候變化及其適應(yīng)度評(píng)價(jià)姓名：崔利芳申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：自然地理學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：任學(xué)慧201205近50a大連市氣候變化及其適應(yīng)度評(píng)價(jià)ClimateChangeofDalianCityinRecent50YearsandAssessmentofAdaptationAbstractToanalyzethespatialandtemporalvariationoftemperature，precipita

2、tionandwindspeedbylineartrendmethod，MannKendallstatisticaltestandGISsptialanalysis，andperiodicvariationbywaveletanalysisbasedonbasicmeteorologicaldatafrom19602010inDalianTheresultsindicatethat：annuallymeantemperatureincr

3、easingsignificantly謝t11therateof027。C／10ainrecent50years，andwarmingmainlyowingtominimumtemperatureInspace，warmingtendencygraduallyweakenfromsouthtoeastnorth；precipitationgenerallydescending，intermsofimerdecadal，undergoin

4、gtheprocessof“decreasingincreasingdecreasingincreasing”，decreasingamplitudebiggerinnortheastandsouthwest，yetsmallerininterior；windspeedslowdownquicklyinfluctuation，particularlyalmostdecreasinglinerlyafter1990sInspace，the

5、southandnorthstrengthening，butincreasingamlitudesmaller，therestweakeningInaddition，periodicoscillationoftemperatureisaround20years，7yearsand3yearsPrecipitationsuchasabout20years，10yearsand4years，windspeedforabout25years，

6、10yearsand3years，relativehumidityforabout10years，6yearsand3yearsInthecontextofmoreobviouswarminganddryingtrendofDalianclimate，accordingtotheprincipleofdynamiccouplingamongsystems，society，economy，agriculture，resourceanden

7、vironmentsystemareselectedasthesubsystemforassessmentofadaptationtoDalianclimatechangeFirstly，thecomprehensivedevelopmentlevelsofclimatesystemandsubsystemsduring20002010arecalculatedbyprincipalcomponentanalysis(PCA)Thent

8、headaptationdegreeofDalianclimatechangeisdecidedbythefunctionofmembershipgradeinfuzzymathematicsTheresultsshow：ThecomprehensivelevelofDalianclimatesystemfluctuatesbiggerandascendsobviouslyThedevelopmentlevelsofassessment

9、subsystemarealsoinrisingtendencyMoreovernotablestagecharacteristicexistsinthemThecomprehensivelevelofclimatesystemandfourassessmentsubsystemisalllower，buttheformerhigherthanthelatterduring20002004；thedevelopmentlevelofal

10、lobviouslyascending，buttheformerlowerthanthelatterduring2005—2009TheadaptationdegreeofDalianclimatechangerelativetoevaluationsubsystemisinfluctuationAnditisindecreasingtrendrelativetosocietydevelopmentandecoenvironmentqu

11、ality，yetinincreasingtrendrelativetoagricultureandeconomydevelopmentbefore2007，afterthatrisingqmcklyHowever，theadaptationdegreeofeconomy，society，agricultureandecoenvironmentsubsystemrelativetoclimatesystemgenerallydescen