金融學(xué)專業(yè)外文翻譯----預(yù)測和管理供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（節(jié)選）

1、Chapter 4: Predicting and Managing Supply Chain Risks 1中文 2930 字Chapter 4: Predicting and Managing Supply Chain RisksSamir DaniWolfson School of Mechanical and Manufacturing, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leice

2、stershire, LE113TU, UK4.3 Risks in the Supply ChainIn today’s business world a supply chain may be stretched out across the globe in order to provide the customer with the product at the lowest cost and highest quality

3、. The supply chains are thus exposed to a whole new set of factors, which can create chaos and disruption. Local political turmoil, the ever increasing complexity and uncertainty of weather conditions, terrorism, count

4、erfeiting, and a plethora of other such issues create external risks in the supply chain. But this does not mean that the supply chain is devoid of any risks internally. Supplier issues, strikes, quality problems, and

5、 logistics issues are more internal operational risks, which need a different level of mitigation. Zsidisin (2003) suggested that risk in a supply chain context can be defined as the potential occurrence of an inciden

6、ce associated with inbound supply in which the result is the inability of the purchasing organization to meet customer demand.Christopher and Peck (2003), taking inspiration from Mason-Jones and Towill (1998), have cate

7、gorised supply chain risk into five categories:1. Internal to the firm: Process, Control 2. External to the firm but Internal to the Supply network: Demand, Supply 3. External to the network: EnvironmentalPeck (2005, 200

8、6) suggests that the sources and drivers of supply chain risk operate at several different levels. These are intricately linked as elements of a system, and are described within four discrete levels of analysis:1. Level

9、 1 – value stream/product or process. 2. Level 2 – assets and infrastructure dependencies. 3. Level 3 – organisations and inter-organisational networks. 4. Level 4 – the environment.Each level reflects quite different pe

10、rspectives but together these levels cover elements of a supply chain and the environment within which they are embedded (Peck 2005). This has also been suggested by Faisal et al. (2006) that risk sources are the envir

11、onmental, organizational or supply chain related variables that cannot be predicted with certainty and that affect the supply chain-outcome variables.Spekman and Davis (2004) suggested dimensions for understanding suppl

12、y chain risks incorporating:1. Physical movement of goods 2. Flow of information 3. Flow of money 4. Security of the firm’s internal information systemsChapter 4: Predicting and Managing Supply Chain Risks 31. Carrying b

13、uffer stock and improving inventory management; 2. Using alternative sources of supply; 3. Use of contracts to manage price fluctuations; and 4. Quality initiatives.These suggestions reinforce research conducted by Smelt

14、zer and Siferd (1998) who concluded that risks associated with poor selection of suppliers can be reduced by developing quality certification programs and auditing the suppliers to assure that they meet the required st

15、andards. Lee and Whang (2003) developed a model to show how firms can reduce inventory due to less inspection time. Another aspect of the research conducted around minimising supplier related risk is concerned with th

16、e number of suppliers. Both Sheffi (2001) and Kleindorfer and Saad (2005) suggested the use of multiple suppliers as a way to reduce certain supply chain risks.Since the beginning of the current century, companies are

17、increasingly recogni- sing the importance of risk assessment programs and are using different methods, ranging from formal quantitative models to informal qualitative plans, to assess supply chain risks. Some of the ena

18、blers for better supply chain risk management include Lean, Six Sigma and Agile philosophies (Christopher and Rutherford 2004; Chapell and Peck 2005); Event Management software (Malykhina 2005); and Radio Frequency Ide

19、ntification (RFID) (Niemeyer et al. 2003). These provide better visibility, velocity and more effective process control (Christopher and Lee 2001).According to Norrman and Jansson (2004), the stages of the risk manageme

20、nt process can vary from risk identification/analysis (or estimation) via risk assess- ment (or evaluation) to different ways of risk management. Juttner et al. (2003) suggest that supply chain risk management is t

21、he process of identifying and managing risks in the supply chain through a co-ordinated approach amongst supply chain members in order to achieve the supply chain objectives. Researchers have considered supply chai

22、n risk management from various perspectives (Gaudenzi and Borghesi 2006): financial and corporate governance perspective (Meulbroek 2002), perspective of business continuity and crisis management (Adams et al. 2002),

23、the ability to react quickly to ensure continuity (van Hoek 2003; Rowbottom 2004), reputation management perspective (O’Rourke 2004), perspective oriented towards the goal of reliability (Moore 2002), and the achievem

24、ent of the best trade-off between quality controls (through inspections) and process self-control (Svensson 2002), often utilising the Six Sigma approach and tools (Eckes 2001).Some other approaches to supply chain ris

25、k management involve managing risks affecting: specific supply chain levels (Cavinato 2004), systems inside and outside the chain, such as the Information system (Finch 2004), specific projects (Halman and Keizer 1994)