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1、1KeynesGlobalImbalancesInternationalMoaryRefmToday凱恩斯、全球失衡與當(dāng)今國際貨幣體系改革凱恩斯、全球失衡與當(dāng)今國際貨幣體系改革RobertSkidelskyVijayJoshi羅伯特斯基德爾斯基維杰喬希RebalancingtheGlobalEconomy:APrimer[啟蒙書雷管底漆引線]fPolicymakingbyStijnClaessensSimonEvetBernardHoe
2、kman(eds)|WednesdayJune232010ThischapterarguesthattheKeynesPlanof1941fdealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsianUSimbalancestoday.JustasthefirstBrettonWoodssystemrestedona“grbargain”bet
3、weentheUSBritainanewBrettonWoodswouldtestthestatesmanshipoftheUSChina.TheProblemofGlobalImbalancesAsthewldtentativelyscrambles[快速爬行匍匐前進(jìn)攀登]outofthewstrecessionsinceWldWarIIthefutureofthewldmoarysystemremainsfirmlyofftheag
4、enda.Theglobaldownturnhadmanyinteractingcausesbutatenable[站得住腳的；合理的]viewisthattheaccumulationofreservesbyahfulofcountriesinEastAsiathedleEastplayedakeypermissiveroleinthecollapse.Between20032009(measurable)globalreserves
5、increasedfrom$2.6trillionto$6.8trillion–anaverageannualrateofincreaseofabout15%atatimewhenglobalGDPgrewatanannualrateof4.4%.Thisamountedtoabigincreaseindeflationarypressure.Howeverthefactthatthereserveswereheldmainlyindo
6、llarsallowedtheUStoavoiddeflationinsteadruna“Keynesian”domesticpolicywhichsetthestagefanunsustainableassetconsumptionboom.InshttherewasanexusconnectingreserveaccumulationbyChinaexpansionarymoaryfiscalpolicyintheUS.Thepur
7、poseofthischapteristohowthattheKeynesPlanof1941fdealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsianUSimbalancestoday.Itproposestwomechanismsfalleviatingthecurrentproblemof“symmetricalnonadjustme
8、nt”.ThefirstpartoftheessaywillexaminethehisticalcontextoftheKeynesPlanthebreakdownoftheBrettonWoodssystemthesecondwillanalysethepresentproblemofnonadjustmentstepswhichcanbetakentoovercomeit.TheKeynesPlanof1941Inthe1920sK
9、eyneshadcometoseedeflationasthemaincauseofBritishunemploymentthemainsourceofdeflationarypressureastheunbalancedcreditpositionoftheUS.Intheytheinternationalgoldstardwhichwasthecurrencyregimeofthetimeprovidedfautomaticsymm
10、etricaladjustmentofcurrentaccountimbalances.Priceswouldautomaticallyriseinthegoldgainingcountrieswouldautomaticallyfallinthegoldlosingcountriesthusrestingthe3prohibitcapitalexpts.Theywouldalsobegedinterestonexcessivedebi
11、ts.Ifallcountrieswereinperfectbalanceattheyear’sendthesumofbancbalanceswouldbeexactlyzero.TheKeynesplanwasvetoedbytheUSwhichwasnotpreparedtoallowits“hardearned”surplusestobeautomaticallyatthedisposalof“profligate”[揮霍的，放蕩
12、的]debtcountries.InsteadtheBrettonWoodsAgreementof1944setupanInternationalMoaryFundtoprovideshttermfinancialassistancefcountriesintemparybalanceofpaymentsdifficulties.TheIMFwasafundnotabankintowhichmemberswouldpaycontribu
13、tionsquotasmadeupofgolddomesticcurrencies.(ThetotalresourcesoftheFundweresetat$8bnasopposedto$25bn.fKeynes’ICB).TheFundwouldsupplyfeigncurrenciestomembersuptothelimitoftheirquotasprovidedtheycrectedtheirdomesticpolicies.
14、Parvaluesofcurrencieswouldbefixedintermsofgoldwhichcouldbealteredonlytocrecta“fundamentaldisequilibrium”.BoththeKeynesPlantheIMFsystemreliedoncapitalcontrolstopreventthedestabilisingflowsof“hotmoney”.Thecrucialpointwasth
15、atwhileacceptingtheideaoffixedbutadjustableexchangeratestheFundprovidednomechanismtostoppersistentreserveaccumulation.Itupheld[支持，維持，贊同，確認(rèn)]thatisthethodoxdoctrineofdebtadjustmenttothatextentfailedtosolvetheKeynesproblemo
16、fpersistentcredithoarding.Thecontrastbetweenthetwoplanswasdeliberate.FKeynestheBritishtheproblemwhichbroughtdownthegoldstardin1931hadarisenfromtherefusalofthesurpluscountriestospendtheirsurplusesftheAmericansithadarisenf
17、romthemoaryindisciplineofthedeficitcountries.TheBrettonWoodssysteminpracticeThattheBrettonWoodsfixedexchangeratesystemwhichlastedfrom1949to1971didnotreproducethedeflationaryacteroftheinterwarsystemwasduetothegeneralcommi
18、tmentofgovernmentstofullemploymentpoliciesbackedbythe“dishoarding”policiesoftheUS.Americafloodedthe“free”wldwithdollarstosuchanextentthatbythelate1960sitwasstartingtorunabalanceoftradedeficititself.Thebootwasnowontheothe
19、rfootbuttheneedfthedeficitcountry(nowtheUSA)todeflatewascircumventedbytheroleofthedollarasthewld’smainreserveasset.AsitstradedeficitwidenedtheUSAprintedanincreasingquantityofdollarstocoveritsunrequited[單方面的，單相思的]impts.Th
20、esurpluscountriesaccumulatedAmericandollarliabilitieswhichtheyinvestedinUSTreasurybonds.TheUSdidnothavetorestrictdomesticcreditbyraisinginterestratessincethedollarsitprintedcamebacktoit.Intheabsenceofwhatwouldhavebeenama
21、jdeflationaryfcethewldeconomyboomedftwentyyears.TheflawinthesystemaspointedoutbyProfessTriffinofYaleUniversitywasthattheincreaseintheliabilitiesofthekeycurrencycountrywasboundtoraisedoubtsaboutitsabilitytoredeemtheseliab
22、ilitiesingold.Attheendofthe1960stheFrenchstartedconvertingtheirdollarreservesintogold.Thisbroughtaboutthepredictedcollapseofthegoldexchangestardin1971.Thedollarbecameinconvertible.Anewsupplementaryinternationalreservecur
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