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1、0外文文獻翻譯外文文獻翻譯原文：ThemacroeconomicimpactofrefmingaPAYGsystemAmajconcernofpolicymakersinmanycountriesparticularlyamongthoseintheEuropeanUnionisthatdemographicshiftwilldisruptnationalsocialsecuritysystems.Howeverincreasingde

2、mographicpressuremustnotputintoquestiontheimptanceofsocialsecuritypensionsystemsinprovidingsecuredurableeffectivesocialprotectionguaranteeingadecentstardoflivinginoldage.Aspartoftheresponsetothisthedevelopmentofcomplemen

3、taryoccupationalretirementpensionschemesisalreadytakingplace.ManyEuropeancountrieshaverecognizedtheneedtoaddresstheprofoundpublicpolicyimplicationsofageingpopulations.In1999theEconomicPolicyCommitteeestablishedtheAgeingW

4、kingGroupspecificallytoexaminetheeconomicbudgetaryimplicationsofageing.ThereptpresentedbytheAWGincludeddemographicprojectionsprojectionsftheimpactofageingpopulationsonpublicpensionexpendituresonpublicexpendituresonhealth

5、longtermcare.Italsoprovidedananalysisofhowtheseprojectionscouldbeusedtoexaminetheoverallsustainabilityofpublicfinances.Asaresultmanychangeshavebeenintroducedtothefunctioningofsocialsecuritysystemsindertominimizesomeofthe

6、projectedvalues.Despitethisthereisnounanimityonthefecastresultsconcerningfinancialsustainability.FeldsteindiscussesapossiblesolutiontothedoubleproblemoftherisingcostofpensionsofensuringaEuropeanUnionfreelabourmarket.Thep

7、roposalcombinesaninvestmentbasedsystemofindividualaccountswithanotionaldefinedcontributionsystemfinancedbyPAYGtaxes.Aspresentedsuchamixedsystemeliminatestheriskofverylowlevelsofretirementincomebutincreasesinvestmentrisk.

8、FeldsteindescribestherisksimpliedbyamixedsystemofsocialsecuritypensionbenefitsfinancedthroughdifferentcombinationsofPAYGtaxespersonalretirementaccountsavingsarguingthattheseriskscanbereducedbyusingprivatemarket2underlyin

9、gdeficitsin2002.Cerdaarguesthatasocialsecurityrefmbasedonindividualaccountsmightresolvethefinancialchallengesofageingsocietiesdespitetheconsiderablefiscalcostsincurredbythetransitiontoanindividualaccountsystem.Yetintheco

10、ntextoftheUnitedStatesShillerfecastsdisappointingperfmanceresultsfasocialsecuritysystembasedonpersonalaccounts.ThiscontrastswithotherresearchfocusingontheherlsthatshowsthatthetransitionfromacombinedPAYGprefundedsystemtoa

11、mainlyprefundedsystemisaviablealternative.Inacontextofdemographicchangeourresearchaimstobringadditionalevidencetothedebateonsocialsecuritysystemfinancialsustainabilitybylookingattheimpactsofvarioustypesofrefmoptions.Then

12、ewversionoftheHERPmodelwasusedtosimulatethemacroeconomiceffectsofsocialsecuritysystemrefmsaswellastheirimpactonfinancialsustainability.Themagnitudeanalysisoftheserefmsisbasedontwoscenarios:?Baselinescenario：representingt

13、hesimulationofthesocialsecuritysystemwithoutrefms.ThisscenariocrespondstothetrajectyobservedinthePtugueseeconomyfrom1977until2045toaprojectionoftheeconomyfrom2005until2050withannualdata.?Alternativescenarios：representing

14、hypotheticaltrajectiesoftheeconomygivensocialsecuritysystemrefms.Thesescenariosdifferaccdingtothespecificrefmimplementedputalternativelytoaparticularvariableshock.Thebaselinescenarioinadditiontothemajityofthealternatives

15、cenariosrespectsapoliticalfiscalrulethatthepublicdeficitisalwaysapproximately3percentofGDPfrom2005to2050withadecreasingtrend.Thisrestrictionisintroducedwiththeaimofeliminatingthepossibilitythatthedeficitcouldreachvaluest

16、hatareunacceptablewithintheambitofEuropeanUnionregulationsasexpressedintheMaastrichtTreaty.Withthisruleweplacethefiscalburdenonprivateincomeineachyeardependentonthegapbetweenthepublicdeficitwithwithoutshockinthepreviousy

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