洪澤湖以上中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)水預(yù)報(bào)模型研究及應(yīng)用.pdf

1、河海大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文洪澤湖以上中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)水預(yù)報(bào)模型研究及應(yīng)用姓名：張領(lǐng)見(jiàn)申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專(zhuān)業(yè)：水利工程指導(dǎo)教師：李致家季紅飛20070501TheStudyOnModleofTheMediumtermandlongtermHydrologyRunoffForcastingUpwardsHongzeLakeCandidate：Zhanglingjian^dvisor：ProLiZhijia一E暉field：HydraulicEnginee

2、ringAbsh薯ct：nuaiheRiverisoneofthesevengreatestRiversinChina10ngzeLakeislocatedinthemiddlereachesterminalofauaihemainstream，Acceptingwatercomefromtheupperandmiddlereacheswith158000時(shí)drainagearesItisakeyprojectforregulating

3、middleandloverreacheswatervolumeHengzeLakenotonlytakesonflood—controldutyinthelowerreachofHuaiheRiver，butalsobecomesthelargeststoragereservoirofnorthregioninJiangshuprovinceThestoragevolumedirectlyaffectsthewatersupplyfo

4、rnorthregioninAnhuiprovinceAsoneoftheimportantnonprojectmeans，themediumtermandlongtermrunoffforecastingneeddevelopednecessarilyandurgentlyThepapermakessomeresearchonthisissue，andgainssomecheeringresultsThemediumtermandlo

5、ngtermrunoffforecastingisthetechnicalwaytoforecastthefuturedailyortendaysrunoffprocessaccordingtotheprecedingconditionofresearchbasin，theinputrunoffprocessofforecastingcrosssectionandrelevanthydrometeorologyfactors，throu

6、ghstatisticandanalyticmethodsandphysicalgeneticanalyzingAtpresentthepractic曲lemedium—termandlongtermhydrologyforecastingmethodisamulti—statisticforecastingtechniquebasedonprecedingcircumfluenceanalysis，seatemperaturechar

7、acteranalysisandhydrologyelementsanalysisaboutforecastingbasinThepaperadoptsthemulti‘。statisticforecastingmethodtoforecastinputrunoffoftendaysandmonthwhichdependsonthehydrometeorologycharacterofthebasinupwardstheHongzeLa

8、keThestatisticforecastingmethodinvolvesmanymethodsandmodelsincludingthegraduallyoptimizingmethod，stableARMA(p，q)model，lineardynamicsystemmodel，meteorologyfactorsmethodandsoonAfterforecastingthroughstatisticforecastingmet

9、hod，wecandecidetheforecastingresults7weightofeachmethodthroughsimulatingprecision，andweightedaverageeverymethod’sforecastingresult，then，wecangetasyntheticalandrelativelyreasonableforecastingresultThepaperselectsthreefact

10、orstheseatemperatureofnorthernPacificOcean，the500hpaand100hpaairpressureonnorthernhomisphereasthemeteorologyfactors，andusesstatisticforecastingmethodtoforecasttheinputrunoffvolumeonthebasinupwardstheHongzelakeGoodeffecta

11、regainedonforecastingtheinputrunoffvolumeof2002and2003throughintroducingintotheforecastingfunctionsbuildinthispaperandtheforecastingresultscanbereferencedinactualwerkKeywords：hongzelaketherunoffforecastingmodelstructurew