電力變壓器故障風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和維修策略的研究.pdf

1、華北電力大學(xué)（保定）碩士學(xué)位論文電力變壓器故障風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和維修策略的研究姓名：商雷申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：電工理論與新技術(shù)指導(dǎo)教師：賈秀芳20090515華北電力大學(xué)高校教師在職攻讀碩士學(xué)位論文摘要摘要基于變壓器風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估而制定變壓器的檢修計(jì)劃對(duì)變壓器安全、經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行有著重要的實(shí)際意義。本文提出了一種基于可拓評(píng)價(jià)法和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣相結(jié)合的變壓器檢修新方法。主要內(nèi)容包括：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源分析、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)失效概率分析、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)失效嚴(yán)重度評(píng)估、電力變壓器的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和檢修策略

2、。首先，采用統(tǒng)計(jì)方法，將變壓器設(shè)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為23種，根據(jù)各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率統(tǒng)計(jì)失效可能性，將可能性劃分為5個(gè)等級(jí)；其次，研究了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)失效嚴(yán)重度的5個(gè)影響因素，并通過運(yùn)用可拓工程法和層次分析法相結(jié)合的方法，將各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的失效嚴(yán)重度劃分為了5個(gè)等級(jí)；再次，建立了變壓器風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣，并將矩陣劃分為4等級(jí)，并通過風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估提出相應(yīng)的檢修策略；最后，通過實(shí)例分析，驗(yàn)證了本文方法的正確性與可行性，并開發(fā)了基于VisualStudio電力變壓器風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估專家系統(tǒng)。關(guān)

3、鍵詞：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)檢修；綜合評(píng)估；變壓器ABSTRACTThetransf0rmer’smaintenanceschedulingplanedbasedontransf6rmerriskassessmenthasimportantpracticalsignificancetotransf6rmersecurityandeconomicoperationThepaperproposedonenewtransf6rmerriskmaint

4、enancemethodbasedonextensionassessmentapproachandriskmatrixThemaincontentincludes：risksourceanalysis，riskfailureprobab訂ityanalysis，riskexpirationseVerityappraisal，powertransfbrmer’sriskassessmentandoVerhaulstrategyFirstl

5、y，usesthestatisticalmethod，thetransf6rmerequipmentriskisdividedinto23kinds，andaccordingtotheprobabilitystatisticsexpirationpossibility，thepossibilityisdividedinto5fanksSecondly，studiedthe5influencingfactoraboutriskexpira

6、tionsevefitV，andthroughcombiningextensionengineeringlawandtheanalytichierarchylaw，thefailureseriousdegreeofrisksourceisdividedfbf5ranksOnceagainthetransfbrmerriskmatrixisestablished，anddividedinto4ranks。andproposethecorr

7、espondingriskoverhaulstrategythroughtheriskassessmentFinally，throughtheexampleanalysis，themethodisconfirmedaccuracyandfbasibility，anddevelopedpowertransfbrmerriskassessmentexpertsystembasedonVisualStudioShangLei(electric