基于相空間重構技術的我國旱澇時空分布研究.pdf

1、南京信息工程大學碩士學位論文基于相空間重構技術的我國旱澇時空分布研究姓名：萬仕全申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：氣象學指導教師：王盤興封國林20050501AbstractSincealongperiodoftimestudiesonprecipitationarelimitedinusingtraditionallinearstatisticalandespeciallywhenanalyzingtheregionalofprecipitat

2、iontheocularestimateandEmpiricalOrthogonaldecompositionmethodsetc.aregenerallyused..Howeverprecipitationseriesisa(EOE)勺!picalnonlinearorchaoticobservationsthetypicalstatisticalanalysismeansisnotabletofullyminethedynamica

3、lsignalofthetimeseries.Inthelightoftherecentresearchachievementsofnonlinearscienceandinthecontextofthedailyprecipitationdatafrom1951to2000at740stationscompiledbytheNationalClimatecenterthedynamicspaceofprecipitationateac

4、hstationisfirstreconstructedus噸thetimelagmetho氏andtheeiimflficcharactersofsummerprecipitationinthemonsoonareaofChinaarethenanalyzedus噸dynamicalcorrelationfactorexponentQ少ldingthefivedynamicclimatecharacteristicregionswho

5、sepropertydifersfromthetraditional“precipitationpattern“i.e.1)Jianghuaipatterncovering65stations2)SouthChinapaterncovering49stations3)NorthChinapatterncovering59stations4)NortheastChinapaterncovering27stationsand5)Tibeta

6、nplateaupaterncovering53stations.Thestatisticaldatashowthatweather印rec印itation)血thefivedynamicclimatecharacteristicregionssimultaneouslybecomesdrywetandnormalthatistosayeachregionpossessesacommonspatialtemporalcharacteri

7、sticstructure.Furtheranalysisofphysical二‘hanismssuggeststhattheJianghuaipatternandSouthChinapatternarecloserelatedwithENSOwhichmayresultsfromtheefectoftheIndiaEastAsia(IEA)teleconnectionpaternamongtheotherthreepaternsNor

8、thandNortheastChinapaternsarepositivelyrelatedwiththeridgelinepositionofsubtropicalhighbuttheENSOshowsnoobviousinfluenceonthethreepaternswhichmaybeassociatedwiththattheregionsaremainlyoutoftheweakimpactareaofENSOfiutherm