多維聯合概率理論在防洪工程中的應用及風險分析.pdf

1、9S0593分類號密級⑨研究生學位論文多維聯合概率理論在防洪工程中的應用及風險分析申請學位級別研究生姓名逯≯壘軍指導教師姓名文IJ德輔墼捶碩士專業(yè)名稱港口、海岸及近海王矍詮它答擗日期2006年5／UUO月論文答辯日期平盟20日學位授予日期2006生魚旦中國海洋大學MultivariableJointProbabilityTheoryBasedDefenceFloodandRiskAnalysisAbstractChinaThreeGor

2、gesProjectisnotonlythelargestwatercontrolprojectintheworldbutalsothekeyprojectforexploitationandmanagementoftheYangtzeRiverItsdesignfloodpeakandvolumearerelatedtothesafetyofthemiddleanddowuriverplainsagainstfloodcatastro

3、pheThemiddleanddowuriverareaisadenselypopulatedandeconomicallydevelopedarea，inwhichYichang，Wuhan，Jiujiang，Wuhu，Nanjing，Zhenjiang，Nantong，ShanghaiandotherlargeandmediumsizedcitiesarelocatedSothatdesignfloodoftheThreeGorge

4、sProjectisthemostimportantproblemforlivesandpropertiesofhundredsmillionspeopleYangtzeRiverfloodresultsfromrainstormsandupperfiverfloodaboveYichangaccountsforthemainpartofthemiddleanddownriverflood，sohowwecanreasonablypre

5、dictmajortributariesfloodoftheupperRiveristhekeyproblemtodesignfloodforthisprojectThemultivariablejointprobabilitytheoryisappliedtodesignfloodoftheThreeGorgesdamforthefirsttimeAndthestochasticsimulationtechniqueisusedtoc

6、alculatefourvariablesjointprobabilitydistributionThedifferentcombinationandthemostadversecombinationofmajortributariesfloodoreobtainedandcorrespondingdesignfloodofdifferentjointreturnperiodsarecalculatedTheresultscanbeus

7、edtiskanalysisandfloodcontrolofthisprojectTheThreeGorgesprojectisenormouslyinvestedandtechnicallycomplicatedThetmpredictedinterferencefactors，internalandextemal，arecalledengineeringrisk，whichexistfromprojectdetermination

8、，designtoimplementationofthewholeprocessThispaperonlyconsiderstheuncertaintyofdesignfloodresultedbyvariousrandomfactorsinthefloodfrequencycalculation，andthentheriskanalysisofdesignfloodoftheThreeGorgesiscalculatedbythree