新型城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中山東省政府購(gòu)買(mǎi)估算及其對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響.pdf

1、分類(lèi)號(hào)：F812.7密級(jí)：UDC：338.1學(xué)校代碼：11065碩士學(xué)位論文新型城鎮(zhèn)化新型城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中進(jìn)程中山東省政府購(gòu)買(mǎi)估算及其對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響山東省政府購(gòu)買(mǎi)估算及其對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響崔鈴敏指導(dǎo)教師丁秀英副教授學(xué)科專(zhuān)業(yè)名稱(chēng)西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)論文答辯日期2016年5月28日AbstractConsumptionisthesoleendpurposefallproductioninlongterm.Consumptionisaffectedbygovern

2、mentpurchase.theconsumptionrateofShongprovinceisverylowsince1978，whichisnotconducivetoeconomicstabilityimprovinglivingstards.Oneofthepurposeof“Thenewurbanizationplanningfrom2014to2020ofShongprovince”istoexpconsumption.Bu

3、ttherearetwoproblems.First，thecompletionofthenewurbanizationgoalsrequiresmatchinggovernmentpurchase.Second，thereisnoconsistentconclusionwhetherthegovernmentwillincreaseconsumption.Therefe，thisstudyestimatesthescaleofgove

4、rnmentpurchaseinthebackgroundofthenewurbanizationanalyzewhethertherelationshipofgovernmentpurchaseconsumptionisalternativecomplementary.Usingeconometrictechniquestoestimatethegovernmentpurchaseunderthenewurbanizationback

5、ground.TherelationshipbetweenurbanizationrategovernmentpurchasesinShongprovinceisanalyzedinaVARframewkbytwoempiricalapproaches，variancedecompositionGrangercausalitytest，anpredictionofpurchasescaleovertheperiodfrom2014to2

6、020isalsomade.TheresultsshowthattherelationshipbetweenurbanizationrategovernmentpurchaseinShongprovinceissignificantlypositive.IndertoachievethenewurbanizationgoalofShongprovincein2020，anannualaverageincreaseof45，569bill

7、ionRMBingovernmentpurchasesisneeded.BasedonthreedepartmentsSolowmodel，dynamicsimulationofthegovernmentpurchaseonconsumptionisdrawn.Usingtheestimatedsizeofgovernmentpurchase，theparametersofthethreedepartmentsSolowbasicdif

8、ferentialequationisestimated.Basingtheequation，theeffectofgovernmentpurchaseonconsumptionisdynamicallysimulatedunderthebackgroundofwithoutconsideringthenewurbanizationconsideringthenewurbanization.Theresultsshowthatthere